2024 ELECTION THREAD

You better get off the keyboard and hit the streets if you want The Turd to win re-election. Chances aren't looking good rn

As usual no idea what you talking about .

lol same, trying to figure out which banned person this guy is

Turdeau of course. Come on guys, it's not that hard.

Well must be lozen alt account then ?

If he wants to post about Canada there is a thread for it .
And I’m on record Trudeau should leave, for over a year .
So no idea why he would say -> my guy being re-elected ….

lmao I thought I was going crazy thinking this guy is weird but this is my sanity check o7

Trump was +110 this past week and he's now -120. That is a pretty drastic turn. Do we think this is because kamala has done a couple interviews, is not solely relying on a teleprompter and people are getting to know her? Or has there been some other change that I'm not aware?

Elon moving the lines for lulz

This claim by Elon is wrong. About 3% of sports bettors are profitable. Most people who make bets have no clue what they are doing

You could bet on Trump to win/lose in 2020 after Trump had already lost (just a hint at the sophistication level of those betting on Trump)

Hope that helps

LMAO delusional

I love the idea that donkeys betting is more accurate than polls.

these markets are generally driven by whales, who are usually profitable bettors

i have low 5 figures tied up in the election - i drive the market more than 1000 rando losing bettors who each put $20 on it, and i in turn move it far less than someone like domer who has 7 figures tied up in the markets

but yes, elon alone could manipulate those markets if he wanted to, so long as he put enough buy pressure on it, someone like him could move trump very high before it reached an equilibrium point where enough money started coming in on kamala to counteract it

its wildly unpopular and alienating a non-negligible number Dem voters.

as if on cue lol

There are barely any people outside of the far left of the party that pay attention to what’s going on in the war. I’m sure you could find some trends against Israel and the war, but these beliefs are not going to be very high confidence.

It’s just like how lefties think M4A is super popular because it polls well. That doesn’t mean that it’s going to actually effect the elections.

also not to make this the israel palestine thread but it’s not a genocide either

only reason predictit lags behind is the 850 limit per user per market prevents whales from smashing the market - i mean some jagoff actually booked my months old offer on biden next pres yesterday

To go vote trump (or not go voting ending up the same result) and exacerbate the genocide ?
Nah ….

26 more days of "what is the next crazy thing we can push..." left!

get them in while you can....

it doesnt take much to swing an election and Michigan in particular is important.

as an aside, this is an amazing sentence.

lol

I don’t think you understand how polling works. If I ask someone “do you support medicare for all?” and they know nothing about the policy, they might just answer yes because they recognize the word “medicare”.

Getting 60% of people to affirm a position they know nothing about and won’t be placing any importance on when they go to the polls tells you nothing about how many people actually support that.

I dont think you understand how words work.