Banger's 2025 Football Picks

Late add to the Friday picks - North Carolina/Cal Over 46.5

Game starts in 20 minutes

Besides the Chiefs -11.5 early bird, also want to play Chargers -2.5 in the late window

In the SNF game, are the Falcons actually improving or is it a mirage? I'm leaning to the latter and will put a small wager on the Niners -1.5 which feels like a small value at home, and the Saleh defense should be able to confuse Penix into some TOs given his inability to make secondary reads

4-3 in my last 7 after a rough weekend the previous one. Saleh's defense for the Niners did exactly what I thought, the book on Penix is gathering lots of supporting evidence that he can't make secondary reads. The Niners secondary seemed to know where his first read was all night and their D-line also seemed to know exactly where to rush. Penix has an arm but has a long way to go in terms of mental development, not seeing the game very well at this point.

Lions -6 and Texans +3.5 tonight

Analysis: The Lions haven't lost back to back in forever and I really think the Chiefs game was something of a fluke. While they have to be worried about the Bucs stout defensive front, if Goff gets any amount of time he ought to go off. Laporta ought to have a huge game. The Bucs offense has been a machine despite many injuries, and while Baker should pass for a lot of yards I think they are overdue to struggle somewhat with Evans and Egubka banged up. I'll say Lions win something like 33-20.

The Seahawks have been poor at home and the Texans defense travels well. It should be a very close game and with the total set at 41 we should be in for something of a low scoring grind. Take the points.

NBA OPENING NIGHT

BEST BETS: Rockets +6.5 and Warriors -2.5

The Rockets are a legit title contender, have to see how the loss of Fred Van Vleet affects things down the road, but there is plenty of talent here. OKC will not quite come out of the gate the way they ended last season. Jalen Williams is out and I expect a close game.

If the Warriors can keep their aging vets upright they have a really intriguing roster with some good young talent. The Lakers will score a lot and will give up a lot, you may feel more comfortable with the Over but I tend to stay away from totals early in the season and they seem to be set too high. Maybe a contrarian case for the Under.

NBA TUESDAY: 2-0

Off to a great start in hoops!

WEDNESDAY BEST BETS: Knicks ML, Hornets -5.5, Pistons -4.5, Kings/Suns Over 228.5

Why is Cleveland favored at NY? No Darius Garland or Strus. Money line as the Knicks win outright.

The Hornets have amassed a lot of talent and should improve by about 10-12 wins this year. They take on a super young Nets squad that will be openly tanking this year.

The Bulls just are not very good, other than Giddey, and the Pistons will be on a mission all season. That starts tonight with an easy W.

Total of the Night: Kings Suns is a matchup of two bad defenses, although I'd prefer this number to be around 224-225 I still think it sneaks over.

Knicks are up to +3.5 for tonight's game due to Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson being out, and now KAT has been downgraded to doubtful. I am cancelling my ML pick but still feel like NY will be very competitive here and might make a small play on them taking the points. Still on Hornets, Pistons, and Kings/Suns Over.

Now 4-1 in NBA so far, 5-1 if you count the Knicks. I did play them and won the ML, but if not for that feint about KAT being doubtful would've probably invested more. I left tonight's games alone and with both games going to OT I'm glad. I also liked the Chargers but not enough to play them, missed opportunity as they were never threatened by the Vikings who look terrible on both sides of the ball all of a sudden.

One NBA play for Friday - Toronto Raptors -1.5 - way too many scoring options for the Bucks to defend here.

