Trump Economy and Poker
About six years ago I put up a post pointing out that the good Trump economy was probably very good for the poker games
Friedman thought that tariffs just for the sake of tariffs were very bad. But the Trump tariffs are different. They are reciprocal and are being used to force good trade deals where the tariffs will come off or at least be adjusted in a fair way.As an example, whenever one of our books is sold in Europe, the amount of money that we get is reduced, and reduced by a lot, by somet
Maybe in the future when you’re as wrong about something as you can possibly be, you would sit on that and reflect rather than how right you are about something else. Maybe you wouldn’t feel as attacked as often if you ruminated on your mistakes snowflake
It looks like Trump just reached a good trade deal with Japan and the stock market, as I type this, has reached a new all-time high.
And for the Milton Friedman fans, since he's no longer with us, he can't comment on what Trump is doing with the tariffs. But Thomas Sowell, who is probably as close to Friedman as you can get, has come out recently saying that while there is still some danger relative to the tariffs, he supports what Trump is doing.
By the way, we modeled this website (and our whole 2+2 business) on the ideas of Milton Friedman, and the new owners (of this website) as far as I can tell, have continued along the same path. I suspect that if you ran this website, the exchange of ideas and all the different point of views would be significantly restricted.
This gambling losses addendum aside, it is very hard for a layman such as myself to estimate the broad impacts of the BBB for the country. If only there was someone who worked at the Census for a few months back in the 1970s who could unpack it for me. Or failing that I would settle for somebody who has read the first 10 pages of the Fountainhead a few times.
I worked for the Census Bureau for just over six years. You should get your facts straight.
But two things happened to me. In 1979, I watched the series Free to Choose by Milton Friedman (which ran on PBS) and then I was sent out West to work on the 1980 Census. Between these two things, I declined to go back to my old job in Statistical Methods Division at Census headquarters in Suitland, Maryland and was off on my own for a number of months until I was hired by the Northrop Corp (now Northrop-Grumman).
With all due respect ,
Maybe it would be time to review some books mason and not relying on memory .
Now if u believe increase tax (tarifs) and increasing debt load in a non crisis environment is great for the future on this country .
Yes I guess you righ then but it certainly not what Friedman advocated .
Trump is light years away of being an apostle of Friedman .
With all due respect ,Maybe it would be time to review some books mason and not relying on memory .Now if u believe increase tax (tarifs) and increasing debt load in a non crisis environment is great for the future on this country .Yes I guess you righ then but it certainly not what Friedman advocated .Trump is light years away of being an apostle of Friedman .
Why don’t you read what I wrote. I also think that tariffs for the sake of tariffs are bad, and I agree that there is danger here. But that’s not what is happening. Look at the new trade agreement with Japan.
Why don’t you read what I wrote. I also think that tariffs for the sake of tariffs are bad, and I agree that there is danger here. But that’s not what is happening. Look at the new trade agreement with Japan.
I was not alluding to that .
That is why I posted videos .
Clearly Friedman says even retaliatory tariffs are bad (2nd video)…
Yes whats great about it for Japan deal ?
US Consumers will pay 15% more , awesome.
Let’s turn the problem around .
I would gladly read any piece of paper or view videos you could find that Friedman says tarrifs could be good in some circumstance shrug .
I’m astounding a libertarian like yourself think tariffs can be good just because trump says so while you are surely ready to blame any other taxes existing , example the VAT .
I was not alluding to that .That is why I posted videos .Clearly Friedman says even retaliatory tariffs are bad (2nd video)…Yes whats great about it for Japan deal ?US Consumers will pay 15% more , awesome.Let’s turn the problem around .I would gladly read any piece of paper or view videos you could find that Friedman says tarrifs could be good in some circumstance shrug .I’m
Except they’re not retaliatory tariffs. They are tariffs designed to encourage good trade deals, and I just read that they’re close to a similar deal to the Japan deal with the European Union.
