N1H- The Return(Minus Butthole Pleasures)
Hey,
Got my computer back set up and wanting to log for a while now.
Anyways, not logging has made me v lazy and unorganized. My diet is also trash and I look like I don't even lift no more.
I'm also selling most of my sneakers to start a poker bankroll. I haven't played in over 3 years, but looks like nothing has changed, lol. They also open up a poker room nearby and I'm sure the players still suck.
My childhood buddy keeps inviting me to his lame home games. I keep making excuse not to go. By the looks of it, its some bs $20 game, that lasts 6+ hours lolol.
Anal girl is with some 10'' arm loser. They honestly look like brother and sister, it's disgusting lol.
Currently squat and DL only. I tore something in my shoulder and haven't bench since April 10.
My PRs:
Bench: 265
Squat: 390
DL: 490
I tore my shoulder the week of maxing out. Would have attempted something like:
Bench: 275
Squat: 405
DL: 505
Currently doing whatever. Need shoulder to heal but been very slow.
See you soon. Brewing that coffee soon.
I grunch everything related to gambling and shoes. I'm here for the workouts only, baby.
[QUOTE=NotThremp;58760830MLB TTs were an area where people were using kinda meh approximations that worked great for the time (Poisson), but I basically ended that game when I sat down and did an actual Monte Carlo sim. (A non-Markov chain approach because that is ****ing dumb since it literally is path dependent.)
.[/QUOTE]
I'd really like to see Thremp fly to Chicago and sit down with N1H and try to explain what a Poisson distribution, a Monte Carlo Simulation, Markov Chains, and path dependency are. That'd be on the level of season 1 True Detective episode 3.
I only write this stuff because I hate myself. I know it is completely useless for Hero, but I convince myself that one of the other people that are actively betting will read this and be like "Hrm. This is hard. Maybe I should try to do actual work." I guess I could throw in some FPS jargon like neck bearding about stochastic and non-stochastic elements (ironically some that are seemingly random, like injuries, can be predicted to a degree). But I'm trying to dumb this down to literally terminology that has wikipedia articles and entire college lectures:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_di...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carl...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_cha...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonholonom...
https://www.coursera.org/specializations...
https://www.coursera.org/learn/mcmc-baye...
Granted we could move up the spergy ladder into recommending a free version of this: https://online.stanford.edu/courses/stat... or we can take a quick peak at the MIT lecture on this subject: https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/18-s096-topi... where the optional stopping algorithm helps us simulate scenarios where betting half kelly with a defined edge (if you actually do the work, you'd also learn that a basket of bets normally distributed around a mean returns the mean, so variance is immaterial) would allow us to reach a certain # that allows us to do something else (retire and buy a Bux). These all seem kind of asinine on their face, but at some point they do serve a purpose beyond just building a general understanding of statistics and the associated feel good when you stand in line at Starbucks waiting for a latte thinking "I bet none of these other yuppies have even tried to solve an optimal staking strategy for March Madness".
Sadly I can't say I've been in a US chain coffee shop in probably half a decade. Think I got an iced latte in a blue bottle in SF like 5-6 years ago. Tasted fine.
hahaha... I can tell you're new here to the N1H log. Welcome!
I guess I'm technically considered a NEET/unemployed since I do not draw a pension and am below retirement age. So jokes on the other yuppie scum. Also might not qualify for young anymore. Need some guidance on what exactly constitutes "young".
Well that assumes yuppie actually means yuppie and isn't used as a generic insult against anyone with a white collar job. Kinda like calling Elon an incel. Not sure you can call anyone an incel who is a more prolific breeder than Tyreek Hill.
Typical clueless yuppie, doesn't even know what a yuppie is lol.
A yuppie is anyone who has more money than N1H. Duh.
I guess I'm technically considered a NEET/unemployed since I do not draw a pension and am below retirement age. So jokes on the other yuppie scum. Also might not qualify for young anymore. Need some guidance on what exactly constitutes "young".
Well that assumes yuppie actually means yuppie and isn't used as a generic insult against anyone with a white collar job. Kinda like calling Elon an incel. Not sure you can call anyone an incel who is a more prolific breeder than Tyreek Hill.
IIRC, NEET has an upper limit for age and it's not really that old (i.e. below when most people retire). If you're in your 40s, I think you may not qualify. Same for unemployed. I think most would say you would have to be seeking employment and not have it to count for that. We might just have to settle for "retired", but not of trad retirement age.
IIRC, NEET has an upper limit for age and it's not really that old (i.e. below when most people retire). If you're in your 40s, I think you may not qualify. Same for unemployed. I think most would say you would have to be seeking employment and not have it to count for that. We might just have to settle for "retired", but not of trad retirement age.
