NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

The polls are hilarious

Michigan might be the worst top-10 team in week 6 ever

Notre Dame being ranked ahead of Clemson and USC in the Coaches???

LSU is ranked 3 spots ahead of USC? LMAO jesus christ

Ole Miss best win is to Wake Forest and they lost to Kentucky at home and they're 11th???

Every time two big-12 teams play, the winner moves up like 2 slots and the loser drops like 8

The Coaches had Arizona ranked #18, Kansas State #15 and Utah #10

Arizona goes on the road and splits games with K State and Utah and now Arizona is unkranked lol

It'll be interesting to see over a few years how the breakdown of seeds ends up. Like, is the #5 seed more likely to be a team like 2022 TCU that goes 12-0 in a lesser conference and loses the Conf Title Game or one of the Bama/Georgia perennial powerhouses.

THURSDAY
19:00:00 Texas State -14
19:00:00 Troy 14.5

21:00:00 Sam Houston -10.5
21:00:00 UTEP 11

FRIDAY
19:00:00 Jacksonville State -14.5
19:00:00 Kennesaw State 14.5

19:30:00 Houston 16
19:30:00 TCU -16

21:00:00 Syracuse 6.5
21:00:00 UNLV -6.5
I've been firing UNLV playoff every week from 60-1 on down. I still don't get how they are 12-1 this week. They're a touchdown favorite to pick up their THIRD P5 win (afaik they'd be the only G5 team with even 2), they just steamrolled Fresno, and they were firing all all three phases. Their new QB looks excellent. The only thing keeping them from being a lock is that Boise has also looked great, and they'll have to beat them at least once to secure the bid.

21:00:00 Michigan State 24.5
21:00:00 Oregon -24
Oregon's narrow win over Boise doesn't look so bad now. Michigan State was feisty for a bit against Ohio State, and if they run hot they could definitely make this one a game.

SATURDAY
12:00:00 Army -10.5
12:00:00 Tulsa 10.5

12:00:00 Navy -8.5
12:00:00 Air Force 9
Can Army and Navy reach a combined 10-0?

12:00:00 Missouri 1.5
12:00:00 Texas A&M -1.5
Missouri has the lightest SEC sched, while ATM is somehow still ranked. Both teams can definitely survive 1 more loss but possibly (in Mizzou's case) or almost definitely (in ATM's case) not 2, so a ton of playoff equity on the line here

12:00:00 Massachusetts 17.5
12:00:00 Northern Illinois -17

12:00:00 Boston College 3.5
12:00:00 Virginia -3.5

12:00:00 SMU 7
12:00:00 Louisville -6.5
SMU certainly enjoyed beating the doors of FSU 42-16, and this might be the only game they're a dog the rest of the season. Louisville lost to ND in an incredibly chaotic, sloppy game. Both these teams are ACC dark horses, the winner will be a clear cut #3 behind Miami and Clemson. SMU plays neither, so they can afford the loss a lot less than Louisville, who plays both.

12:00:00 Pittsburgh -2.5
12:00:00 North Carolina 3
Pitt is 4-0, doesn't play Miami and gets Clemson at home.

12:00:00 Wake Forest 5.5
12:00:00 North Carolina State -5.5

12:00:00 Purdue 13.5
12:00:00 Wisconsin -12.5

12:00:00 UCLA 28.5
12:00:00 Penn State -28.5

13:00:00 Tulane -14.5
13:00:00 UAB 15

14:00:00 Western Michigan -9
14:00:00 Ball State 9.5

15:30:00 East Carolina -8.5
15:30:00 UNC Charlotte 9

15:30:00 Temple 14.5
15:30:00 UConn -14

15:30:00 Auburn 24.5
15:30:00 Georgia -23.5

15:30:00 Mississippi -9
15:30:00 South Carolina 9.5
A loss would be absolutely catastrophic for Ole Miss, and would turn the rest of their season into a must-win out scenario since they actually have a very light SEC slate. USCe on the other hand, has the kind of schedule that could playoff at 9-3, so they're extremely live if they win here.