The trouble with this thread, and many of the other posts I’ve read on this forum, is that some posters hate Trump so much that they want the country to do poorly. I want the country to do well no matter who is president.
Except they’re not retaliatory tariffs. They are tariffs designed to encourage good trade deals, and I just read that they’re close to a similar deal to the Japan deal with the European Union.The trouble with this thread, and many of the other posts I’ve read on this forum, is that some posters hate Trump so much that they want the country to do poorly. I want the country to do
man i am dramatically to the right of Trump on the economics, he is a center left moderate for me. Tariffs suck. The only good option is unilaterally removing all tariffs and constitutionally ban tariffs and quotas.
Then you can embargo a country if you want for non economic reasons. But if you have an enemy you don't put tariffs. You stop any dealing with them and make it a crime for any citizen or corporation to have any deal with the enemy. It's either allin or nothing there is no in between bullshit.
Except they’re not retaliatory tariffs. They are tariffs designed to encourage good trade deals, and I just read that they’re close to a similar deal to the Japan deal with the European Union.The trouble with this thread, and many of the other posts I’ve read on this forum, is that some posters hate Trump so much that they want the country to do poorly. I wan
What is a good trade deal for you ?
Is it about trade deficit or it’s about having cheaper good for Americans that makes a good trade for Americans ?
What you belief those future deals would accomplish more then what was already there for the Americans people ?
I hope u dont believe Americans will have cheaper goods now with these new deals ….
What is a good trade deal for you ?
Is it about trade deficit or it’s about having cheaper good for Americans that makes a good trade for Americans ?
What you belief those future deals would accomplish more then what was already there for the Americans people ?
I hope u dont believe Americans will have cheaper goods now with these new deals ….
I’m not an economist, so I won’t attempt to describe what is a good deal. But I have always worked as a statistician, and I can see that the stock market has gone up significantly, and the word significant has a special meaning for statisticians. So, my conclusion is that something right must be happening. It’s really that simple.
I’m not an economist, so I won’t attempt to describe what is a good deal. But I have always worked as a statistician, and I can see that the stock market has gone up significantly, and the word significant has a special meaning for statisticians. So, my conclusion is that something right must be happening. It’s really that simple.
As a statistician you know the meaning of "multivariate".
Now, congress just passed a very very pro business bill, the so called "big beautiful bill". That bill makes the market happy. That bill is good for business. Communists will complain about that bill, and libertarian like me do complain as well (some provision like that on gambling are completly ****ed up) but overall it's obvious and uncontroversial that the bill is good for business.
Now you have that specific event ongoing (the market effect of the bill passing). We could be 2-3-5-10% higher if Trump hadn't touched tariffs at all.
Ok i understand, the opposite is true, how can i claim tariffs are actually bad for the stockmarket?
Well i can because in april, after the ******ed declaration by Trump on april 2, we had a market rout with very few analogous historically, something akin to covid lockdowns or lehman brothers exploding, up to 20% in losses in a very short time span. ENTIRELY AND UNIQUELY BECAUSE OF THE TARIFF MONSTROSITIES.
Then Trump flipflopped completly and we had a very strong recovery. It was the V shape to shame all V shapes. All about tariffs. Tariffs on : terrible disaster. Tariffs off: everyone is wanking in the trading room.
So please FOR THE LOVE OF GOD don't claim the market is happy about tariffs. We have the receipts
You can’t convince someone of something that they don’t want to be convinced of.
As a statistician you know the meaning of "multivariate". Now, congress just passed a very very pro business bill, the so called "big beautiful bill". That bill makes the market happy. That bill is good for business. Communists will complain about that bill, and libertarian like me do complain as well (some provision like that on gambling are completly ****ed up) but overall it
You’re another one who should read what I wrote.
I’m not an economist, so I won’t attempt to describe what is a good deal. But I have always worked as a statistician, and I can see that the stock market has gone up significantly, and the word significant has a special meaning for statisticians. So, my conclusion is that something right must be happening. It’s really that simple.
