2024 ELECTION THREAD

This is key. Where the candidates are spending their time gives us insight on what they really think is happening.

Sure. But it doesn't mean that what they think is happening is what is actually happening. I mean, I can tell you what Playbig really thinks is happening, doesn't make it true.

The Republican polls pushing models to Trump narrative is vastly overstated. NYTimes eesults barely changes when they only used their high quality pollsters, none of which are republican.

I'm never sure why people think the campaigns have secret, accurate insider polls that tell them what the race really looks like.

How is Trump going to Rogan a good idea for him? They're Trump voters anyways and I don't see how Trump wouldn't end up looking ridiculous in that format, though I'm sure Rogan won't make it hard for him. Trump's usual format is someone asks a question, he select one (or often few) unrelated rants that he answers with, then the idiots clap, and after few questions it's over. How's that gonna work in the long format, he has to repeat the same rants ten times?

I don't think anyone here is claiming Trump is over 50% chance of winning the popular vote.

What you might not agree with though is that in most of the scenarios where Harris wins the pop vote by 1.5-2%, Trump wins the EC. Clinton lost while winning the pop vote by 2.1%.

The EC "buffer" is approx 3%. A national Harris+2 poll is a bad poll for her

RIP Blowie. If only he didn’t hold his breath because he didn’t believe checkraisdraw.

While I have done zero research on this, it really would not surprise me if there were scam sites out there purporting to sell secret documents supporting the conspiracy du jour, and the likes of Playbig getting taken in by them. It really wouldn't surprise me at all if he was in possession of some "affidavit from McDonalds CEO.pdf" that he paid 50 bucks for and thinks is top secret.

In fact, typing all that just gave me a business idea. Brb, gonna check out the availability of some domain names.

You are playing this game on only one side. Sure, if abortion rights or preserving democratic norms is a key issue for you, then you probably aren't undecided.

But if you think the 2020 election was rigged, or you are super frothy about protecting gun rights or restricting access to gender affirming health care, you probably aren't undecided either.

It's what people on both sides want to believe, but yeah, it isn't really true.

The election can be won by getting the few undecided on your side, or by getting low propensity to vote people on your side to vote

It tells you something, but it isn't always clear what exactly. For example, if Trump focused most of his time in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina during the week before the election, that might mean that he thinks Pennsylvania is in the bag and he is angling for a decisive win. On the other hand, it might mean that he thinks Pennsylvania is a lost cause and he is flailing around in search of a different coalition of states that conceivably could add up to 270.

I could make similar arguments about Kamala spending time in various states.

In theory, yes, although in recent decades, it has been much more the latter than the former.

I agree that 1a-2a enthusiasts, culture war rightwing people and so on, being already politically motivated, won't be undecided either.

But low info/propensity undecided tend to care about the economy/inflation imho, and most polls indicate that for whatever reason, indipendents believe Trump to be better about that than Harris

Harris could be interested in Texas for the senate btw

BREAKING NEWS: Maricopa County, Arizona is now stating it could take 10 to 13 days to complete the vote count for the election.

Editorial comment: Translation they will print/do whatever it takes.

I don't think we need to believe election rigging takes place to believe that taking a week or more to count votes is a terrible choice.

BC election up in Canada is taking a week to count right now.

You have recounts as some of the ridings are within a 100 votes and are automatic . You have a conservative party that was at 2% favorability and never won an election in 100 years now leading in 45 ridings and the NDP at 47 with the Green Party at 2

It was my first time voting in this province and I had to show my voter registration and ID 3 times . ID how racist 😀

Are you denying that campaigns have internal polls? And that they try to be as accurate as possible? They might be right, or they might be off. But they are certainly better than most polling.

We know how accurate the 2022 midterm polls were

BREAKING NEWS: Playbig wakes up in the middle of the night petrified of election fraud monsters under his bed.

Yes. Internal polling was far more accurate than what was fed to the public. And the conservative polling blitz is much harder this time.

It very rarely takes a full day in Italy, most often you simply wake up with the results being available the day after the election.

All counted by hand, at night.

If we can do that every one can, we are famous for low government efficiency especially in some areas.