PAHWM: QJs in wonderland

Villain arrived at this spot by raising first in, *getting everyone else to fold to us*, then having us call out of the BB, and getting this exact flop.

We can overfold here and there is virtually no way to be exploited by people seeing us do this.

IIRC this game is 6-3-1 raked?

Everyone is making this too complicated. V has a strong hand, or he doesn't. If he's strong, we don't want to raise because we will get blown off our equity too often. If he isn't strong, we don't want him to fold. If he has air, we're ahead very comfortably, if he has something like KK we can get him to fold later.

Easy call. The bet is big for the pot, but not the game.

I dont know if any updates have made it past the preflop decision on how to play QJs, but I see some heated opinions on who's bad and who's not regarding whether you can play this. Just remember; set expectations. It's highly unlikely you're going to stack a competent player from out of position with literally anything other than a pure cooler nuts vs 2nd nuts on any given flop texture where ranges remaing undefined to showdown. This isnt going to be one of those spots like vs a fish IP where you semi bluff flop, pick up backdoor equity and get there on the river and he pays you off with TPMK. Or flopping two pair and 'coolering' AA. This is going to be a straight bingo endeavor winning as much EV as we deserve. So like, chill. Dont go haywire cuz muh suited connectors!

The reason why you are still fighting about this hand is because 1) Banana drives everyone crazy and 2) QTs is on the margins and makes little profit when hero plays it against a good V. QTs makes money when opponents make big mistakes over folding or calling when behind. So whatever, fold, call, or 3bet.

I agree that if you favor call or 3bet, you are a better player than I even though you make almost no money in this hand against this V.

AP call.

Banana, what’s your opinion about how you played the hand? Keep the hand histories with reads coming.

Just fyi it’s QJ suited

So did you flat call and what was the turn? We need more material to say how terrible other posters are.

Still folding vs this V. Maybe I will call QJs here when my bankroll gets to 30 buyins.

Lol, wut? We're not going to find any other profitable opportunities in a typical LLSNL game?

We can literally *never* play a single HU OOP hand to a solid raiser without a top 5% premium and we'll do perfectly fine. I've told this story before, but there's a young pro (top 3 in pool) who's been playing in our smallish room (typically 3 - 5 tables going at times when I play) for the past ~7 years, and I can count on one finger the number of times I've played HU OOP to him as the raiser (I flatted QQ attempting to bring in a fish limper).

FWIW, I don't think this is the most egregious flat in the history of poker preflop. But it is highly unlikely to be profitable for anyone other than the top 1%ers, imo. I would also guess one of the most profitable situations in poker is being HU in position with initiative, so I'll let you decide who is going to be the only possible person making a profit here long term in a raked pot with no dead money.

GknowswheremoneyismadeinpokerG

this is kind of nitpicky but is important, at least theoretically. c/r sizing is too big when he is this polar. think similar to how 4b sizing bvb is much smaller than anywhere else oop. overwhelming preference for x minraise in solver fwiw. the minraise just attacks all of his garbage and he isn't supposed to really have medium stregnth hands with this sizing (i think this will be a mistake he makes here fwiw but i not really sure to what extent). your sizing would make more sense if he used like 1/3 pot and we could think he conceivably has a3 / at / 2nd pair type medium stregnth hands where there's a need / incentive to pressure w larger sizings.

i guess bet and call it off now. he is supposed to be indifferent with AJ but i really doubt people fold that

flop as oop

vs b33 as oop

probably part of it is that its easier to get all in when he overbets flop without using large sizing but i also think theres supposed to be no middle of his range to attack

last one (still vs b33)

if i get time later id like to at what we do if he is too depolar for this size (am sure we go nuts on the turn if he xs back but unsure how to respond to cbet if we think he does this w like AQ+) and also how him having 2 sizes affects things. w that said a million things to look at and will probably not get to it lol. this would be an interesting one to see his hand at showdown and see if this is an error of understanding / nuance, or if this is an actual imbalance you can go after (i would guess this).

Way too much unnecesary info in OP.

Call>3b, obviously you did not fold.

Flop is an easy check call.

I don't normally c/r an overbet, much less so for more than 4x, but kind of appreciate your courage.

So, I almost never get to the turn this way, but as played, you set about the perfect SPR for an overbet jam, and you also picked some more equity (gutshot), so just go for it and shove.

Btw: I am surprised how often the solver folds otf (thanks @submersible for the sims)

What are you defining as "middle of range?" Anything below AJ? Because I can see this V bet/calling with things like Ax/KK/QQ. Or maybe something like TT-?

Thanks.