You claimed it was a good deal because Trump said it was a good deal but Trump called his previous trade deals the best trade deals ever at the time then more recently called them the worst trade deals ever and questioned what kind of idiot would agree to them
Trump agreed to them. He didn't just agree to them he brokered them exclusively. That alone should make you question the words coming out of Trumps mouth
And yeah, I have to hope that somehow this administration are economic genius's like no genius ever seen before because they continuously make academically dumb decisions that experts understand to be dumb. The alternative to them being uniquely genius is that our country is uniquely ****ed
btw it looks like the trade deal with Japan has been based on the IEEPA law (a law giving POTUS wide and untested powers during emergencies).
The same law whose applications are currently being litigated, with the trump admin losing it's first round (court siding with plaintiffs that no, IEEPA doesn't allow the president to set arbitrary tariff rates), waiting for an appeal decision that should come very soon (possibly within a month).
If the trump admin loses that case (the generic case that IEEPA can be used to set tariffs) then the Japan deal unravels as well
You claimed it was a good deal because Trump said it was a good deal but Trump called his previous trade deals the best trade deals ever at the time then more recently called them the worst trade deals ever and questioned what kind of idiot would agree to themTrump agreed to them. He didn't just agree to them he brokered them exclusively. That alone should make you question t
Okay. It sounds like you should sell the market short. Is that your advice? By the way, the market is at an all-time high, and nothing goes up forever.
Okay. It sounds like you should sell the market short. Is that your advice? By the way, the market is at an all-time high, and nothing goes up forever.
Markets aren't analogous to economies.
The stock market is largely correlated with money supply. Trump has clearly messaged that he wants Powell to lower rates. Powells term is up in 8 months. You do the math
Markets aren't analogous to economies.
The stock market is largely correlated with money supply. Trump has clearly messaged that he wants Powell to lower rates. Powells term is up in 8 months. You do the math
I agree that interest rates need to go down and expect that to happen in the future. Also, using your argument, the market went up the last year Biden was president. Does that mean the market was anticipating that Trump would win the election!
I agree that interest rates need to go down and expect that to happen in the future. Also, using your argument, the market went up the last year Biden was president. Does that mean the market was anticipating that Trump would win the election!
Yeah the stock market went from 5700 to 6100 under expectations of loose monetary policy AFTER Trump won and tanked 20% because of regressive tariffs
None of this is inconsistent with what anyone is posting to you
Multiple reasons:
1. He threatened extreme levels of tariffs then didn't implement them. Current levels of tariff are marginally higher than the tariffs under Trump v1 and Biden
2. They just lowered corporate taxes
3. The market is pricing in economic expansion
It also helps to understand that on a dollar value the stock market is lower than it was in October 2024, which isn't entirely relevant, but is a data point that exists
Multiple reasons:1. He threatened extreme levels of tariffs then didn't implement them. Current levels of tariff are marginally higher than the tariffs under Trump v1 and Biden2. They just lowered corporate taxes3. The market is pricing in economic expansionIt also helps to understand that on a dollar value the stock market is lower than it was in October 2024, which isn't ent
Okay. I hope that some of these people who keep carrying on about regressive tariffs read this.
I’m not an economist, so I won’t attempt to describe what is a good deal. But I have always worked as a statistician, and I can see that the stock market has gone up significantly, and the word significant has a special meaning for statisticians. So, my conclusion is that something right must be happening. It’s really that simple.
Well if you think it’s about trump , why did the market drop 20% when he announced the original tarriffs ?
Fwiw the stock markets by every metrics you can find is incredibly overpriced.
High Assets prices can be explained by inflation, speculation, stock buyback , foreign ownership,Russia war , etc.
I wouldn’t read too much about the stock market evaluation with such a short time frame .
But if it really means something for you , well damn, Biden did an incredibly great job with a massive crisis in Covid didn’t he ?
Would seem in this latest round of Mason posts that he is not really the guy you’d want to take seriously on Trump, the economy or poker
