2024 Fantasy Football Thread
Welcome to the 2024 fantasy season, where I'm officially addicted to best ball. I've been drafting since the end of Jan
One reason I chose Mathology is because I knew he'd be chasing the regular season leaderboard, in theory resulting in higher advance rates. He's also just a good drafter. He had the highest scoring regular season team last year. He has 9 teams in the top 10,000. Expectation for a max drafter is 2.23. Looking at his top scoring teams are interesting. He was RB and QB heavy
His QB room and TE room are both great in all three teams. On the first team and third team if he loses one of his top 3 RB's he is in big trouble. The receiver rooms are fragile. He also has some under performing super stars like Barkley, Chase, and Jefferson. If they can get it going he'll be in great shape. Obviously things are concerning for Chase. Barkley is doing what I thought he would this year which is why I soft faded him. Jeffersons QB situation is concerning.
It's obvious why these teams are off to a good start. I bet these teams are in significantly worse shape after the bye weeks.
Yeah, you can go up and down the leaderboard and critique the future of every team in one shape or another. I was more so interested in how he went about structuring these teams, especially from a WR standpoint and the fact he was constructing 3 QB builds with Josh, even after taking QB2 in the 9th round on two of those teams and QB2 in the 11th round on the other. I would have stopped at two QBs on all 3.
On team 1, Bryce has contributed 10.5 additional, Love has contributed 0. Love would have contributed 9.1 additional without Bryce.
On team 2, AR has obviously contributed nothing. Baker has contributed 8.1 additional.
On team 3, JJM has contributed nothing. Dak has contributed 11.3 additional.
Here is the top scoring team so far. 494.44 points. 2nd place is at 481.34.
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Yeah, you can go up and down the leaderboard and critique the future of every team in one shape or another. I was more so interested in how he went about structuring these teams, especially from a WR standpoint and the fact he was constructing 3 QB builds with Josh, even after taking QB2 in the 9th round on two of those teams and QB2 in the 11th round on the other. I would ha
He has had some spectacular performances from guy's who will probably not come close to what they have done so far. I will take all of my Josh Allen teams over this one all day.
My first big oops! moment of the year.
I had three DFS lineups that had Tre Tucker in the flex. I also had the Minnesota defense in all three. I decided at the last moment to switch out Minnesota for the much cheaper Browns defense and upgrade at flex. I don't know who I upgraded to because I can't look. I think my process was right but it was a horrible result.
When should I start looking at my teams and seeing what my likelihood of advancing is? Have 3 teams in 1st currently in the puppy but sf on Underdog. Obviously I've been looking at them, but not sure when I can start realistically considering a chance to advance. I know it's still very early, but week 10 maybe, somewhere around there?
When should I start looking at my teams and seeing what my likelihood of advancing is? Have 3 teams in 1st currently in the puppy but sf on Underdog. Obviously I've been looking at them, but not sure when I can start realistically considering a chance to advance. I know it's still very early, but week 10 maybe, somewhere around there?
It’s really tough to say. 50-100 over 3rd+ with a couple weeks to go is a good spot. Week 10 is probably too early, but you’re also feeling good if you’re still in 1st by then.
I think I'm done drafting guys coming off of injury in best ball. The timelines constantly change, the injuries are underreported, they usually need at least 1 season before returning to form, etc. I feel like we'll be +ev in the long run fading the entire injury group, even if guys occasionally perform well.
I'm interested to see how Godwin looks.
Agree
Even someone like Diggs who is playing but not producing is annoying and wasn't a good pick, so far at least.
Rashee is an interesting case. It appeared he was going to be healthy to start week 1 but who really knows? He's also younger.
Mostly directionally accurate so far. There were some shifts, but most teams are still in the same general area after another week.
12-team PPR
I give: JJ
I get: Barkley
Lost a bunch of RBs. WR depth isn't great after this, but much better than the RB options that I have.
