Started a €150 to €10k Holdem challenge

Agreed. A nitty pre player here with quite taggy post stats. I think right here they are just way over estimating their overpairs without thinking a lot how the board connects. Like "I got aces, stacks in every run out", and here we are.

yeyyyy....

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 125.5 BB (VPIP: 20.83, PFR: 17.48, 3Bet Preflop: 8.56, Hands: 2, 402)
CO: 317.3 BB (VPIP: 23.90, PFR: 18.16, 3Bet Preflop: 7.44, Hands: 8, 029)
BTN: 111.45 BB (VPIP: 28.74, PFR: 25.29, 3Bet Preflop: 16.90, Hands: 181)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 103 BB (VPIP: 24.27, PFR: 15.53, 3Bet Preflop: 4.62, Hands: 213)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♦ 9♥

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 7♥ 4♣ T♦
Hero bets 2 BB, BB raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

Turn: (26 BB, 2 players) 8♣
Hero checks, BB bets 20 BB, Hero calls 20 BB

River: (66 BB, 2 players) 6♠
Hero bets 67 BB, BB calls 67 BB

Regardless of these results, balancing that jam requires I do that also with almost anything less than top pair with like 100% frequency, and still only like 50/50 donk jam straights. Pretty horrid call by villain imo given how damn hard it is for me to find enough bluffs to balance value here, but that's their money and they'll do whatever they want with it,

Here we are and still rolling .

No idea why the same graph is there twice

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 147.45 BB (VPIP: 68.18, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 23)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 14.24, PFR: 9.88, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 344)
Hero (SB): 105.6 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.08, PFR: 18.27, 3Bet Preflop: 9.16, Hands: 1, 868)
UTG: 101.2 BB (VPIP: 62.71, PFR: 1.69, 3Bet Preflop: 2.99, Hands: 121)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♣ J♥

fold, CO raises to 4 BB, BTN calls 4 BB, Hero raises to 16 BB, fold, fold, BTN raises to 47 BB, Hero raises to 105.6 BB, BTN calls 53 BB

Flop: (205 BB, 2 players) Q♣ Q♦ 6♣

Turn: (205 BB, 2 players) 7♦

River: (205 BB, 2 players) J♠

I really wanted to fold pre but just couldn't, not against an unknown nit. If their range here is JJ-KK, AKo+ (AA 3bets) and no folds I have to, AKo and QQ can jam. 40.25% equity against that range with JJ, 43% required after rake. But dunno, it's closer I think because even nits do stuff like this with worse than that occasionally, like maybe they now just decided they're done with my aggression and find this line with their AQ or AJ. Also we could argue the previous 4 BB open card removes more outs from their range than hours, but the effect is probably not significant enough to change the strat against the strongest scenario.
The result is just whatever.

Vs nitty it's better a fold imho. I agree his action his strange: call pre BU vs CO and cold 4bet with half stack. he's unknown, I prefer a safe choose.

I don't disagree. They are not as uncapped here as it might seem and that half stack 4b is a very important data point I omitted. It could very well be they flat KK here just because a 3b monkey like me from a nit's POV is still left to act.

These 5bet jams by villain don't happen very often, but I take it as a compliment. Actually well played by them I think given my trigger happy 4bet finger

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 23.94, PFR: 17.27, 3Bet Preflop: 9.59, Hands: 339)
BB: 117.55 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 30.00, Hands: 56)
UTG: 146.75 BB (VPIP: 22.99, PFR: 19.40, 3Bet Preflop: 7.75, Hands: 343)
Hero (CO): 117.3 BB
BTN: 124 BB (VPIP: 20.95, PFR: 17.59, 3Bet Preflop: 8.63, Hands: 2, 487)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♥ K♦

fold, Hero raises to 2.3 BB, BTN raises to 6.9 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 21.5 BB, BTN raises to 124 BB, Hero calls 95.8 BB

Flop: (236.1 BB, 2 players) 7♦ 6♠ J♣

Turn: (236.1 BB, 2 players) 4♥

River: (236.1 BB, 2 players) A♣

Players agreed to run it twice.

Flop #2: (236.1 BB, 2 players) Q♥ T♠ 8♣

Turn #2: (236.1 BB, 2 players) 4♦

River #2: (236.1 BB, 2 players) Q♠

[image]ofCG72L.PNG[/im

..]

Don't play heads up against me during this challenge, it won't end well for you lol.

Nice graph

You're obviously a 10-15bb+/100 winner. Should be moving up when you have 25 buyins and moving down when you have less than 20. And that's conservative br management.

Idk if there's any rakeback on the site you play, but if there's rakeback on top that would certainly make you a 12-17bb+/100 winner which means you can be even more aggressive.

a 10bb/100 winner has something like 5% risk of ruin playing with 13 buyins and refusing to move down. Since a 10bb/100 winner most likely will be increasing their BR by 1BI every 1k hands they basically have to instantly go on a bottom 5% run to go busto.

Not moving up with 25bi+ while playing micros on a soft site is really bad br management. you can always move down again, you're just burning money by playing lower than you should when you have access to good games.