Saturday CFB Early Bird - Rutgers/Purdue Over 58.5
Sunday NFL Early Bird - Houston Texans -1.5

CFB Best Bets

Rutgers/Purdue Over 58.5 - two terrible defenses, we do have the Purdue backup QB likely starting but still enough weapons to drop 30. Rutgers as well.
Arkansas -2.5 - new life under Petrino as they've been playing pretty well, especially offensively, even in defeat
LSU ML - getting +2.5 but better odds taking them straight, at night in the Bayou - A&M 2nd straight road game after a grueling stretch leads them to loss #1
Memphis +6 - great matchup with South Florida, Memphis got caught looking ahead last week vs UAB but will come to play here

Two SEC "leans" - Kentucky +8.5 vs Tenn and Vandy -3 vs Mizzou

Looks like 2-4 on Saturday

Sunday NFL Best Bet: Giants/Eagles Over 43.5 - this is as much about the defenses as it is the offenses. I think Saquon has something of a breakout game, and for the Giants the Dart/Skatt combo will do enough to easily push this over the number.

Also Saints +3.5 - NO continues to play hard for Kellen Moore and TB's injuries and energy expended throughout their recent run are taking a toll. Wouldn't be surprised to see NO win outright.

No real opinion on the SNF game but I guess I'd play the Packers if I had to pick.

MNF BEST BET - REDSKINS/CHIEFS UNDER 48
NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR

A lot to unpack here - Jayden Daniels is out, and the best thing already about the WASH offense is their NFL #2 rush offense. On the other side of the ball, KC does have a good rush defense but not nearly as stout as their 2nd ranked pass defense. The KC offense will have their choice of weapons vs a leaky WASH defense, but this feels like a great spot for the Chiefs to finally get their rushing attack on track. Expect more Brashard Smith out of the backfield. Game script for WASH is to drain the clock while moving the ball slowly up the field with Bill and Co, and hope its defense can bow up long enough to keep it close going to the 4th quarter. But even if KC gets a big lead, they will be compelled to drain the clock in the 2nd half and lower the number of possessions for both teams. One last thing, Sunday's results really have nothing to do with tonight's game, but Overs had a great Sunday, 10-2 to the Over the total side. The Under is due to hit and I'm sure the books would greatly appreciate it as well wink wink. I am very confident in this play.

SMASHED the Under on MNF by two TDs, now 2-0 on "Play of the Year" picks. Nailed the game script. Great spot to end up big for the weekend.

Tuesday CFB Best Bet - Kennesaw St -10

Another winner tonight with Kennesaw St.

Saturday CFB Early Bird - Illinois -12.5
Sunday NFL Early Bird - Lions -8.5

Undefeated on early bird picks so far this year

Thursday CFB Best Bet: Coastal Carolina +6.5

NFL game I only have a very small lean to the Under, other than that I'm not biting. The Ravens could very well go in to Miami and whoop up and cover the very large 7.5 road spread, but given the fact that Miami somehow beat Atlanta by 24, on the road, this line smells...I still think the Dolphins stink and that the Ravens are on their way back but I'm not touching that.

CFB Total of the Year coming on Saturday, will post on Friday

4 in a row and 5 of the last 6 in the winner's column, Coastal Carolina wins outright by 17!

Friday CFB Best Bet: Brown +12.5 (at Penn)
The Brown Bears have a really good passing attack, and Penn's running game is struggling. This Ivy League game line is based more on preseason projections than current reality. This one could very well go down to the wire and taking almost two TDs is the way to go.

Bonus NBA pick: Chicago Bulls +4.5 (vs the Knicks)
The run and fun Bulls will give the plodding and already banged up Knicks all they can handle on Friday night.

I promised my College Total of the Year a little early - it is USC/Nebraska Over 60.5
This was at 58.5 last night so momentum is building to the upside. Don't be fooled by Nebraska's strong defensive rating, that was padded vs some cupcakes and really bad teams. USC will drop at least 35, the question is can Nebraska get to 30+. I think they can and in fact might score enough to win a game that ends something like 41-38.

2-0 so far on Plays of the Year
College Side of the Year: North Texas over Army
NFL Total of the Year: Chiefs/Redskins Under this past Monday night
I fully expect these to be 3-0 after Saturday

2-0 on Friday, 7-1 in my last 8 picks.