So most places focus on NEETs within the youth segment. However, Japan/Korea are increasingly facing issues with adult NEETs (30+) who are basically doing the same thing they did when they were 12 in 1990 except now they're almost 50. I read a few case studies which are pretty wild. The psychological burden for the parents is basically the same as when faced with an adult child who is incapable of caring for themselves and will likely need to be institutionalized, except there is no institution that takes care of losers.
It is genuinely a wild subject.
I only write this stuff because I hate myself. I know it is completely useless for Hero, but I convince myself that one of the other people that are actively betting will read this and be like "Hrm. This is hard. Maybe I should try to do actual work." I guess I could throw in some FPS jargon like neck bearding about stochastic and non-stochastic elements (ironically some that are seemingly random, like injuries, can be predicted to a degree). But I'm trying to dumb this down to literally termino
Got a free jersey for deposit on fanatics.
JJ home purple, Henry black alternate, or Lamar black alternate?
Got a free jersey for deposit on fanatics.
JJ home purple, Henry black alternate, or Lamar black alternate?
Aren't you going to address Thremp's carefully written posts!? He clearly spent a lot of time crafting them in order to help inform you on your future sportsbetting career!
Spoiler
Asking questions when you already know the answer
Too many big words
I’m gonna take that as disrespect
[emoji851]
ABP LOVE PARLAY
Man who knows what coulda happened if that face mask was called. Bet you anything I win here.
Addison was due.
Where can I go for winning play tips?
Am I still betting like a rtard?
My buddy flexing on me posting his -7.5 rams spread and betting the over. Live bet. He also bots sneakers and is one of those dudes who is good at this crap but fat and ugly. Cant have both.
N1,
You can't even tell the expected value of your bet either via your own analysis or the market. I mean this in the nicest possible way, but given your limited ability to read and the fact almost all sports betting discussion of meaningful value takes place in a written form (atleast initially), you will never be anything more than a losing bettor unless you commit yourself to doing some reading that may be time consuming and slightly unpleasant.
I'm happy to hand hold you through the process. For a start instead of posting and asking whether your bet is good or bad, why don't you attempt to quantify the EV of your bet?
This should help you along that journey: https://help.smarkets.com/hc/en-gb/artic...
And if you refuse to read, maybe you can find the appropriate video in here: https://www.youtube.com/@pinnaclesports/...
Also, intelligence is slightly positively correlated with physical attractiveness. And despite the overwhelming amount of Asians and Jews in gambling, I'd say on average most people I ended up working with were above average in the looks department. If we listen to Emoken that we attract women based on looks and not our scintillating personalities and fat wallets, then most of the dudes I worked with are very good looking. So I wouldn't let your stunning good looks hold you back.
Ty my man!!
Also have I posted here I am now a cyclist?
I urban ride in the city. Fixie, no brakes.
Averaging 15-20 miles a day.
Maybe I’ll get lean.
What's the o/u on how much N1H loses before he quits or realizes he needs to put some effort in?
Grunch
LFG
Got my $500 bonus bets
What should I bet on?
The jersey promo was over…
So most places focus on NEETs within the youth segment. However, Japan/Korea are increasingly facing issues with adult NEETs (30+) who are basically doing the same thing they did when they were 12 in 1990 except now they're almost 50. I read a few case studies which are pretty wild. The psychological burden for the parents is basically the same as when faced with an adult child who is incapable of caring for themselves and will likely need to be institutionalized, except there is no institution
I kind of want to read some of these case studies. I don't suppose you have a link to some.
Also, intelligence is slightly positively correlated with physical attractiveness. And despite the overwhelming amount of Asians and Jews in gambling, I'd say on average most people I ended up working with were above average in the looks department. If we listen to Emoken that we attract women based on looks and not our scintillating personalities and fat wallets, then most of the dudes I worked with are very good looking. So I wouldn't let your stunning good looks hold you back.
This is the truth and the real black pill. It's a correlation and clearly there are exceptions, but the entire reason the halo effect evolved is because beautiful people actually are more intelligent and competent on average. Humans are not point buy DnD characters where people with higher intelligence have less points to allocate to looks.
sounds kinda Hitlerian when I write it out, but some truths of humanity are Hitlerian. The truth of a statement isn't dependent on the messenger.
It's incredibly hard not to notice this as a teacher when I had fairly large class sizes the previous 9 years (not anymore). The correlation seems weaker among male students than female students, but I suspect this is mostly cultural because mainland Chinese boys are not exactly top looksmaxxers. I imagine if I were in Taiwan or Korea that discrepancy would disappear.
I notice it even more among my colleagues. The ugly fat teachers are usually ******s who can't solve problems on the exam they've been teaching for a decade and the attractive slim teachers are usually more competent. The correlation between obesity and low intelligence seems even more profound.
Shoot the messenger lol
