Israel / Iran thread

It is crazy to me how trump starts all these fires and while we live with the consequences of it people say ‘well what do you want him to do now?’ when the obvious answer is ‘stop starting fires’

FWIW, I think it might actually be good for all sides if we can find a way to de-escalate.

Israel has made a point that the IRGC can no longer continue to attack it indirectly through Arab proxies, and grind Israel down while suffering no consequences on the home front. Moving forward, If the IRGC decides to keep supplying groups like Houthis and Hezbollah to attack Israel, it know knows there will be real consequences for them. It wont just be Arab's and Israeli's hundreds of miles away doing all the dying for IRGC machinations. Which might incentive a change of course.

Also, so many IRGC leaders were assassinated, there is a chance a new leadership class can come in with different priorities. Of course they could be worse and this backfires horribly, but hopefully they will be better.

At this point I dont really see how the US could stop Iran from getting a nuke if it was determined to do so (and I kind of assume they already have). So I dont see any value in going after Iran's nuclear facilities. Although I am perfectly fine if Israel keeps degrading IRGC conventional military capabilities until a detente is reached.

Israel for its part it seems has destroyed enough of the IRGCs regional network of terror that it has some more security in the medium term and it is time to take a breath and focus on making sure they dont rebuild. And escalation of hostilities would probably just be counterproductive in that there will be a "circle the wagons" effect form the Iranian people so they support the IRGC more. Which is in no ones best interests.

What is the best strategy iyo?

Lots of anti Trump experts ITT but none have a solution or proposal of what to do next.

Based on the information I have, I don’t think Trump should do anything. See how the next week or so develops.

He of course has a lot more information than me, but I am not super confident he will use it to make a good decision.

Like I said, Trump created this mess and he doesn't know how to solve it. Neither do I. My solution would have been for Trump to leave the middle east alone starting in 2016; keep Obama's Iran deal in place, don't meddle by forcing the Abraham Accords just so you can say you've transformed the Middle East. But none of that is helpful now. At this point the best thing he can probably do is back away and let better run NATO nations take the lead.

Taleb made this post about Britain, but it really works for any NATO nation. These nations have no force (or will) to back their words, so they are irrelevant on the world stage.

To make matters even worse, their own internal large Muslim populations would riot if they acted against their wishes. Making it an even worse idea to get involved in ME politics.

As far as JCPOA, IF it had been kept in place the Uranium enrichment might not be an issue. But Iran had already made a commitment to use the economic relief to devote to arming and supporting Islamist Arab militias to tear apart the Arab world and threaten and attack Israel. So I dont think this part of the dynamic would have been any better.

Nice baits, luckily for you we can't tell the truth on this forum.

Might as well rename "Politics and Society" to "Talmudic circlejerk".

Oh boy

In other news there is an alleged Trump social media post floating around saying the US bombed 3 Iranian nuclear sites. I guess it is true?

I guess now it is time for peace though. So go ahead and lock the thread. Nothing more to see here.

Mission accomplished.

seems true and what it shows is that Israel was getting its ass kicked and had to call in its mafia daddy to help them.

Like 0.1% of Iran’s power is (was) from nuclear. This doesn’t actually affect their military effectiveness at all. They can continue to kick Israel’s ass same as they have been.

I guess we have an answer as to whether Trump really took personally all the “death to USA” rhetoric and alleged assassination attempts.

He said he didn’t like it, but you don’t really know until you know.

they can cause problems for the US and other countries in the area too

I can't say I'm unhappy about this - Iran had their chances to surrender

1 hour 15 minutes til this ****ing ****** speaks to the country

But he sends out a SICK TWEET on truth social

And iran says trump is completely full of ****

God were so ****ed

None of this would’ve happened if Trump was president!

If you ever are in the Bay Area feel free to send me a DM so I can punch you in the face, spit on you while you’re on the ground, take a pic, post it ITT and tell you I can’t say I’m unhappy about it

Thank you for your attention to this matter

Of course. Like I said, this nothing to their military capabilities. Still very formidable.

And you support the Ukraine war continuing without negotiations with Russia?

Thank you for your attention to this matter

this is Western civilization. submit to our whims and make yourself a slave or we will do mass murder. the West is just a gangster protection racket.