2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
Seems like you can call PI now.
93% in means theres only 210,000 votes left? and Trump is up by 215,000 votes.
So Harris wins 100% of all votes + a few dozen late night Harris Trucks.
Fox called PA
real talk. ow dogshit he is, last tiem he was in ofice, outside covid which wasnt 100% his fault, things werent as doom and gloom and gaalxy ending as people thought. we didn thave russia be hypoer aggro etc
hopefully things are as calm as they get in his tenure and then dems can reds can regroup effectively
but all this talk about him ending the world as we know it is kinda riiculous. it didnt happen in 2016-2020 until a certain covid came which legit was out of anyones control..besdies china
I think things are very different now than they were in 2016. The country has changed in a fundamental way and its not a change towards unity or collaboration. We've given fundamentalists and objectively crazy/awful people the unbridled reigns and we are all long for the ride.
Trump has said he is going to do a lot of things. His advisors that drafted proposed policy have said they are going to do a lot of things. If they follow up on even 10% of the regressive **** they are proposing then its going to be bad. Not end of the world bad.
But we can objectively look, from a macro perspective, and see economic triggers that absolutely blew up inflation and the economy and it wasn't all covid. It was a wanton disregard for money on a scale that only a golden spoon life long billionaire whos had all of his economic failures bailed out could fathom. Biden then spent the first 3 years of his presidency reigning in the economy to the point that things are pretty ****in good right now. So yeah, if the baseline is pretty ****ing good, and you want me to be okay with it being "just" pretty ****ing bad, well I have a pretty ****ing big problem with that proposal.
Anyways, only time will tell. But my track record on these types of things is pretty good to the point that I have made a career out of macro perspectives of large data sets
Trump got in last time because no one was sure what he was going to bring to the table, but this time, everyone knows what he's bringing.
USA, I'm not angry, but I am disappointed.
Alaska ends it
Because you know that anything is “constitutional” so long as the SC says so. It’s the same thing Reps said about Roe v Wade and the civil rights act. Or Bush v Gore or Trump in all of his cases. But I don’t know if Trump will appoint Federalist Society judges this time, he might want someone even more loyal like Aileen Cannon.
It would ironic if the Supreme Court was able to hold up the guardrails.
However there is also non-compliance, it has been done before by one of Trump’s presidential heroes
Not ironic because they did , when the Biden admin (and democrat led states) attempted several abuses of the constitution predicated on the covid emergency. It already happened. And SCOTUS saved the day against the actual threat to democracy (the democratic party).
Fox News is calling PA for Trump.
Of all the states left on the board, Pennsylvania is a must win for Harris. No other state is a must win for either candidate. Other than that, this crap could go on for hours to come.
I currently see it at Trump up 120,000 votes with 93% reported, but what remains is largely Harris leaning city votes. But 7% remaining is tiny. She probably need 75%+ of what is left.
Sweeping the swing states just like I said. Cry cry! You love to see it!
House definitely R favored now but it should be only a single digit number of seats I'd guess.
How bad did the Dems mess this one up.
Tell Biden he's done after 1 term. Run a proper primary. Dems probably win.
I don't think so. The biggest thing on people's minds was the economy and specifically inflation under Biden. Though inflation has dropped to 2.4% for like the past half year it doesn't matter. Prices went up and people are pissed. Because they aren't going to go down except for maybe gas.
Now its possible that say Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsome would have said something about how all countries post Covid had bad inflation and the US was likely better than most. But for most people it wouldn't matter. Even for those whose wages went up at the same rate. Paying more when out shopping is what hurts. Getting a raise would have nothing to do with it.
The irony is if Kamala had said that opening the border reduced food prices in the US because food actually got picked and it didn't cost Americans their jobs (because unemployment has been at or close to all time lows for years now) it still probably wouldn't have helped.
People think more highly of Trump now than after his presidency when he failed at Covid (the US had like 18% of all deaths in 2020 but only 3% of the population), failed at helping with health care (more than a million people lost health care because of what he did), failed at infrastructure (though he talked about it a lot), got convicted in court where the judge called him a rapist and failed in a coup attempt, got convicted in court for committing felonies. But people believed that he did great with the economy which isn't false but when you look at his graph in comparison to Obama's they were basically the same except when Covid hit and the economy got trashed.
Compared to any Democratic candidate Trump may very well have won. Personally I think Whitmer would have had the best shot (because Michigan) but my guess is that part of the reason Kamala is losing is that she is a woman. A lot of Hispanic voters apparently shifted to Trump and my guess is that's the reason. Possibly the same with some black men. And definitely many white men. In part its because Kamala wasn't popular. But in part its because the Democrats didn't reduce prices. And for whatever reason only 14% of Americans counted Abortion as the major issue. And even then a lot didn't blame Trump for the Supreme Court because the abortion ruling happened during Biden's term (I know it sounds ridiculous and yet something like 25% blamed Biden).
