PAHWM: QJs in wonderland

Is our plan to always flop a pair + flush draw + backdoor straight draw so we can continue to a 1.5 PSB flop bet OOP? Cuz otherwise we're getting owned on the vast majority of flops, no?

(again, not saying preflop is horrible... just saying it's unlikely to actually be profitable)

GcluelesspokeriseasywhenyoufloptheworldnoobG

The real issue here is trusting an unreliable narrator. This is why I hate it when people describe an opponent because it's usually way off base. Even worse when they describe themselves from opponents POV. Unless someone is a stone cold maniac not a whole lot else matters. Even nits will get out of line sometimes.

If you didn't make a gutshot on the turn, it would have been hard to continue after the x/r. It looks on the turn like he has a big made hand. You could wind up checking and getting bluffed off your hand on the river.

I agree with the flat call pre.

His $30 c-bet into a $20 pot is concerning. When I see opponents do this, I tend to expect them to continue betting big on brick cards, and slow down on draw-completing cards, such that the implied odds value of our draw goes down a lot.

I don't think I'd fold. There's no reason to raise. So by process of elimination it's just a call. If we make our flush on the turn I'd probably donk out, expecting him to check back.

Looking a little tense could be the result of him trying not to look too strong after he pots it as a c-bet. I wouldn't want to read too much into that sort of subtle body language.

I think just as a general heuristic we aren't supposed to x/r nearly as often over bigger bets, and maybe not ever. To do so, I'd think we'd need to be super polar, and our hand seems a little too in between here.

When he sits up and adjusts his chair before calling, that is body language I'd pay some attention to. It's "go to war" body language. In sales, we'd call it a buying signal. In poker, I'd interpret it as him being invested, and I wouldn't be putting more money in unless we drill the turn.

As played, we didn't drill the turn, so I either check fold or jam and pray. Preference for check fold, since I believe he's nutted and we have no fold equity.

Huh. So much for thinking he was nutted.

Regardless, I think the takeaway here is that he was polar and we ended up bluffing him with the best hand, thereby costing us value. If the turn goes check check and we river the flush, we stack him. If the river is a brick we can bluff catch. The only way we lose this is if we check turn, he blasts off, and we fold, but most opponents aren't going to bet big on the turn with a draw after getting x/r'd on the flop.

Seems like another unnecessarily high variance line you've taken here. I get anxious just reading about your hands. Can only imagine the turmoil going on in your own head in game.

Entertaining as always, Banana. Please don't ever change.

Also, agree with anyone who says OP's reads can muddy the water. I've gotten in the habit of paying more attention to details about how his opponents played prior hands than the more subjective descriptions given.

i dont really understand why him cbetting 9h8h makes him bad at poker

It's not the hand that suggests he's bad it's the sizing. It looks to be largely fear motivated which is indicative of someone who cant navigate the game tree. This guy wants easy decisions. Then he shows the loser which is also a hallmark shitreg move. He's an ego player and they're always bad.

seems like an awful lot of projection

I don't think the cbet size is particularly bad. He is UTG versus BB, so he is representing a big made hand. Some people here were saying to fold a combo draw which had him crushed to the big cbet. He should get a lot of folds on the flop or turn versus BB's range.

Villain should maybe fold to the big checkraise, since hero usually has a big made hand or a higher flush draw, maybe with a pair or straight draw. Hard to fold a draw though. Villain has to fold the turn. Maybe you can fault him for showing.

It's possible that if 98hh isn't usually in his utg open range, him showing the hand is the only way to get his $132 worth of advertising out there, for you and the other players at the table (and us reading along) who thought he had a tight range...

The thing about overbetting ace high flops is you do it when you have something like AK because you know nobody will ever in a million years fold their ace to it, so it's just going for max value. I cant even think of another time to do it, so the fact he's doing it as a bluff is pretty bad. Like sure he folds out TT or whatever but you can get that hand to fold by the river anyway so blindly going for it on the flop before you have any real information on opponents range is just a punt.

The overbet on an ace-high flop UTG versus BB is kind of weird, because BB is going to be folding the flop or turn a lot anyway. A decent player in the BB may fold an ace to the overbet or a following big turn bet.

My thoughts too. Especially if many of those overcalling aces are suited aces hoping to hit their suit/2p. (And balancing PPs similarly overcalling.)