Neither one has produced much so far, but cautious about the PHI run game.
Would you do this?
12-team PPR
I give: JJ
I get: Barkley
Lost a bunch of RBs. WR depth isn't great after this, but much better than the RB options that I have.
Neither one has produced much so far, but cautious about the PHI run game.
Would you do this?
I would do this, especially if you lost several RBs. Barkley has been producing fine and his situation has not changed much. I faded JJ in drafts bc the QB situation was a concern for me going into the season and still is.
Playing 3 BRs this week
I’m just clicking buttons. Does anybody know the actual strategy for these?
My gut feeling is:
1. Skinny stack is preferable, but Giga stacking can work
2. Scroll down on 1-2 picks for low owned guys
Other than that maybe use ADP values to get unique and play the best players? I can’t think of anything else haha
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I think you're mostly on the right track.
Skinny stack is definitely the most preferable, but you can play almost any QB naked and get away with it. It feels counterintuitive to best ball. You're trying to be perfect in BR given field size. And the more spread out an offense is the more viable the QB is unstacked, and obviously the rushing QBs unstacked is almost always going to be +ev and is possibly more optimal. Cost is more of a consideration with them, as you see with both Josh/Lamar with 2nd round ADPs this week.
I also like adding a bring back with an unstacked QB. An example would be Mahomes with Andrews instead of Kelce this week.
You mostly want to avoid giga stacking in BRs because of that fact. Giga stacking is better in the smaller field contests, since you don't have to be perfect.
You do want to scroll down for low owned guys. ADP value and scroll downs are the best way to get unique.
Most drafters stay within ADP for the first 3 rounds, so that lessens the amount of combos you have to worry about. My goal is to vary how I'm building around the top 18 or so players. I track my combos as I draft.
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I've mostly been playing the Wildcat. It's not as big as the BR but still a large field contest, so the same theory applies. Here are the winners from the first 3 weeks in the Wildcat.
Scroll down Egbuka and Fields, unstacked Fields, 3 pick value on CMC, not even a big score from TE.
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Stacked Goff/ARSB won a lot of contests in week 2. Goff was the low owned piece. Everything else is pretty straight-forward. Low score from TE again. Double stack technically wins, but it wasn't necessary. They nailed all 3 WRs who smashed.
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This lineup was duped, so they split 1st/2nd. Hurts/AJB stack with semi-low owned AJB. Ferg also not 100% drafted, but Henry would have been optimal. Henry was 4% drafted. Henry won other contests.
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My goal has been to try to vary my QB/TE combos and then let the rest fall into place with high projection, high volume RBs/WRs. Hitting on the highest scoring QB/TE can really help you separate and not have to be perfect elsewhere.
I'd say the scroll down positional ranking would be QB > TE > WR > RB.
Also, RB in the flex is like 90% optimal.
The Badge Bros and Pete both put out a lot of weekly content, so I'd suggest checking out their shows. They also put together a Masterclass. It's $120, but they might be running a promo for 10-20% off. I bought it before the season, and it has a lot of really good info.
One other thing I forgot to mention is that you either save the draft board or notate which players were drafted at the respective position when a player might not play. You have Daniels on your third team and Adams on your first, so it's possible you'll need to swap them out.
Unfortunately, UD only has mass swap available, where you can't designate swap per lineup and it's only based on your personal rankings (or ADP if you don't add swap rankings) across all lineups where a swap is needed. It's something you really have to think about if you're firing volume.
Pete, Nez, and Jon have a weekly show on Fridays where they primarily focus on the BRs for the week. It's worth a watch. It'll start at 3 pm eastern.
And as I hit post, Daniels is listed as out for the week haha.
He didn’t even need to be perfect.
Had the nuts in 5% drafted Henry, Hurts/Davante bring back, uncorrelated Nico, and the top 2 scoring RBs on the slate.
With that said, the lineup could have been better with AJB over either Nico/Davante or DeVonta over Davante.
