NCAA Football 2025

Only one loss. Unique situation although Killer couldn’t get out of Cincy fast enough.

I also think that along with the usual greed/narcissism/junkie restlessness, things must’ve gone way off the rails behind the scenes quickly between Lane and the administration, because he certainly seemed to have settled into the perfect spot. Over the next 10-15 years the money would be the same and NIL wouldn’t seem to be a problem especially if they made a deep run in January.

In the Pitt games they didn't try to hide the garbage points. Pitt called timeout vs ND with .02 left to get to 15. Miami forced it in with about .40 left.

Pitt also called timeout vs Miami while Mia had the ball allowing Miami to score and ND was throwing the ball with 2 minutes left against Pitt as well, they couldn’t get the first down.

ND did pull all the starters against Stanford. I thought they would try to pad Love’s heisman stats.

It’s incredibly dumb if margin of victory against common opponents plays into the ND vs Mia debate. Each team won convincingly against the common opponents. Who cares if it was by 17 pts or 33 pts?

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They claim to cap margin of victory at 21 I think.

Also they care more about some sort of stats like yards gained and allowed compared to average.

The biggest thing they seem to not care about this year is good wins? Bama being behind notre dame seems a bit ridiculous to me. The rest seems ok, though.

Teams 9-13 are all kind of the same, and even team 8 and 14 are sorta in that group.

I agree that I would certainly have Alabama > ND, but I value resume more than power

Look at their game logs
offense

defense

FSU, Tennessee, Mizzou (tie), South Carolina and Auburn outgained them

FSU, Georgia, Missouri, and Auburn had more YPP than them

They were deservedly beaten by FSU, should not have lost to OU, but probably should've lost 2 games to Tenn/MizzouUSCe and Auburn.

This looks a lot more like a 9-3 team that got a little lucky and finished 10-2 against a pretty tough schedule

ND blew the doors off it's 9 overmatched opponents, and then went 1-2 against the three good teams they played. Two of the losses were pure coinflips, and then the win against USC was probably 60/40 to be a win. But their slate was much easier

Feels like Alabama is getting overly punished for losing to FSU early (a team that is much better than their record indicates) while ND is getting a pass for losing to Miami early in the h2h matchup

The more I look at it, the more I think that:
Bama beats UGA
TT beats BYU by a lot

leads to Miami > ND

Bama beats UGA, BYU beats TT by a little, I also think ND gets left out with UGA and TT both staying above them

UGA beats Bama, BYU beats TT by a little, who drops out? Bama or ND? I assume Bama

I greatly value resume over power. Just seed based on Vegas lines if we are trying to get the 12 best teams. There shouldn’t be auto bids if that’s what the goal is. Instead we have this weird hybrid where the committee says it wants to pick the 12 best teams but we give auto bids to reward season accomplishments and we think 12-14 people in a room are going to pick the best teams more accurately than a business that is taking on most of the public with millions of $ on the line every day.

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I do think there is merit to not just organizing all the 10-2 teams by who has a slightly better resume.

Personally I think notre dame only path to missing playoff is byu and bama both winning. I vaguely recall committee chair saying rankings were set in stone for teams not playing last year, but then again who knows if that would even be consistent for this year.

Only slight hesitation on notre dame is last week their resume was probably like 11th and this week it's probably more like 15th, and possibly the worst of all the bubble teams.

I agree. I have a hard time seeing the committee reverse their rhetoric from the past 4 weeks when none of the bubble teams lost.

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Who needs Vegas? Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon and top 9 SEC teams. Boom, there you go. Or expand it to 16 so four more SEC teams can get in.

/Finebaum'd

The committee rankings came out on 11/4, Miami had just lost @ SMU and had also lost 2 of 3. Notre Dame was 6-2, and their losses were in the back mirror. So it makes sense ND was ranked much higher then.

If you were to re-rank from scratch now, Miami has done a lot in the 4 weeks since to scrub that impression. ND hasn't done anything wrong, but the wins mean more for Miami since Miami had higher highs and lower lows.

I just think the resumes are so close now that Miami has to be ahead.

Also, why are we taking it for granted that Miami will just stay behind BYU and Alabama by default?

Bama has beaten the #4, #14 and #19 teams in the last poll
Miami has beaten the #9 and #22 teams in the last poll

Bama has one better loss (OU) but one much worse loss, to 5-7 Florida State

So Bama clearly has an edge in wins, and the losses are a draw.

But Bama has had multiple close calls - they were pretty lucky to beat Auburn and South Carolina and Mizzou and UGA.

Since the first committee ranking, they have a ho-hum win over terrible LSU at home, they lost at home to Oklahoma, they beat a creampuff, and they they should've lost to Auburn.

Miami, meanwhile, has closed the gap, hammering their opponents 151-41

These teams are REALLY CLOSE. Blasting a top-25 team on the road while somebody else barely escapes a 5-7 team matters!

I'm not even sure I'm making a new or coherent point here... it's still a longshot, but I feel like the vibes are trending Miami's way.

They obviously need BYU to lose, but if Bama gets blown out they have a shot, and if Bama beats UGA and jumps ND I think they also have a shot.

This is stating the obvious, but Utah is totally cooked.

They now have 0 top-25 wins (Cincy and ASU were both ranked at the time)

Their last 2 games were an absolute miracle @ K-State where they got run on for 500 yards, and a closer than you'd like it to be win over Kansas.

They're gonna get jumped by at least Vandy if not also Texas, they are done, which is a shame.

