2025 MLB Season Thread

Aaron Judge will run away with the MVP again imo. Yeah 60 homeruns from a catcher is pretty cool, but there is no shame in finishing 2nd to the best right-handed hitter of all-time. At this point it's undeniable when talking peaks. Here's what Aaron Judge did in 2025:

Became just the 3rd player to hit at least 50 homeruns and win a batting title. Last guy to do it was some guy named Mickey Mantle.

Led the majors with a .457 OBP, when no one else was even above .400. That is an insane gap between Judge and the field, the biggest since Barry Bonds.

Posted at least 10 WAR for the 3rd time in 4 years.

Posted a wRC+ of at least 200 for the 3rd time in 4 years. Just how impressive is that? Let me show you the all-time leaderboard for most seasons with a wRC+ of at least 200 (min 500 PA):

9 Babe Ruth
6 Ted Williams
4 Barry Bonds
3 Aaron Judge

That is the company Aaron Judge is in. Enjoy him now because we really may not see a better hitter in the next 50 years.

.205/.318/.450

No, his post season sample is so large that it really says something. Not sure what. Maybe he tended to get fatigued at the end of seasons. Or maybe tried to do too much or felt higher expectations. But it's pretty hard to ever go against the bigger numbers. You always expected his numbers to come back to where they should be but they didnt.

I don't think Raleigh for MVP is a bad take. But yeah Judge is a monster. I wonder how many 50 homer seasons he'll end up with. I wonder what the odds are of 4, 5, 6, etc.

Well 4+ is 100% because he's already at 4.

He's the 4th guy ever with 4 50+ HR seasons. Of the other 3, 2 took massive amounts of steroids, and the other is Babe Ruth.

I think Aaron Judge has more batting titles in him too. Which is a crazy thing to say about a guy who's always had A+ power but used to strike out a lot.

But you look at the other 3 guys who hit 50+ HR this year (Raleigh, Schwarber, Ohtani), and all of them strike out way more than Judge does now. Judge is the toughest out in baseball by far.

Obviously I meant finish with 4

What is the most likely number he finishes with?

I would say something like

50% 5
35% 4
12% 6
2% 7
1% 8

Seems reasonable.

excellent job bobo

Predictions/Results:

Phillies OVER 90.5 - CORRECT
Mets OVER 90.0 - WRONG
Braves UNDER 92.0 - CORRECT
Nations UNDER 72.0 - CORRECT
Marlins OVER 63 - CORRECT
Cubs OVER 86.5 - CORRECT
Brewers OVER 82.0 - CORRECT
Reds UNDER 79.5 - WRONG
Cardinals UNDER 76.0 - WRONG
Pirates UNDER 76.5 - CORRECT
Dodgers OVER 104.5 - WRONG
Padres OVER 85.5 - CORRECT
Giants OVER 80.5 - CORRECT
Rockies UNDER 59.5 - CORRECT
Yankees UNDER 88.5 - WRONG
Orioles UNDER 88.0 - CORRECT
Blue Jays OVER 79.0 - CORRECT
Rays OVER 81.0 - WRONG
Red Sox UNDER 86.5 - WRONG
Guardians OVER 81.5 - CORRECT
Tigers NO BET 83.0 - PUSH
Twins OVER 80.5- WRONG
Royals UNDER 82.5 - CORRECT
White Sox UNDER 53.5 - WRONG
Astros OVER 86.5 - CORRECT
Mariners OVER 85.5 - CORRECT
Rangers UNDER 86.0 - CORRECT
Angels UNDER 71.5 - WRONG
Athletics UNDER 71.5 - WRONG

Record vs Vegas: 17-12
Division Winners Correct: 3 (Vegas: 2) (I had all other div winners in 2nd)
Playoff Teams Correct: 8 (Vegas: 6)
Last Place Teams Correct: 3 (Vegas: 4)

Sosa is an interesting comp to this. He got his 4th straight 50 homer season at age 32. He hit 49 the next year but couldn't get another 50.

McGwire had 4 straight 50's age 32-35. He absolutely mashed the next year but couldn't stay healthy. And was done. He also had 49 in his rookie year. In 2000 through 36 games McGwire had 20 home runs, 46 RBI's, with a .330/.519/.927 slash line. He was having an all time GOAT season start.

Ruth had his last 50 at age 33. He would go 46, 49, 46, the next 3 years.

So all 3 of them had a 49 homer season as their 5th best. Ruth having a 47 and two 46's are the best 6th, 7th, and 8th best seasons easily in this bunch.

Ruth also had the 154 game season.

Right, he almost certainly would've had 5 and outside chance of 6 or 7 with a 162 game schedule.

Padres/Yankees/Dodgers ML (parlay) Boosted 50% on FD

Come with McMuffin if you want to eat!

Bob Baseball model ouputs:

Tigers 50.46% Series
Cubs 58.97% Series
Yankees 63.6% Series
Dodgers 69.38% Series

Current betting markets allow for Cubs, found -120 on Caesars. Yankees, Guardians, Reds neutral EV, avoid the others.

Where are people streaming games from now that the Goat (streameast) has ceased to exist? I don't get ESPN at home.

These are projections from ESPN.

So, the Yankees have a 10% better chance of making the ALCS than the Jays.

And, if the Yankees are that dominant to have such high odds, the Red Sox must have almost no chance. Nope, they have a 26% chance of making the ALCS compared to the Jays (who are already halfway there) only having a 32% chance???? Boston has a 26% chance of beating two 94 win teams, while the Jays only have a 32% chance of beating the survivor of NYY vs BOS??

I get the fact that there are muted expectations for the Jays, but really???? Yes the Jays played way over their expected WL this year, but the regular season is over. It's not like the Jays got owned by Boston and NYY - They won the season series against BOTH of them.

Getting some rest, getting your starting pitching in line, having home field advantage, NOT having to play in the WC crapshoot, waiting to see which team you play (knowing you won the season series against both of them)....... I guess these things don't mean much.

Are the Jays that bad that being halfway to the ALCS means pretty much nothing??

Pretty sure you can sign up with FUBO and get your 1st month free. Cancel within 30 days and pay nothing.

So is ESPN accounting for a meteor strike over Seattle, and that's why they somehow don't make the ALDS?

Skubal needs to make a better throw. 1-1 game now.

Not the best throw, but he was put in a terrible situation and honestly the second baseman should've probably fielded that ball.

Skubal has to finish this game.

13 K thru 7. Mid 90s PC. I say let him continue.

(last pitch was 101mph)

Six outs remain and the season is on the line.

Oh Greear, where art thou?

Skubal just eclipsed my personal little league record of 13 strikeouts. Good for him; I did it in 5 :P

Skubal pulled. Runner on 2nd, 2 outs in the 8th inning. The move was necessary. Yet it may be the one we look back at as "The end of an era."