President Donald Trump
I assume it's still acceptable to have a Trump thread in a Politics forum?
So this is an obvious lie - basically aimed at
Haha the one just south of London 32 miles 😀
Owning the libs was that important huh
Goodness it was in the 20s before this? Sometimes I wonder why I don't bet anymore.
a recession is two subsequent quarters of negative GDP growth.
it's very hard to get one quickly starting at 4% unemployment with a 6% deficit pumping the economy.
that it was at 20-30% before this is only because trump tried his best with tariff threatening.
now he delivered the tariffs and they are worse than expected, and they could be that rare event (like covid lockdowns) that very quickly can make growth negative for at least 2 quarters.
but still even with those tariffs, the economy right in this moment is doing better than average, that's why recession estimates aren't close to 100% for 2025.
and the deficit is still insanely high with no end in sight.
Even before today's tariff announcement the Atlanta Fed yesterday projected 1Q GDP growth of -3.7%:
We need bahbah to tell us how this literally saves the economy from immanent collapse
Tbh I am curious how the magatards will sell this now and in 3-4 months argue how this is great. My best guess is the following sequence of events:
1. The immediate across the board increase or prices on literally fucking everything
2. Something something biden economy
Sometime later:
3. Layoffs and shuttering of stores because of increased prices and decreased sales
4. Something something biden economy
5. Something something America will be wealthy again
Sometime later:
6. We’re in a recession
7. Inflation has skyrocketed
8. We inherited a terrible economy
9. Hyandai brought manufacturing back to America. Make america great again
10. Panicked red meat bullshit like arresting the biden crime family and kicking out the browns
11. Something something America will be wealthy again
Sometime later:
12. Unemployment has risen significantly
13. Something something the numbers are fake something something some polls say I have 70% approval
14. Some bootlicking republican introduces a bill to have every American currency have Trump’s face on it
Tbh I am curious how the magatards will sell this now and in 3-4 months argue how this is great. My best guess is the following sequence of events:
Given the inevitable collapse, what's the optimal play for asset allocation here?
The list include multiple uninhabited islands near the Antarctic circle.
****ING HUNTER
The only thing I trade is NFTs. Got lucky during covid and bought some tesla puts early. for 99% of people the only strategy they should employ is DCA
I don't think the scary thing here is total economic collapse anyways. More like stagflation.
Short VOO or all in on gold
Tbh I am curious how the magatards will sell this now and in 3-4 months argue how this is great. My best guess is the following sequence of events:
1. The immediate across the board increase or prices on literally ****ing everything
2. Something something biden economy
Sometime later:
3. Layoffs and shuttering of stores because of increased prices and decreased sales
4. Something something biden economy
5. Something something America will be wealthy again
Sometime later:
6. We're in a recession
7. Inflat
At some point all the Silicon Valley billionaire elites swoop in and buy up all the distressed assets
I don't think the scary thing here is total economic collapse anyways. More like stagflation.
If Trump does no tax on first $150k and tariffs create increased prices, its essentially swapping a graduated income tax structure (for most people) for a flat consumption tax. This really should incentivize saving/investing, as consuming is costly.
Lower consumption = lower gdp/lower employment/lower inflation/lower stonks.
The only thing I trade is NFTs. Got lucky during covid and bought some tesla puts early. for 99% of people the only strategy they should employ is DCA
I don't think the scary thing here is total economic collapse anyways. More like stagflation.
The scary thing is the timing of this implantation of the tariffs and the competency of the administration delivering them
Inflation isn’t down and you’re going to actively by choice make it worse because MAGA? ‘Total economic collapse’ is obviously a massive extreme and I don’t think this is what it leads to, but a massive drop in the market and a huge spike in unemployment seems to be on the horizon
Markets are easy though. A little QE, a little.5% corporate loans, a little stock buyback, boom all time high
Economy is trash but markets are fine
My guess is some minor concessions get made, Trump calls it a W, tariffs go down, economy goes back to regularly scheduled program and by mid-late summer this is all a distant memory
tell me why i'm wrong...i'm kinda conditioned to think people overrate these events
no different than the regional bank failures or inflation that was going to sink the economy few years ago
or high energy via russia war or raising rates to fight inflation and fed have a "fork in the road"
housing crisis of 08 only 1 with any real legs that truly ****ed the economy in recent times (covid sure, but that isnt an economic issue)
While I don’t think we are dead in the water I don’t think we skate through all this turmoil with no repercussions internationally. We are already seeing China fill in for some of our soft power. Countries will seek out stability from new trade partners. You can only avoid the largest economy in the world so much but you can avoid it some
Eating-5% GDP growth (more now?) isn’t “returning to regular programming”. That’s a massive dent
I was gonna post the tarrif chart and explain the numbers but it seems someone beat me to it. madness. madness and stupidity. markets will plunge tomorrow and trump will cave. screw it. it should be explained to maga again and again
I'll tell you exactly how they arrived at the values. The number on the left represents the US's trade deficit with that country. The number on the right is 50% of that, with a minimum of 10%. That's it.
The US imports $148.2 bil from Japan, and exports $79.7 bil to Japan. That's a deficit of -46%. So Japan gets a 23% (ish) tariff.
The US imports $63.4 bil from Switzerland, and exports $25.0 bil to Switzerland. That's a deficit of -61%. So Switzerland gets a 31% tariff.
The US imports $22.2 bil from Israel, and exports $14.8 bil to Israel. That's a deficit of -33%. So Israel gets a 17% tariff.
You can check https://ustr.gov/countries-regions and do the math for every country. They're all like this. Trump literally thinks a trade deficit requires a retaliatory tariff.
Tbh I am curious how the magatards will sell this now and in 3-4 months argue how this is great. My best guess is the following sequence of events:
1. The immediate across the board increase or prices on literally ****ing everything
2. Something something biden economy
Sometime later:
3. Layoffs and shuttering of stores because of increased prices and decreased sales
4. Something something biden economy
5. Something something America will be wealthy again
Sometime later:
6. We're in a recession
7. Inflat
Here is the problem. You all are gonna judge this on the short term based off your hate for Trump. There will be short term pain but this is a paradigm shift that this country has needed for a long time. Judging the success of this in just the next few months is wrong viewed. We won't start seeing positive results for about 6 months to a year. It's weird how so many people who don't understand economics have such definitive opinions on this move. I think people don't like America first. I think people know that if this works well there will never be a Democrat President again in our lifetimes.
My guess is some minor concessions get made, Trump calls it a W, tariffs go down, economy goes back to regularly scheduled program and by mid-late summer this is all a distant memory
tell me why i'm wrong...i'm kinda conditioned to think people overrate these events
no different than the regional bank failures or inflation that was going to sink the economy few years ago
or high energy via russia war or raising rates to fight inflation and fed have a "fork in the road"
housing crisis of 08 only 1 wi
It's not about the economy.
Previously the politcal system handled economic tumoil. This time it's the political system that is undergoing convulsions - it may return to what we consider the norm or it may rupture.