Doing that thank you! I have some holes in my game that need attending, therefore slightly more conservative BRM. I also wihdraw a few hundred bucks every month to cover pio and GTOW subscription, so my current roll isn't as much as accumulated profits. Generally don't disagree at all to be honest though.

oh so its not just a challenge, it’s money you need to pay for stuff

Uhm yeah kind of, can't change the headline anymore. Maybe like a diary about the process and seeing how long it'll take given the info I gave in the intro. I'm kind of a BRM nit anyways and not close to having a roll for 100NL yet, but yeah maybe a better way to explain it would be saying "a challenge to hit 10k in total profit while withdrawing a couple of hundred every month". When I started playing poker again I initially made a promise to myself, that the first deposit I make is going to be the last time I invest my non-poker money in poker again, and I've stuck with it ever since, and happy with my decision. That might change as I don't necessarily need to actually withdraw every month, and can afford to keep my wizard sub without it, but it does effectively mean that this "challenge" will probably take a bit longer than it would if I always moved up and down stakes with Kelly criterion BRM without never touching my BR at all, if that makes sense.

Pretty close to 20% of the "challenge" now after both cash an MTT's, but some room left. Dusted off a couple bi at 50NL, but 20NL filled it up at the same time. I'll be back at 50 pretty soon I think and then this journey hopefully speeds up ;D

Great results, you're destroying it!

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100.35 BB (VPIP: 26.48, PFR: 21.37, 3Bet Preflop: 10.73, Hands: 8, 612)
BB: 121.15 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 14.42, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 220)
UTG: 105.35 BB (VPIP: 34.62, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 26)
MP: 201.85 BB (VPIP: 17.25, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 6.56, Hands: 701)
CO: 112.7 BB (VPIP: 24.60, PFR: 17.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.37, Hands: 899)
Hero (BTN): 125.65 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5♠ A♠

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) 3♦ 9♥ 5♣
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (8.5 BB, 2 players) A♦
BB bets 4.25 BB, Hero raises to 19.85 BB, BB calls 15.6 BB

River: (48.2 BB, 2 players) 9♣
BB bets 25 BB, fold

Not the nicest river ever. Villain pre stats and 3b size read are relevant, river donk took them like 3 seconds. I don't think this one can fold AX to a raise jam on the river, so not turning this one into a bluff. I'm also not convinced I'm ahead here 25% of the time or more. I could very well be wrong, but this looks very much like a higher kicker AX overestimating their top pair that doesn't wanna see a check back by hero on the river with worse AX... Could also be overthinking about this spot against an obvious low VPIP fish. Not really worried about 9X since flop went XX and their pre 3b is so nitty. Sample size might be a bit too low though, but it's still enough to be a data point I think.

getting there...

iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 41.35 BB (VPIP: 44.24, PFR: 31.80, 3Bet Preflop: 13.75, Hands: 223)
CO: 108.85 BB (VPIP: 24.29, PFR: 18.10, 3Bet Preflop: 6.95, Hands: 864)
BTN: 122.5 BB (VPIP: 23.46, PFR: 19.96, 3Bet Preflop: 11.24, Hands: 1, 116)
Hero (SB): 121.35 BB
BB: 124.95 BB (VPIP: 29.97, PFR: 23.80, 3Bet Preflop: 9.40, Hands: 817)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 24.79, PFR: 18.80, 3Bet Preflop: 6.98, Hands: 117)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♠ 8♥

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, BTN raises to 6 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 12 BB

Flop: (39 BB, 2 players) 6♣ 5♥ 2♥
Hero checks, BTN bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 29.45 BB, fold

Kinda interesting hand going on. Lag short fish min opens from the MP. BTN reg 3x 3bets, and I just decide to cold 4 assuming reg 3bets very wide here. I think it's OK to skip the otherwise almost 'mandatory' half pot cbet on the flop and XR instead, because in reality I think both BTN and Hero ranges look more like SB vs BTN 3bp ranges than cold 4 ranges due to the MP fish dynamic. Could just go with the cbet as well ofc, but I think a check by OOP here makes an average reg wanna over stab the flop almost intuitively. Could be wrong though.

Was waiting for this to happen. Not really concerning being just break even for like 15 k hands. Been honestly playing like shit occasionally, and one naturally loses a bit of confidence when the run isn't that great either. But lol happens. Therefore no more 50NL until I can get the ship steaming ahead again. It's still been fun playing though, just got the Wizard AI as well for September, because I feel it just immensely speeds up finding better flop and turn sizes and barrels and identifying lead boards more systematically than before. I had so many things I wanted to check out with it anyways, and I knew it could do that before, so instead of just trying it, now I purchased it with a pretty good idea of what I want to make it do for me that pio can't really easily. So basically just taking a lot of notes from what I learn from reports, so that in October when I probably won't have it, I can still get work done quicker and easier on just pio by reducing flop and turn sizes to just one for each board. The new 3-way solves are also super interesting. And oh well, it's not that much money after all.

Nic graph. Seems like you are absolutely crushing!

Why are you not moving to 50nl? What's your BR? Seems like you've already won 40bi for 50.

Hi and thank you. I'm currently playing some 50NL on the side, but because my recent short term run there or 20 hasn't been that great, I'm quite happy not doing max volume there. Also, in this pool, 50 is considerably tougher than 20, because the entire cash game pool here is so small even some 200-1k regs occasionally drop down there if there isn't action higher, or if they are trying to rebuild confidence. Also right now I'm studying much more than playing, so there are just a lot of things and tricks in my game I feel more comfortable trying lower first, if that makses sense 😃

Pretty sure I'll have most of my volume up at 50 by October, but you never know

Train keeps running. Losing higher and winning lower, as usual. About 22% of the 'challenge' now complete.

How come you have less hands than the last graph you posted?

Oh shit yeah good spot. The previous one was apparently filtered to start from June 1st instead of July 1st.