"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread

"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread

It's been about 9.5 years and 350K posts of epicness, but "It Lives, It Lives" can live no more. The OG LLSNL Chat Thre

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29 November 2019 at 06:28 PM
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by rickroll k

mark i never called the op a scammer, i just said that there wasn't any value in past posting winners unless he had the intention to scam so he should either post them live or not post them at all - that is the post that got deleted

but he's probably intending to scam, i've seen this exact thing play out a million times with sports betting scammers, they just start off sharing their winners after the fact, builiding up a following of idiots, and then finally announce, ok i'm launching a paid disc

What has prevented you from opening up a paid discord yourself?


by All-inMcLovin k

What has prevented you from opening up a paid discord yourself?

i've thought about it a lot actually, but a lot of what i bet is simply finding bad lines so it'd be hard to charge people for info like "if you drive to snoqualmie indian reservation tonight you can find they are offering u134.5 on this college basketball game whereas the rest of the market has it at 133

i do originate for a bunch of stuff like golf though, and that is evergreen and could translate but again, it's hard to make money by marketing to people "win 55% of your golf h2h bets for a 3% roi and tons of negative swings"

it's much better to sell fake promises to bring in the idiots, one of the biggest scammers in the field is former poker scammer sean perry


he makes more money bringing in idiots, charging them a lot of money, and then when they quit after a month of losing replace them with fresh idiots


by rickroll k

i've thought about it a lot actually, but a lot of what i bet is simply finding bad lines so it'd be hard to charge people for info like "if you drive to snoqualmie indian reservation tonight you can find they are offering u134.5 on this college basketball game whereas the rest of the market has it at 133

i do originate for a bunch of stuff like golf though, and that is evergreen and could translate but again, it's hard to make money by marketing to people "win 55% of your golf h2h bets for a 3%

Good sportsbettors don’t sell picks. They just bet and win. The best bettors aren’t on anyone’s radar and they have to be that way to stay in action (not get limited by books).

The more they tout, the more they’re out (of money).

Sean Perry, Blenzick’s brother, all the same pile of crap. Just yappy chihuahuas waiting for the next suckers credit card number.


yeah, ie if i were good enough to sell picks, i'd already be making millions instead of a middle income


big one today is a teaser of KC -2.5 and BUF +7.5 at -120

kept betting it until the rez finally said no mas, so it's not a massive position because they are scared money who are used to booking $20 bets but it'll still be a much better start to 2025 if this wins


Long day in the shop. Glad to have this project off the list.

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Looks great


by Garick k

Long day in the shop. Glad to have this project off the list.

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retirement gift for king and queen spew?


by rickroll k

big one today is a teaser of KC -2.5 and BUF +7.5 at -120

kept betting it until the rez finally said no mas, so it's not a massive position because they are scared money who are used to booking $20 bets but it'll still be a much better start to 2025 if this wins

so i'll probably just ride out the variance as I essentially have BUF +7.5 at -120 tomorrow which is insanely good value (best line you can get anywhere is -310), but if i had life changing money at stake i'd probably hedge with either some BAL -7.5 at +260 (which is -ev imo so i won't) or just bet BAL moneyline and hope they win by less than 8 points for a middle

what a result in detroit tonight, i think washington turns into a pumpkin sooner than later but wouldn't mind seeing them ship it and then rename themselves the redskins again


by rickroll k

retirement gift for king and queen spew?

You're close. Retirement gift for the Baron and Baroness of Nashville.


Rats


Another project off the list, after an easier shop day. This one I've literally been working on (on and off) for the last six months. It didn't have a specific due date, so other projects passed it in the queue.

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by rickroll k

big one today is a teaser of KC -2.5 and BUF +7.5 at -120

kept betting it until the rez finally said no mas, so it's not a massive position because they are scared money who are used to booking $20 bets but it'll still be a much better start to 2025 if this wins

Score!


Wait, you found the Bills as a 7.5 dog at home? Crazy line.


Teaser. Adds 6 to the line


by marknfw k

Score!

The tease made that a stress free final drive


by marknfw k

Teaser. Adds 6 to the line

I am clearly a sports betting fish. Never heard of such a thing.


by Garick k

I am clearly a sports betting fish. Never heard of such a thing.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sp...

and the updated thread 7 years later

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40/sp...

i missed all of that era sadly so just picking up scraps and not a retired millionaire like most of the ogs in those threads like daliman, sigs, and thremp etc


sigs btw went super weird, i was one of his first twitter followers, i believe he was my first follower as well

things are fine for a few years with typical random interactions, each time he responds to anything i tweet i gain like 20 followers because he's now such a big deal in the space

then one day this happens


and i could never respond because it got blocked

literally have no clue where this came from but he also blocked me on twitter the same day, we're still in the same discord today and just don't interact directly at all which is weird because i genuinely viewed him as a big mentor a few years back where he helped me out with a lot of things i was working on in the lab - my golf model, which is 100% responsible for my transition from dfs to outright sportsbetting would never have been possible without his aid and input, something i'm forever grateful for

he also helped immensely in my pivot to single game dfs, which became my primary dfs income shortly thereafter - he's a weirdo, but so am i and i got nothing but love for the guy

to this day literally have no clue what tf happened and blocked so unable to find out, no idea wtf he means by any of that statement, autist is a badge of honor in this field fwiw, and frankly almost no chance he is not a fellow autist nor did i ever claim he was as negative (possibly i called him one, i call people autists all the time but as a friendly pat on the back not as an insult as i'm pretty sure i'm autistic myself)

worst part is i can't even claim "oh he's schizo now" because he's still plugging along without any episodes since

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