15:30:00 Appalachian State 2.5
15:30:00 Marshall -1.5

15:30:00 Bowling Green -14.5
15:30:00 Akron 14.5

15:30:00 Miami (OH) 6.5
15:30:00 Toledo -6.5

15:30:00 Virginia Tech -9.5
15:30:00 Stanford 9.5

15:30:00 Indiana -13.5
15:30:00 Northwestern 14
Perhaps more surprising than Indiana being 5-0 is the fact that they actually are probably that good? Indiana o5.5 wins was my largest season total bet in the preseason, and they've exceeded my expectations. I currently have them rated 20th, and have them favored in every game (even Michigan at home) except for Ohio State. The Maryland game showed that these guys might be legit. They lost the turnover battle 4-0 and won by 14 anyway.

15:30:00 Iowa 20.5
15:30:00 Ohio State -20.5

16:00:00 West Virginia 4.5
16:00:00 Oklahoma State -3.5
Oklahoma State lost to both of the B12 favorites, so they've got to be perfect from here on out. WV had a rough OOC losing to Penn State and choking the game away against Pitt, but they're still sitting at 1-0 in B12 play with hopes and dreams

16:00:00 Rutgers 7
16:00:00 Nebraska -6.5
Rutgers is 4-0, although it's likely a mirage as they were lucky to win both of their games against actual football teams. Nebraska took a while but eventually fought through their Illinois hangover.

16:15:00 Alabama -23
16:15:00 Vanderbilt 23.5
There's no way Vanderbilt could... nah. Right?

18:30:00 Colorado State 14
18:30:00 Oregon State -13.5

19:00:00 Utah State 26.5
19:00:00 Boise State -26.5

19:00:00 Old Dominion 5
19:00:00 Coastal Carolina -4.5

19:00:00 South Alabama -2.5
19:00:00 Arkansas State 3.5

19:00:00 James Madison -16.5
19:00:00 Louisiana-Monroe 17

19:00:00 Louisiana-Lafayette -14.5
19:00:00 Southern Miss 15.5

19:00:00 Clemson -14.5
19:00:00 Florida State 15

19:30:00 Nevada 7.5
19:30:00 San Jose State -7

19:30:00 Tennessee -13.5
19:30:00 Arkansas 13.5

19:30:00 Baylor 14
19:30:00 Iowa State -12.5

19:30:00 Michigan 3
19:30:00 Washington -2.5
Michigan might be the worst top-10 rated team in week 6 ever. Here's hoping that their luck finally runs out and Washington gets a bit of justice back

19:30:00 USC -8.5
19:30:00 Minnesota 9.5
USC hasn't shown up until halftime of their last two games. They might be able to do that once more, but with Penn State on deck, now is the time to get their **** together

19:45:00 Central Florida 1
19:45:00 Florida 1.5
Absolutely huge game for both programs. UCF was super highly rated then got absolutely dump trucked by CU as a 14 point favorite. Florida has Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss coming up, lmfao.

20:00:00 Hawaii 3
20:00:00 San Diego State -2.5

20:00:00 Kansas 3.5
20:00:00 Arizona State -2.5

20:00:00 Duke 7.5
20:00:00 Georgia Tech -7.5
Duke is 5-0, but hasn't really played anyone yet. You may remember Maalik Murphy from Texas last year.

22:30:00 Miami -12.5
22:30:00 California 12.5
GAMEDAY is coming to Cal for the first time ever. Kicking the game away at FSU hurts a lot, but if Cal can somehow pull off the upset here, every game on the rest of the slate is winnable (although @ Pitt and @ SMU look a little tougher than they did a couple weeks ago)

23:00:00 Texas Tech 6
23:00:00 Arizona -5.5
Arizona should be back into the top-25 if they win here. Texas tech currently sits atop the Big-12 in a 3 way tie at 2-0 with BYU and Colorado. Just like everybody predicted.