Saturday Best Bets
CFB: USC/Nebraska Over 60.5 - College Total of the Year

Others - Illinois -12.5, Texas -3, Army +1.5, Maryland +21.5, Wake Forest +10.5

World Series Game 7 - I would say Dodgers but the Blue Jays feel like they have destiny on their side - not betting it but should be a great finale

I have Texas also.

Nice! Easy winner.

Army pissing me off. Have a 7 pt lead and go for it at their own 22 with 2 minutes left, fail and basically gift wrap a tying TD for Air Force who almost never drives a long field there. Still may cover but I don't understand why some coaches feel the need to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Correction, Texas gives up 21 in the 4th quarter for a push. Always making the easy seem difficult this year. Army covers.

I want to point out my CFB early bird this week was Illinois, which covered with ease in a 35-13 win. My early birds are undefeated this year and tomorrow's is the Detroit Lions -8.5. All good things like wagering win streaks come to an end but I see no reason why this doesn't hit also.

Saturday started off great and ends with a whimper. Will update officially tomorrow night.

NFL Sunday Best Bet: Detroit Lions -8.5
Two teams going in vastly different directions. There is no indication that the Vikes can hold the Lions below 30 pts and likewise no sign that the Vikes themselves will be able to put together a consistent and coherent offensive gameplan with McCarthy back under center for the first time in a while. The Lions look like a Super Bowl team.

Other Picks: Steelers +3.5 - this should be a barnburner with the Colts - also Giants +2.5, well go ahead and give me the Giants outright on the ML.

On the biggest game of the day, I only offer a lean to Buffalo getting +2, and maybe this one stays under 52.5 even though most people think it will be a Mahomes/Allen shootout.

Had a small win streak, but that sort of fizzled out last weekend. It wasn't horrible but I expect better by this point of the season. Feel locked in a just a few picks this weekend.

CFB Saturday Best Bets: Texas A&M/Mizzou Over 48.5, Alabama -10.5, Oregon St -20.5

A&M/Mizzou the defenses look good on paper but will give way in what should be a back and forth game. LSU has no shot in Tuscaloosa, if they haven't given up on the season yet they will by late 3rd quarter. And once again we pick on hapless Sam Houston St, the Beavs are licking their chops at the thought of getting to run it up on someone, and are playing a little better lately.

NFL Best Bets: Bills -9.5, Bucs -2.5, 49ers +5, Chargers -2.5

Don't overthink it. The Bills are rolling and the Fins are godawful. Picking vs Drake Maye right now is a choice but coming off the bye week I think the Bucs will put up enough points in this spot, and the Pats have not had a real tough schedule so far. I think the Rams are really good but you're giving me an overachieving and well coached Niners 5 points at home? I accept. Finally, the Steelers are being really bipolar lately, feels like their week to lay an egg, and the Chargers seem to be getting stronger by the week.

Disappointing 3-4 weekend, but like the Monday Night Best Bet - Eagles/Packers Under 45.5

Lots at play here, first let's get the anecdotal, "it's due" factor out of the way. Tons of overs on Sunday, the books will be desperate for an under here. Besides that however, I do believe both squads will try to play ball control with several very long, time-consuming drives. Also, the defenses are built to take away the other team's strengths. I am fading Saquon in any props for that reason, and the loss of Tucker Kraft is going to have a major negative effect.

Another easy primetime NFL winner tonight with the Under.

Tuesday CBB Best Bet: Kentucky +3.5 (at Louisville)
I'm not sure it all comes together this early, but I am sure that the Wildcats have more firepower than the Cardinals. Taking the points here without hesitation.

Wednesday MACtion CFB Best Bet: Buffalo Bulls ML

They're getting +1.5 but I'll take them with better odds to win outright. Buffalo has frustrated me at times this year with their inconsistency, but strangely that's all happened at home. On the road they're 3-0 in conference and the only road loss was a cover at Minnesota to start the year.

Saturday CFB Early Bird - Louisiana Tech +7.5
Sunday NFL Early Bird - Bengals +5.5