New York City Area Hype Discussion

NBD though I might have missed some announcement of MGM buying or partnering w RW.

One thing I think people are missing (and it's a large thread so maybe someone mentioned this but I didn't see it) but NYC real estate is some of the most expensive in the United States.

We all know that poker is the least profitable thing a casino can do. Anything else - slots, table games, restaurants - brings in higher profits than poker.

When you combine the most expensive price per square foot with the least profitable thing per square foot, it will not be a big priority for the casino that will be shelling out hundreds of millions i in licensing fees, building and opening costs before they see a penny.

It’s definitely been brought up. Even that said , Resorts World is going to tie Venetian Macau for the most tables in a casino in the entire world. For them to not have poker implies they expect the demand for other more profitable games to regularly fill all 800 tables, which seems unlikely . Not impossible but unlikely.

That said, they do propose a progressive roll out of those 800 tables so very very possible, maybe even most likely that we don’t get poker when they open in the summer

They don’t need to fill all those tables regularly. It depends on how oft3n the do fill them, the house take when they do and how much would that floor space make as poker.

It is very possible the costs in NYC are so high that the rake needed is too much for the games to go. What rake will be needed for poker to be at least break even for the house? Will people play that long term with that rake.

Albeit underground games in NYC go with very high rake. But some people still won’t leave those games to move to casino with similar rake but even if all did, is that enough player pool?

Others are touting the tourist draw. But all the other attractions NYC has hurts. Someone going to be a tourist gambler can still get much better value in Vegas. And the tourists going to NYC are more likely to go out to a fine dining spot not in the casino (but in Vegas the fine dining is in the casino). Evening entertainment off property is much more prevalent. So again patrons are less captive. Even just the hotel situation hurts in NYC unless casinos seriously comp.

Sure there will be tourists, likely plenty initially. I expect Vegas reg tourists will want to check out NYC casino. Might even convince my degen wife to go back to NYC for first time in 35 years.

Similar those talking about biz travelers. Used to travel plenty on biz. After working all day, rushing back to room to answer email, then going out to biz dinner, I really didn’t look forward to a long session of poker so I could do it all again the next day. Now conventions are a different story. But given the costs are they going to NYC?

Sure the casino will be packed initially and poker will be the same. But over time it will slacken. Won’t die, but games won’t be as awesome given the needed rake, after initial surge. The first 12, 18, 24 months sure.

We have seen this in Boston, Chicago, DC. NYC will always be a big market. Maybe with a limit of 3 licenses, it does stay awesome. But if it does, do you think the licenses will remain just 3? Watched the two CAC votes. Some of the “demands” being added were pretty onerous financially and were still voted down.

Chicago, DC, Boston aren’t really comparable. Look at LA, Miami, Houston, Dallas if you want an idea what to expect. Rake might be pretty dumb, if you’re playing for profit you will basically need to be playing 2/5+ to have a shot and after hotel or rent if you live nearby the reality will be mostly only 5/10+ players will have a shot

More would take another constitutional amendment (passed in two consecutive legislative sessions, then on the general election ballot). I think these downstate licenses would have to work out insanely well for voters to go for it again, or for legislators to even bring it up. And the losers this time around might not be too eager to try again. Though it'd probably be minimum ten years from now, so who knows.

They probably will want huge lists for poker so people go degen their money in other parts of the casino.

Can’t speak to LA but Dallas was never especially good. The underground games are way better. Most of the rooms in Houston are dead. Htown is perfect example of over saturated market. ,Miami is a bit better but nothing like it was.

I know a few people who did move to the Boston area and the games weren't as good as they expected. I know some people who were thinking about the move but then covid happened and that was that.

NYC has so many home games with absolute punters. When you see an NYC home game player who barely plays in casinos we all know the type of player we're getting. Not that I'm tapped into the Boston home game scene but I haven't seen the same type of thing with Boston home game players in casinos.

In general just from talking to people over the years at Parx my guess would be around half are from NYC. Even for people in North Jersey NYC could be a better option depending on the time of day.

I'm convinced games would be great for a couple of years if these casinos bother with big poker rooms. But i'm not convinced that happens. They're so busy fleecing people with machines that aren't even legal in other states, why would they care about poker especially at first? They can deal table games with odds worse than you can find anywhere else in the country and the place would still be packed. I mean just look at what Encore did in Boston with poker post covid, and look how MGM has treated poker at borgata. Why would I think MGM empire city would care about poker at this point?