The top-4 seeds are reserved for the highest ranked conference champions, and the top-5 rated conference champions are guaranteed bids

So I would think that in almost every year, the 5 seed will be much better than the 4 seed, and the 12 seed will often be much weaker than the 11 seed

So the 5 seed has to win 2 games in order to face the 1 seed, but they'll usually be huge favorites in those 2

Like this year we could get something like

1 Alabama

2 Ohio State

3 Miami

4 Iowa State

12 Boise

as the auto bids then

5 Texas
6 Tennessee
7 Oregon
8 Georgia
9 Penn State
10 Missouri
11 USC

which would then go to

1 Alabama
8 UGA / 9 Penn State

4 Iowa State
5 Texas / 12 Boise

2 Ohio State
7 Oregon / 10 Mizzou

3 Miami
6 Tennessee / 11 USC

Then, in this scenario, hopefully the committee fudges the rankings a bit and like flips Oregon and UGA so we don't face two potential rematches in the second round.

But, I anticipate a lot of them being like this where the 12 seed is by far the weakest team in the field and the 4 seed is weaker than the 5-9 seeds

And, I think often the 1 and 5 seed will be the winner of the SECCG and the loser of the SECCG

The biggest thing in the committee's hands will be how they trade off teams like 10-2 Mizzou or 10-2 Tennessee/Ole Miss that don't go to the SECCG and teams like Utah or K-Stat e who go 11-1 then lose in the B12CG to finish 11-2

And then most years there will be a decent but not great team that happens to draw an incredibly light schedule and run super hot and goes 11-1 with no marquee wins (think 11-1 Rutgers or an 11-1 Cal team that beat FSU but say loses to miami by 40) and lots of close calls

The 5th seed is the place to be, especially if you get to skip a CCG. You get a G5 at home then the worst conference champ. I don't mean to be a Connelly stan, but here's a map that nicely illustrates it according to SP+ (where #5 Bama essentially beams into the semis):

For 9-3 UGA it'll definitely come down to what the committee "wants" to do which they'll spit out with whatever gobble-dee-**** they come up with, but there'll probably be 3 SEC teams who've beaten them *and* have better or same records plus 1 or 2 they haven't played with better records (all of whom may have better power ratings by then). If not left out, they could easily wind up with an away game at a top-ten team which would put a hefty dent in even preseason-expectation Georgia. Committee, TV show, yadda yadda yadda, but they probably won't do the only logical thing of putting in 7 at-large SEC teams (and may even cap it at a ridiculous number like 4 or 5!), nor sanely seed the SEC for all the home games, so the optics of doing them the favor of a home game instead of "if they're so good let them win on the road" may not fly.

Indiana football has a better coach than Michigan football. Imagine being told this would be the case in a years time one year ago. You would have said not even possible.

I think we are probably headed for:
- 5 SEC teams (Bama, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss... then some chance Mizzou or LSU or somebody wins a bunch of games and knocks one of them out)

- 4 B1G teams (OSU, Oregon, Penn State, then I think USC has a great shot, they basically need to beat ND or Penn State. Small chance that somebody with a light schedule like Indiana slides in there at 11-1)

Then that only leaves room for ACC Champ, B12 Champ and MWC champ

I think the odds of two G5 teams are ~0 now, and I think (Vegas disagrees somewhat) that UNLV/Boise are so far ahead that one of them would have to probably go 10-3 to open the window for somebody else.

ACC's best path for 2 is obviously something like 12-0 Miami losing to 11-1 Clemson (or 11-1 Louisville or 11-1 SMU) in the ACCCG. I assume Miami probably bumps out one of the 10-2 SEC teams. If Clemson/Louisville/SMU loses in the ACCCG, they're really going to have to root for polarization in the SEC where a couple teams run the table and give everybody some extra losses and then the middle class rises up and creates a 9-3 logjam

B12 path for 2 is tough because the conference is so tough at the bottom and they play 9 conf games, it's hard to there to be two 11-1 teams emerge.

The most likely scenario is just Utah and K-State running the table, but I still have a feeling that the loser of the CG is going to finish in the low teens

Iowa State plays Utah, K-State and UCF, so it's tough to imagine them advancing alongside another team even though they have the quality OOC win at Iowa

Ok State already lost to both Utah and K-State, so it's tough for them to fight their way back

Teams like BYU and Colorado probably just aren't good enough to run the table with any sort of nonzero %

But yeah B12CG is probably a 10-2 team vs a 9-3 team that won some massive multiway tiebreak and the winner goes and everybody else is out

- surprised UK isn't in the top right

- IU built to stay?

