My results of grinding 2NL 5NL 10NL 25NL 50NL 100NL

you should really be more open to change ur perceptions so many people have said u cant work on things like this u do thing X and check from results if it caused thing Y - its not how it works

ur winrate is a sum of millions of things , if u were to just accept that learning an ABC gameplan which u are lacking would increase ur odds to be a long-term winner a lot before anything else it would really be amazing , like u keep disagreeing of the donk-betting even 3 or 4 people telling you its just terrible

your game is like u had just read the book "art of war" and then started playing poker with its wisdoms without like any technical work - "when in doubt just donk bet to show down ur hand and confuse ur enemy" this is how china fish play and its at best just bit annoying but at the end just silly and rains to the other players pocket in long run

like if u have a mid-pair in 3b pot and they bet big turn you just fold it.

Except it doesnt. Pot turn followed by overbet river from regs is quite rare. U can just check ur own tracker/db and confirm this.

Art of war, sun tzu style, confuse the enemy, i need tom dwan avatar next 😃

It's better to get paid like 80BB in SRP more consistently than to get greedy and shove river right?

I know people have been harsh on you for the weird donk bets, so it's my turn...

With most respect to your volume, creativity, dedication and something I wish I was better at, defending my opinion.

I'm going to jump on, no donks for you train, not because I think its a bad strategy on some flops/turns/rivers... But logic behind your donks it is very flawed and tbh you achieve the opposite of what you wished for.

If I sawed one showdown where you donked on board that does not shift EQ favorites. I would make juicy note and would start raising you with any gutshot and better draws and follow up ORT. Also would wider my value range.

So to sum up these kinda donks is not putting anyone besides yourself in tough spots if your opponent is somewhat capable of adjusting.

I know this strategy is flawed, lately i was thinking the same, maybe i should go for more balanced strategy because good players will always exploit my flaws, any strategy thats not balanced will be a target

It was like a puzzle in my head, unbalanced lines had so much benefits, i could do something against the pool that was so easily exploitable it would boost my winrate drastically but as soon as pool started to exploit that, then my winrate would drop drastically

I wanted to just spam unbalanced lines that would print money but actually it wasn’t working because pool is not soulless dead object, its like live creature, constantly adapting and changing, players in the pool just won’t let you to take their money just like that

My puzzle was missing one element, its not whole pool who is exploiting me and adapting to my flawed strategy, maybe they’re like around 10% of players?

So if they make notes on me and start exploiting i need to exploit their exploits, otherwise my strategy would be destined to failure, if i add this one element to my strategy then puzzle is solved, i can run flawed lines against the pool but make notes on players who are exploiting my lines and change lines against them

So if i saw one showdown where you raise with a gutshot, next line you will face won’t be the same, next line will be totally different

Now I'm introducing another weird line, Blazar's IP min. raise special

Why the hell would i min. raise turn with 99 on a two overcard board? am i crazy?

Reasonings:

1. I don't want to call and let him keep the initiative to bluff bet on the river
2. I don't want to fold, i just want to see showdown
3. I want to charge him little extra if he's on a draw

Do it, just create those line with better logic. As delay cbet, probe...

your ability to not win the maximum in every pot

it’s going to wreck you as you move up

Our majority of winnings come from AA-KK and nutted hands anyway, if we check the stats, maybe they’re like 70%+ part of our total winnings?

I can categorize hand strengths by following:

#1 AA-KK and nutted hands
#2 Top pairs etc
#3 Mid pairs and lower

If i maximize profits from first category, if i 2 street value with second category instead of 3 and if i just try to see more cheap showdowns with the third category what do you think will it wreck me? Maybe to sacrifice last 2 category in exchange of less variance is the better way to move up?

Well actually i have bigger list of categories it includes air hands, draws etc but i shortened for you to explain my reasonings

Also i want to mention why zoom format is bad: KK-AA is wasted most of the times, either everyone folds pre or they don’t give you enough action postflop and to win pots with air hands becomes very crucial for redline otherwise it’s so hard to show positive winrate

Some revolutionary strategies in here. Learning a lot. My favorite is raising turns with 3rd pair.

Irony aside you haven't seen me raising turns with K high yet and donk jamming turns with fourth pair 😃

The second hand i don't like much tbh even tho i have nut advantage and UTG raiser can call my jam only with pair of 66s, there is no other hand in his range that he can call with imo

He disrespected my ranges and i put him in a position to force him fold his set, overpair or whatever he was holding

Even tho this play works, it produces high variance... and i should eliminate those kind of jams because im aiming to have less variance dense lines in general

The khi i actually like it but u should have bet the river.