If you can sustain 1-2 10/25, 3-5 2/5/10, and 4-7 1/2/5 plo games on a daily basis which is what Dallas does, you're doing well. Houston does seem to be in decline but still gets bigger games daily. Miami is mostly all 5c and NL but generally speaking FL has pretty good action overall

LA is more of a NL city but there's action everywhere. NYC imo will be most comparable with LA but hopefully will be more PLO heavy

That's bc PLO is much more of an equity based, ok we gotta both get the money in here kinda game vs NL which is way more of a psychological warfare kind of game where people are trying to hide everything about themselves. PLO it's like OK I got the 65%er vs your 35%er but you got odds to get it in so we can stop pretending to be strong and just get it in and have fun. Which is why all the fish come to PLO to blow off steam rather than NL

Yeah, makes sense to have a thread for this. NY’s online betting scene is heating up fast, and moves like Ignition leaving kinda hint that regulated sites might actually be closer than we think. Keeping a dedicated spot for updates would save us digging through random posts every time something happens.

This is unfortunately exactly what I meant by this kind of thing is overstated. I can’t speak to the golden age of poker. I can’t speak to PLO. But I can’t speak very well to Borgata NLHE 2018-now.

The 5/10 is very good. It’s only real issue is not running consistently as it did years past. But it’s not a hoodie and face covering infested tank off. There’s a lot of regs but most of them aren’t great. I’m not saying it’s a super mega poker boom quality honey pot. But if you’re a decent winner at 2/5 you would win more in the 5/10 because of the lower rake impact and higher stakes. And yet there’s a room full of people who claim they play the lower stakes because the games are better and it’s just not true. There’s also very regularly whale type players who are there to gamble and have fun, and they do. Which tbh is also something that doesn’t really happen at the lower stakes, I don’t think most 1/3 players even know what a whale looks like.

I sit right next to the NL/PLO mix you’re talking about all the time. Again, it’s not really how you describe. The game definitely varies in quality, but they often have a really good game running.

I think if the NYC games are initially good, more pros will move in to make them less good. I live in Northern NJ, Parx and Resorts World are a coin flip in terms of travel time, and with traffic Resorts World would be worse, while I almost never hit traffic going to Parx.

The thing is this happens in games everywhere but NYC is at some level uniquely shielded from it. Obviously pros will follow the good games. But there’s WAY more dumb/not good at poker money in NYC than there are crushers. And poker pros aren’t likely to move to NYC for juicy games unless they’re absolute honey pots, because the real estate is absolutely insane and you can likely make more elsewhere because of that.

If there’s a 100 table room in NYC, and every single pro currently playing Parx and Borgata plays in NYC, the games in the NYC room will still be better than the Parx and AC games

The game should never deteriorate to this point. Mid stakes +NL players ruin their own player pool to the point the game is so bad this stuff starts to matter. It's self sabotage.

I think the expensive cost of living is why LA games stayed so good for so long. It's hard for pros in lower stakes games to cover expenses in a city like LA or NYC. That's why Vegas attracted a ton of low stakes grinders and why Vegas are are nittier than most other places. I'm sure if NYC has a lot of games there will be some euro flop houses with 10 euros in a 3 bed room apartment but overall it's not like a ton of people will be able to move to NYC to grind low stakes games.

I moved out of Manhattan because I couldn't justify my rent going up 33% in two years, and I do ok compared with other workers. I know NYC is home to high earners, but they are ready to elect a mayor based on financial hardship. I agree low stakes players won't make it in NYC unless they have roommates. My concern is about the 5/10+ plus games. If the same pros that play in Parx and Borgata plays in those games, how will they be different? One or two more fish at the table?

You can get some real blasters but if their experience is miserable they're just going to go back to their high raked home games especially when they can play on credit. Plenty of terrible NL players still play for decent stakes they just don't do it in public games.

Yeah, and take it from a NYC real estate agent, these people won't even be able to get approved/qualify for these apartments, either. We have some pretty strict mandatory requirements as far as on paper income and credit

Maybe they all could live in a van down by the river, Matt Foley style.

You'll be doing a lot of doobie rolling when you're living in a van down by the river!

No, but seriously, many of them would end up there lol

Freedom Plaza application shot down, aka, the last Manhattan one.

Now we just have The Coney, Metropolitan Park, and Bally's (outside of Empire City and Resorts World)

Empire City and Resorts World vote Thursday but I don't see anything for the others that are left. Doesn't it have to be by the end of the month?