- OU doesn't stand a chance making it to the playoffs it would seem

- Illinois "average"?

baby steps toward the super league

wouldn't touch the spread on the Oregon-MSU game
think UO will win but it won't be a blowout

Yea I don't trust Oregon enough to make that bet. Sadly, Washington is the lock this week.

I know I sound like a broken record, but I think Vegas is underestimating how likely the G5 champ is to be from the MWC

Washington State is likely to finish 10-2 (with some probability on 11-1 and 9-3), ranked and with P4 wins over Washington and Texas Tech

Oregon State is likely to finish 7-5 with 1 P4 win (over purdue)

Fresno State is looking like 7-5 with a good chance of a P4 win (over UCLA)

and then Boise and UNLV will likely both end ranked and the winner will have beaten the other at least once (if not twice)

So it's either going to be Boise with 2-3 top-25 wins (Wazzu, UNLV, possibly UNLV again) or UNLV with 1-2 top-25 wins (Boise, possibly Boise again) in addition to 2-3 P4 wins.

Even if the winner finishes 11-2 (say Boise loses to UNLV in the regular season then beats them in the title, or UNLV loses @ Oregon State and to Boise in the regular then beats Boise, I think they are likely to be head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the field

AAC has almost no P4 wins, Memphis already lost once and is likely to lose again, and their win over FSU, FSU might go like 3-8. Navy and Army probably aren't good enough to finish 10-1, although Navy does get ND at home which could swing it.

Only MAC team that has a shot is Toledo and I think they're behind even if they run the table

Liberty is probably gonna go undefeated, but their only top-100 game got rained out, it's worse than most FCS schedules. Plus they got their chance last year with a much better team and got obliterated

James Madison is live, and maybe they get it at 13-0, but again their schedule is just so much weaker. 1 loss boise/unlv > 13-0 JMU. Maybe JMU goes over 2 loss, but I don't even know. Committee is gonna care about quality wins, and UNLV/Boise have so many more it's not even close.

Ah SJSU is also live

they still play @ Fresno, @ Oregon State, v Boise, v UNLV and v Stanford

so if they beat either UNLV or Boise and finish with 1 MWC loss, they wiggle into the title game

just paid a bunch of money to switch a vacation from next weekend to this weekend

next weekend:

3 Ohio State @ 6 Oregon
7 Penn State @ 11 USC
2 Texas n 19 Oklahoma
12 Ole Miss @ 13 LSU
16 ISU @ WVU
20 K State @ 4-1 Colorado
18 Utah @ 3-1 ASU
Cal @ 4-0 Pitt
3-1 Arizona @ 5-0 BYU

yeah, not gonna want to miss that one

curious who your picking in their H2H?

Jeanty's 13 rushing tds this season would be tied for eighth on the passing list, and he's played one less game than all but two above him. still only three away from second place.

10.3 yds/rush would be third on the ypa list

I didn't realize that Army and Navy are both already 3-0 in the AAC. They end the season with each other (which is a noncon game) and both play ND and AFA mid season so they had to get started early.

Army avoids both Memphis and Tulane, while Navy already beat Memphis and gets Tulane at home.

I don't understand how Memphis is still +380 to win the conference. They have to win out, winning at Tulane, and then ALSO hope that Navy loses a game and/or they win a 3 way tie with Navy and Tulane. Any loss pretty much ****s them.

Holy hell. Send any two of those games into this weekend and I would be happy. Brutal weekend for UK to be off and looking for a good Saturday slate. But...sometimes that causes chaos???

Gonna get double A/N this year…I can feel it.

If anybody wants to bet ND to the playoffs, I will give you +130 (currently -120 on caesars, +100 on FD, +100 on BOL and +115 on Draftkings)

Really interested to see how the committee treats Ole Miss. If they lose to UGA, they'll finish 10-2 with the following slate of wins:

v Furman
v Middle Tennessee State
v Georgia Southern
v Mississippi State
@ Wake Forest
@ Florida
@ Arkansas
v Oklahoma
@ South Carolina
@ LSU

Is that gonna be playoff worthy? I have LSU and OU both finishing around 7-5, so a decent chance that they end up with 0 top-25 wins