Yeah, I would x/c the flop, but would shove the turn as played. You are 25% against AA and 30% against AK. You are ahead of most flush draws he can have.

marginal is going to depend on the exact board but basically anything we aren't thrilled to get alot of money in (id guess this would be beat value but im sure raiseannounced will come in w some kind of equity threshold) so are going to play some form of mdf with. (here those hands would be Ax which suffer immensely vs narrowing v's range and getting raised)

i think its wishful thinking to expect the described villain to not understand implications of bet sizing / ranges / polarization - this is re him having qq or a3 here

i think people are having trouble conceptualizing a polarized range and have just decided to play vs the nuts. think also ppl dont really think in terms of strategy / ranges which works vs recs but doesn't work as well vs regs. i admit raising the flop isn't the most intuitive play of all time but i do think this hand is good ex of value of study / solvering

fwiw this is the output if i lock ep to cbetting every AQ+ / gutter / set / 2p+ / bop (this still checks all of the ax / underpairs ) and his cbet freq goes from 20 -> 60.

this is the turn on a brick 6 if oop plays the described always cbetting AQ+ and every gutter (the gutters will not make a difference). the biggest issue he will face is a9 / at become value hands for oop since hes capped to an extreme degree. this is just a preflop configuration / board where oop is going to have good hands alot along with not much bloat and he really needs to respect that. also the good hands really do not 3b much for oop at all here bb vs ep

im also not really convinced anyones default size on this board is > pot w aa (which makes jack by far our best blocker to show aggression with)

final point that everyone is absolutely enthralled by im sure

if i change the node lock to all of the gutters / 2p+ but just change it to him mixing bet and check with AQ / AK and v occasionally checking a5, this is the output

so my conclusion from that would be that the larger check raise size is really geared towards attacking his top pair type hands which have a very comfy continue vs minraise but are put into indifference vs the bigger size. if they dont exist (they aren't *supposed* to when he goes big but this stuff is confusing and theres a ton of nuance and we cant even agree on pre ranges in this spot 24+ hours after the thread is posted lol) in the range then the bigger x/r really doesnt do much - he just have nuts or air when he takes this size and your size is inappropriately attacking his range when both players have similarish nutted hands. dunno if thats confusing or even right, i am awful at articulating things

edit: although now ive confused myself more when i make him cbet his weak ax too (all of which

I was honestly surprised to see the solver recommend it. Thought I was on an island there, lol...though it does recommend a 2/2.3X raise which I didn't think of. And its reasons make more sense than my, "this is a range bet, a ludicrously large range bet, SPR with a call is still high, we're OOP, we want to build a pot should we hit, our equity plummets on a brick, and we can(?) have AceX containing combos too." If not JJ/AA. Kind of curious what V thinks of Banana's overcall in the blinds range, and whether it includes KQ.

Does/do solvers start at that given point when analyzing say, flop action? I.e., V's & H's ranges are full (for whichever percentage of hands you give them) and aren't additionally constrained by preflop actions? So that a solver might 3! or f QJs in response to this open, but Banana just called here, isn't taken into account?

Edit: i think you covered it. My bad. Reading and learning...

solver is more or less a giant calculator. is not exactly but its close enough in practice. i used reasonably tight pre ranges intitially and then widened them a bit but realistically as long as its pretty tight pre and oop isnt pure 3betting jj and aj / maybe aq / ak it should look similarish

basically oop isnt capped (yes no aa but he have 55 / jj / aj / a5), doesnt have many hands overall, and mirrors the tpgk / tk hands, means ip can't just go for all of it and make oop call sometimes (if stacks go in oop indiff with a5 / aj - so only needs to gii like AJ+ on brick runout)

does any of this matter ingame? yes and no

When UTG cbets for more than pot, I am not sure he has many gutters. The purpose is to build the pot, not to win the 20 in the pot. I don't think his whole range is cbetting this size. So it is more likely he has a set, 2 pair, or TPTK. The problem I have with the solver analysis is you are looking at a cbetting range, and he is not using this sizing with his whole cbetting range. Even when you nodelock, it isn't tight enough, and you just include a range of hands, not weight them.

You know it is likely he has a strong range, so flat call and you can exploit somewhat that he is playing somewhat face up. Don't raise to semibluff and try to get him to fold when you know he is probably strong.

Once you pick up the gutter, then shoving the turn may be better than other options, as you have FE and equity if called, and it is difficult if you check and he bets. However, I don't think he has that much less than 2-pair that overbets and calls the big flop raise. I explained before why it is unlikely he has flush draws. Maybe you can get him to fold AK or A5s.

Please stick to responding to my arguments, and don't insult me again.