Anyway. Had I published results based on how undecideds went to Trump in 2020 my numbers might actually be what happened:
AZ: 3.4% Trump win 50.5% to 47.1%
GA: 1.8% Trump win 49.8% to 48%
MI: 1.3% Trump win 49.2% to 47.9%
NC: 3.5% Trump win 50.6% to 47.1%
NV: ~2% Trump win 49.7% to 47.7% more or less
PA: 1.6% Trump win 49.9% to 48.3%
WI: 3.3% Trump win 50.3% to 47%
I just thought about 55% undecideds were moving to Kamala because of how polls shifted the last couple of days.
Long term solution is having naturalization laws, and electoral laws (all components) in the constitution, so the party in power can't change them to it's advantage.
Until that is reached, it's absolutely reasonable and rational (and legal) for the party in power to do it's best to cement it's power.
All the laws are already there, they just need to be enforced. I don't have hope they'll be enforced under Trump, he is a crony for big right capitalism and they want cheap labor just as much as the Democrats want easy votes. Unfortunately for them, hispanics sort of historically voted in their own perceived interest this cycle and it may have cost them the election. We are witnessing a historic and irrevocable change in American politics since 2016. I predict the Democrats will now lean into populist socialism in their own right, just like Bannon predicted was the future back in 2014-2015. Populist socialism vs. Populist Economic Nationalism.
I think things are very different now than they were in 2016. The country has changed in a fundamental way and its not a change towards unity or collaboration. We've given fundamentalists and objectively crazy/awful people the unbridled reigns and we are all long for the ride.
Trump has said he is going to do a lot of things. His advisors that drafted proposed policy have said they are going to do a lot of things.
I think whoever ran into covid was gonna have to spend that money sadly and blow up inflation right? you coudl say no stimulusbut lets be honet, which p,itician is doign that
he wanted a 3rd check and thankfully everyone said no
as for the bolded I really hope he doesnt mass tariff like he said, beter to invest in buisinesses before you go into that whatveer youare gona tariff, cut lobbying, fund those buinsesses and then tariff
ofc republicans wont do that they will just rush it liek they wanted to with healchare
All the laws are already there, they just need to be enforced. I don't have hope they'll be enforced under Trump, he is a crony for big right capitalism and they want cheap labor just as much as the Democrats want easy votes. Unfortunately for them, hispanics sort of historically voted in their own perceived interest this cycle and it may have cost them the election. We are witnessing a historic and irrevocable change in American politics since 2016. I predict the Democrats will now lean into po
Enforcement is one thing, but fact is that if the democrats have a trifecta, and they decide to nuke the filibuster, they can court pack, they can naturalize ALL ILLEGALS, they can take as many new immigrants as they want and give them citizenship and so on. And it would be perfectly legal to do so.
That's absurd and it requires a compromise to be avoided.
Same for republicans: with a trifecta, and nuking the filibuster, they can decrease the number of representatives of the house basically guaranteeing they will always win the presidency.
In order to avoid both threats, the solution is to inscribe in the constitution the number of SCOTUS judges, the number of house representatives, and reasonable naturalization laws. And the filibuster.
Thank god Trump beat the Marxists!
America rejected the far left psychopaths.
I think whoever ran into covid was gonna have to spend that money sadly and blow up inflation right? you coudl say no stimulusbut lets be honet, which p,itician is doign that
he wanted a 3rd check and thankfully everyone said no
as for the bolded I really hope he doesnt mass tariff like he said, beter to invest in buisinesses before you go into that whatveer youare gona tariff, cut lobbying, fund those buinsesses and then tariff
ofc republicans wont do that they will just rush it liek they wanted t
The 2020 stimulus was fully bipartisan (like 98 votes int he senate) and everyone agreed was needed. It was huge, unprecedented, but needed.
Then everyone had to reopen. Except democrat led states decided that they didn't want to reopen. So when Biden won in 2020 they passed ANOTHER, completly insane, fully unjustified stimulus which wouldn't have been required if states just had reopened, which caused massive inflation because it came while the economy was already snapping back into normality thanks to reopening and the previous stimulus.
Democrats 100% caused the inflation, both by prolonging lockdowns more than necessary (necessary was 0 obviously, but let's accept spring 2020 because people were panicking), and by passing unnecessary stimulus with an economy already starting to boom
The 2020 stimulus was fully bipartisan (like 98 votes int he senate) and everyone agreed was needed. It was huge, unprecedented, but needed.
Then everyone had to reopen. Except democrat led states decided that they didn't want to reopen. So when Biden won in 2020 they passed ANOTHER, completly insane, fully unjustified stimulus which wouldn't have been required if states just had reopened, which caused massive inflation because it came while the economy was already snapping back into normality th
no democrats werent the ones that caused it 100% nor 70% but saying trump was a huge factor I think is also disengenious too
Kamala needs to win 74% of the remaining votes in PA to tie. This is looking less and less likely as Trump holds his lead.
I called early on that NH -2 Trump would mean a R landslide, it's currently sitting at -3 with 90%. Poll predictions were no less than -5
