2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Lol. This whole thing started when I said Democrats should nominate charismatic public speakers like Obama and Clinton.
And I said Clinton didn't do any better than recent Dem nominees. Maybe your subject charisma metric is meaningless to actually getting votes? We'd all like to run against an incumbent during a recession or as an incumbent during a boom, but Clinton couldn't even beat George W's best with those fundamentals.
And I said Clinton didn't do any better than recent Dem nominees. Maybe your subject charisma metric is meaningless to actually getting votes? We'd all like to run against an incumbent during a recession or as an incumbent during a boom, but Clinton couldn't even beat George W's best with those fundamentals.
Right and you are wrong because three later nominees lost their elections. The only one you could argue did as well was Obama, another great speaker.
Then you had Biden who had such a poor public speaking performance that he had to drop out of the reelection race.
I am not sure why you are dying on this hill that public speaking ability is unimportant for a candidate but here we are.
It's not unprecedented. We had one guy before who courted the Nazi vote by calling them "very fine people" on national television. Didn't even need the teleprompter.
A total lie
A total lie
That's wassup!!
Homeboy is a useful idiot who will spread every lie they present him.
Don't tell him that there is no santa clause either. Lol
Lol
Hey there is an on going war right across the border which is taking many lives every day,
Took already millions of lives and nobody is talking about it, because officially there is no war! Lol
Soldiers are fighting this war get ptsd like Iraq and nam soldiers but nobody is talking about it, they dont get medals like they should bc This war does not exist, officially!
,
Step across the border you will die, everyone will. Or go missing like millions are already at this moment.
But but... Ukraine LMAO
Trump is gonna fix Mexico. And the fent problem that us people are dying of left and right.
Right and you are wrong because three later nominees lost their elections. The only one you could argue did as well was Obama, another great speaker.
Then you had Biden who had such a poor public speaking performance that he had to drop out of the reelection race.
I am not sure why you are dying on this hill that public speaking ability is unimportant for a candidate but here we are.
You're dying on a hill of not reading what I'm saying. Clinton, a great speaker didn't do much better in or actually did worse than HC, Gore, Biden and candidates you consider terrible in popular vote. I'm saying that your subject criteria doesn't match well with the data. When that happens to normal thinking people, they go back and look over the subjective criteria. Obviously you're probably not capable of that which is fine, but doesn't mean what you're saying makes sense as a way to look at elections.
The Unite the Right rally was organized and run by a White Supremacist. Trump explicitly excluded white supremacists and racists when he said both sides had fine people. But who shows up to a rally run by white supremacist who is not a white supremacist and not a counter-protestor?
Another truueman...
And Trump had no problem calling BLM protestors all terrorists. He's not precise in communication in general so it's a bit rich to claim a technicality when he needs one, but ignore all the other broad brush statements he routinely makes.
The modding is fine but I’ve never observed a mod to admit to an unfair or arbitrary ban. I mean you still have Victor and Luciom back after their respective bans spewing hateful and incendiary trash. But Mets hasn’t been allowed back because a mod has some long standing and unrelated beef against him. That is clearly a biased situation but no one is going to acknowledge it.
I was banned for insulting 2+2 an the mod admitted he was in a bad mood and couldn't undo it since it was a nuke. I'm sure it's happened other times.
You're dying on a hill of not reading what I'm saying. Clinton, a great speaker didn't do much better in or actually did worse than HC, Gore, Biden and candidates you consider terrible in popular vote. I'm saying that your subject criteria doesn't match well with the data. When that happens to normal thinking people, they go back and look over the subjective criteria. Obviously you're probably not capable of that which is fine, but doesn't mean what you're saying makes sense as a way to look
I literally went and gave you all the data and you are still tripling down on this. His popular vote margin was greater than HC, Gore, and Biden. You can’t seem to understand the concept of a 3 way race and why winning 43-37-18% is more impressive than a 51-49%. You just look and say 51 bigger than 43 hurr durr.
If you wanted to argue that Bill Clinton won because of other reasons fine, whatever. Maybe voters really liked his tarrif policy compared to gore and it had nothing to do with Gore having an awkward wooden personality.
But to argue that the 2 time winner actually didn’t do better than the losers because he was in a 3 way race is just bizarre.
I literally went and gave you all the data and you are still tripling down on this. His popular vote margin was greater than HC, Gore, and Biden. You can’t seem to understand the concept of a 3 way race and why winning 43-37-18% is more impressive than a 51-49%. You just look and say 51 bigger than 43 hurr durr.