To further explain K high raise won’t be easy but ill try:

There are some nitty guys in zoom pool who would snap fold weak top pairs to a raise, they really exist but my intention here isn’t to make villain fold his top pair

I’m targeting second pairs or pocket pairs like 99 88 77 55 44 33 etc some airs too and draws but time to time some nitties can fold weak top pairs too

Not betting the river is about intuition in combination of willing to go for less variance lines and not holding a club in my hand to block his flush possibilities

forget about more variance less variance if you can crush with plays that cause huge overfold it causes you less variance because ur winrate skyrockets if those plays suck then you will get crushed but thats with exploit either you win or you lose but to avoiding making them because of variance is idiotism and builds up just really bad habit of skipping bluffs u think would be +ev because sometimes you get called.

trying to break down his range on turn stab : Ax hands (a lot) , air , low pairs (hard to tell how many of those didn't cbet) first notice is that he has zero two pairs in his range by very high likelihood because when in the spot he likely just puts the a6/a2 he still can have to a bigger size so if pay attention to his range its a range which can not really call you down on any rivers if you bomb them.

I will to explain what i mean by more variance or less variance and why i try to avoid it

Lately I'm thinking that intuition is very powerful weapon in poker, intuition comes from experience, by playing millions of hands brain itself recognizes patterns and previously experienced troubles, we may don't even realize but it's some phenomenon thats hard to explain

I will tell you about why i mentioned intuition a bit later now lets get back to that KH hand, should i've bombed the river? if yes with what sizing? 75% enough? or maybe overbet like 125-150% something?

That river bombings to be successful we need certain % of folds from villain, lets say if we bet 75% pot, we need villain to fold like 42% of time to breakeven? (i haven't done math but probably will be like that)

But i don't want to make breakeven plays because it comes with variance it may turn into consecutive losing plays in a row, i want to make sure if i bet villain folds at least 60%+ times

Here my intuition tells me that "don't bet" "he has a flush" but intuition is not enough, we need to add some logic in the mixture to get an accurate result, my hand has no clubs, i don't have blockers, also i get called by A pair in fair amount of times, mixing all these things in my head says that this play will be close to breakeven or maybe worse so i don't bet

NL10 intuition. Best of the best.

in that specific spot what makes is problematic is ur xR value range becomes total second nut type stuff on that river however both players have very flushes and as mentioned his range is by high likelihood towards weak tps 90% OTR ,,, people who play everything fast give always something away in this case it probably was that he contemplated betting turn for a while then you raised then he snaps off the raise when with the ace he would think a while more and if ur consistently correct with this type of pattern recognition based hand reading its good thing and i would neither go against my gut bluffing spots like a bot if i think its not making sense there but u must be careful to not make those decisions as emotional responses to fear of losing a pot when u bluff

and ur thinking of variance is flawed and takes u to bad direction

You can play nosebleeds tomorrow but it won't give you intuition, no offense, i said it just as an example

Intuition forms from volume of hands you played in your lifetime, brain doesn't recognizes you played nl10 or nosebleeds, it recognizes patterns etc

I agree timing tells are big especially in lower limits

It’s not only variance but in combination variance along with how much money we put in the pot

If we play for 20BB its ok but if we play for 100BB+ here when it hurts the most, thats why going allin pre with AK is so painful when we face consecutive bad runouts, equity close to 50% + sometimes chance to run into nutty hands

Same goes when we face river shoves, what do you think villain bluff shoves more than 50% of times? It’s highly likely he has a hand that beats us but we still call and when we lose we regret it, when we win we’re happy but in the end variance kills us

Spot itself to be in isn’t profitable, why micros so easy to play? Because we get into such spots rarely

was about to come to point of saying an extend you can tell that there might be bit more flush in range than usual but it is not anything else than secondary info.
i wouldnt raise the k8s unless i think i will just run over him in rivers because to me it seems what really makes it +ev if ever bcz otherwise it seems like just -ev xR vs range that picks ton of top pair on turn...

i will keep reading but not post anymore bcz its not worth it , you refuse to understand that variance is not something you wanna control with the playing style but with the stakes you play

whatever the stake you play you should aim at winning the max and not play style of "trying to control the variance"

It’s ok, as you like but I really appreciate your posts bro, today i may refuse to understand something but tomorrow i may accept it, just takes little practice and understanding.

4bet pot vs a light 3bettor and i played it postflop like AA on safe board, betting small, again i tried to avoid variance by not shoving the river, should i have shoved?

unfortunately all the people who aren’t scared of variance are going to pull your pants down every time the pot gets big enough.

what happens when you have to make close calls but the variance of being wrong lots affects your decision?

what if you face a 20% river probe, you only have to win 14% of the time, but will losing 60+% of the time stop you from making the right call?

variance or other reasons, scared money doesn’t win in the long run - they’ve said this since the 90s. and right now my friend, you are scared money.

advice is similar to most threads on this site: drop stakes and pick up a solver

Better pick up easy money like this 😃