Which is why I was asking submersible what kind of hands were populating the bluffy lobe of the polarized range he mentioned. I thought KK/QQ/TT-77 could do this too. Beats the, "Oh no, a flopped ace!", reaction and a x-back. Take advantage of V's superior range. V's supposed to be skilled, per the read. SB's probably viewed as competent, has a fold button, why not win the hand now?

No idea why V called the x-raise. Yeah, Banana doesn't have AA/JJ/AJ, but jeez, the rest of the combo draws and lower set still beat you. Per your comment upthread, I'd prefer a 3! shove to the call V ended up doing.

You say that but look at how many posters wanted to fold to it?

It was $30 into $25 no? (I don’t understand withdrawing rake before the flop although maybe it’s a thing?)

Of course our plan is to flop well…isn’t it always? And imo it’s a hand that flops really well and can win big pots. We of course have to be careful about proceeding with 1 pair and dominated hands and I totally understand that position is a big thing but if we aspire to be good poker players we can’t always nut peddle from the button

The thing about betting big on A high flops is that people call flop and then check fold turn a ton with their Ax.

If your goal with a bluff is to get people to fold right now, you're doing it wrong. There's no world where H is folding Ax on the flop, but there are a lot of turns where H might fold as large any Ax that is just one pair. So with a bluff, getting called OTF and then fold on turn or river is good.

Remember, your advice was to call flop and fold to another bet OTT. So V outplayed you and got your better hand to fold with his line. Unfortunately for him, he was playing a stuck Banana.

I love when people criticize the play of someone who beat them. If you are only over betting with strong hands, then you are easily exploitable and people can start making disrespectful folds like A3 on this flop.

V probably over bet because:

1. The flop was great for his range.
2. He has the nut advantage.
3. There's a ton of draws to get value from with strong hands.
4. There's a ton of moderate made hands that can be pressured to fold by the river.

So an over bet with a polarized range is a good strategy to use on this flop, with opportunities to bluff, and if V has thick value, he just stacked Banana.

Calling the x/r is arguably an error, mostly because it was large. I think shove or fold might both be superior. Though probably not huge EV loss because I think H has to slow down some turns. I'd be curious to see the solve for Vs response to a large x/r. I bet 98hh is mixing, but could be wrong.

With the actual hands, if hero flat called the flop, hero would probably stack villain if the flush hit and there is a good chance villain would bluff hero off a pair unimproved.

Villain was probably shocked by the flop x/r, as it doesn't make sense with many hands. Villain can definitely be overbetting AA or JJ. Hero is probably flat calling AJ from the BB and might flat call JJ.

Villain's call of the big x/r is really bad, as he isn't getting that good price to draw. Hero can have a set, so a flush may not be good if the board pairs. It is a disaster if hero has a combo draw like he had, as villain's hand has low equity and villain will get stacked if he hits the flush. Maybe with Banana's image, he somehow has less than a big made hand or combo draw, but villain should let him have the fairly small pot.

Villain absolutely can't 3! shove 9h8h here. He might sometimes take the pot, but he is crushed by a set, 2-pair, or a combo draw.

Not sure if hero is calling a 3! shove on the flop with QhJh. I didn't like the raise partly because you don't know what to do to a 3!.

Folding faceup is godawful bad.

godawful is a strong word. i think his line is ok and i am unsure what he loses by showing the table he folds this hand to a turn overbet lol

his line maybe leaked ~1$ (.33bb) vs equilibrium post and he showed that he folded what would be an insane torch to call the turn. just dont really understand what information he is giving away that would rate this horrific

imo the people in the thread saying hes a losing player for choosing this sizing or that hes a fish bc of the hand are delusional.

think its an alright bluff candidate. solver seems to shy away from the lower fd's here w the beg sizing which i think makes sense but the ev isnt drastically different between bet and check. its just really high ev board for ep here. big issue is you may filter oop down ot strong hands / higher fds which is not ideal when u have a 9 hi fd. i think something thats easy to overlook is how much ev there is for ip when he checks back the flop. people are just uncomfortable playing without initiative particularly with 0 sdv draws so they tend to always bet them otf (as ip).

i would not expect described villain to really ever bet qq-kk for this sizing

Every player I’ve ever seen do it is either young hotshot wannabe trying way too hard to be flashy & tricky, or bitter old timer moaning “see, I never win”. I’ve never seen anyone I’d consider a top player in the room do it. JMHO