If you wanted to argue that Bill Clinton won because of other reasons fine, whatever. Maybe voters really liked his tarrif policy compared to gore and it had nothing to do with Gore
I'm saying you can't say he did much better because he did not get a much higher percentage of the vote. You don't seem to be able to understand that. Which is fine, but not my problem. The point is basic and obvious, but not to everyone of course.
Quick aside: if all you knew were the numbers, it would be impossible to say which victory was more impressive.
You can actually build a model that completely ignores the candidate and candidate specific polling all together (only look at generic ballot data before candidates are selected,economic data leading up to the election. incumbent advantage etc) and the model will do fine from the 90s on. Bill Clinton would under perform by a decent amount on this though. But apples to apples is a little tough becaise cross ballot voting was way more common then. The case for this candidate being great and this candidate being bad is actually really hard to make data wise, though some people will pretend like it isn't. Basically clutch in sports.
The Unite the Right rally was organized and run by a White Supremacist. Trump explicitly excluded white supremacists and racists when he said both sides had fine people. But who shows up to a rally run by white supremacist who is not a white supremacist and not a counter-protestor?
in fairness, it was a 2 day rally that was heavily portrayed in the news
at the end of the day it wasn't about white surpremacy, it was about honoring robert e lee's statue
there could have easily been a lot of people there who were not white supremacists who arrived and were sympathetic to those protesting the removal
ie just as a lover of history and nothing else, it saddened me that we have dismantled so many confederate statues - tearing them down doesn't change what happened in the slightest and robert e lee of all people is perhaps the most sympathetic confederate that ever lived
we're talking the best general america ever had, someone who faithfully served the united states for years, initially rejected and rebuked the confederacy, and only reluctantly joined when his state (which back then was more important than anything else had joined
Mr. Blair, I look upon secession as anarchy. If I owned the four millions of slaves in the South I would sacrifice them all to the Union; but how can I draw my sword upon Virginia, my native state?
it's important to judge people under the time and circumstances in which they lived
I have a thought experiment for people.
Imagine if candidate Kamala Harris introduced a 100k watch with which 147 will be produced. Would anyone, including Democratic party loyalists, let this go without criticism?
Why is a candidate for president releasing a watch that could net him millions of dollars personally?
Is there not a danger that someone could buy these watches, even foreign entities, and Trump would consider that a de facto political controbution?
I have a thought experiment for people.
Imagine if candidate Kamala Harris introduced a 100k watch with which 147 will be produced. Would anyone, including Democratic party loyalists, let this go without criticism?
Why is a candidate for president releasing a watch that could net him millions of dollars personally?
Is there not a danger that someone could buy these watches, even foreign entities, and Trump would conside
i think what you did as a job before entering politics matters to a degree to judge these things.
ofc for people like Kamala or Biden the answer is "absolutely nothing, they always lived off politics" so ye starting to cash in like that would look bad.
for someone who spent his entire life putting his name on stuff and profiting from it even well before he entered politics well, can't blame him too much if he keeps doing that can you?
i think what you did as a job before entering politics matters to a degree to judge these things.
ofc for people like Kamala or Biden the answer is "absolutely nothing, they always lived off politics" so ye starting to cash in like that would look bad.
for someone who spent his entire life putting his name on stuff and profiting from it even well before he entered politics well, can't blame him too much if he keeps doing that can you?
lol...
yeah ethics in politics is such a useless traits.
once a grifter always a grifter ?
even more reason to not have trump as a president.
hey pelosi became millionaires through stocks purchase through insider info right ?
isnt the narrative from the republicans ?
So if she did it all her career to become a millionaire, why are they complaining about it too then still today right ?
once an insider traders always an insider trader ? shrug
no big deal.....
Fwiw I’m presuming no one here would easily put their money in the hands of a convicted fraudster and a known grifter swindling everything he can to anyone .
But hey to run a country it’s all good….
Ps: I would bet that not a single 500 fortune companies would hire trump has their CEO ….(beside his own company obv).
ie just as a lover of history and nothing else, it saddened me that we have dismantled so many confederate statues - tearing them down doesn't change what happened in the slightest and robert e lee of all people is perhaps the most sympathetic confederate that ever lived
we're talking the best general america ever had, someone who faithfully served the united states for years, initially rejected and rebuked the confederacy, and only reluctantly joined when his state (which back then was more impo
Fair enough but black people have an entirely different perspective on those statutes than you likely do. How would you feel about people celebrating figures who killed Americans for the right to keep your ancestors enslaved?