I assume you see value on the NO here? @goldenbears

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That's a small arb you can buy no at +1120 (8.2%) and buy yes on kalshi at 89%

I think the far more likely path in is Bama > UGA and TT beats out BYU, and Miami jumps BYU then flips with ND and ND is the first one out.

Bama is 44%, BYU is like 81% to lose, so that's .36. Dont know if a BYU loss is all it takes or if it needs to be a blowout. Feels like since BYU is not currently "in," the committee won't feel bad about dropping them if they lose.

Figure Miami's a flip to jump ND in that spot, markets are in that ballpark. It's moved that way a lot since Saturday night. Sat night I think ND was like 90%, now they are like 79%

I don't feel confident guessing what the committee is gonna do, but I have 60k Miami YES and 8k ND NO contracts, and I'm probably gonna let them ride unless Miami gets up 25% or so, but I'm certainly not adding any more.

Interestingly, Miami YES is 16% while ND NO is 21-22%, so they are pricing in some chance that TEXAS is the one that vaults over Miami which imo makes no sense, but at 2-3% it's hard to say.

I am already short Vanderbilt, but I short a little more at 95... just feels like they're also at zero.

ACC will have nobody to blame but themselves for their stupid ass tiebreakers (to be clear, a lot of other conferences use the same tiebreakers)

If ND is 9 and Bama is 10 on Tuesday, then BYU bumping Bama out wouldn't be "bama getting left out for losing a CCG" because they'd be the bubble team even if they didn't play the CCG. Although they could argue that they should've been ahead of ND in the first place.

Also remember there's no rule saying they can't move CCG losers down. Last year SMU lost the CCG and stayed in, but they lost on a last second FG, and the other at-larges' resumes were pretty underwhelming.

CCGs make no sense half the time in the current format, though.

I think people would rather watch Bama, ND, Texas, Miami, Utah, Vandy, BYU, etc play their way in than watch OSU/Indiana and UGA/Bama and try to suss out the implications.

I've said before, but I think the solution to this is a scheduling czar who makes decisions for a week 12 OOC game that gets scheduled in week 9 or 10.

Go ahead and keep scheduling Texas/OSU or Michigan/OU, and if you win take it easy, and if you lose, ramp it up.

If ND is 21-22% NO, feels like that is the 19% BYU win pct plus some small (~5%?) chance Miami jumps them on tomorrow’s poll and gets in over ND when Bama and TTU win. I don think Tex or Vandy factor in at all

Using these tiebreakers with massive conferences where teams dont play half their conference is such poor foresight. Not surprised the ACC couldn’t see this coming though.

I still think the SEC will absolutely raise hell if Bama gets left out with a loss (unless UGA dogwalks them). I have to think either the CFP format or the CCG format gets significantly changed if an SEC CCG participant gets left out.

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Yeah but that means bama jumps nd all the time?

ND is currently ahead of Bama. So if nobody jumps anybody, then 19% BYU win (assuming TT does not also drop out) would bump Bama out, not ND.

However if BYU *and* Bama win, then that would presumably dump out ND

But that's only ~10% to happen

So I think the other 11% is Bama win + BYU lose (36%) and then a 1/3 chance that they decide to swap Miami and ND at that point. My gut says it's > 1/3, but that's pure guesswork.

Also, I might be overestimating the degree to which the U is still a national brand. I know it's not ND at this point, but it's also not BYU/Vanderbilt/Utah. And all the committee members are two decades older than I am, so surely the Miami heydey of the 80s, 90s and early 2000s still carries some weight with them.

And then I think the other 5% of Miami's 16% comes from BYU and Bama losing, and Bama losing so badly that Miami jumps both of them to take the last spot

Yes, I think Bama is like 90%+ in. Obviously when they beat UGA and then the majority of the time even when they lose. I think this is supported by the betting markets - you mentioned Kalshi has Bama YES at 89% correct?

So I’m thinking the vast majority of the time that BYU wins, they are bumping ND out; not Bama. I feel like I must be missing something though since you dont see it that way.

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Bama being in at 90% is congruent with BYU bumping Bama

BYU is like 18% to win. BYU can only bump Bama if Bama also loses (If Bama wins they have an auto bid)

So BYU wins (18%) * Bama loses (56%) = 10%. So, that's your 10% for Bama missing it - basically entirely due to getting bumped by BYU

Basically:
BYU is 18%, Bama is 46%

Assume UGA and Texas Tech are in 100% (if Tech loses by like 30 I suppose they could get dropped)

Between ND, Bama, BYU and Miami, two will get in and two will be left out. (Ignore Texas and Vandy for now)

BYU and Bama both win = 8.3%.
BYU and Bama MUST be in, so ND gets bumped out and Miami is also obviously out. This one is basically certain

BYU and UGA win = 9.7%, BYU is in.
If tonight's rankings are still 9. ND 10 Alabama, then Alabama gets jumped by BYU
It's possible it goes 9 ND 10 BYU 11 Bama 12 Miami, and Miam iis the second team out
It's also possible they settle on something like 9 BYU 10 ND 11 Miami 12 Bama, in which case they might then swap ND and Miami.

So BYU is 100% in, Bama is 100% out, and it's probably something like 70/30 ND/Miami for the last spot?

UGA and Texas Tech win = 44.3%
Assume tonights rankings are 9 ND 10 Bama 11 BYU 12 Miami
It's possible the committee just holds them like that, and ND and Bama are in and BYU and Miami are out

It's also possible the committee says "bama/byu/miami were all separated by a razor'd edge, and the CCG losses move Miami ahead" and it goes 9 ND 10 Miami 11 Bama 12 BYU

Either way, ND is 100% in, and BYU is 100% out, and I think it's probably 90/10 Bama/Miami depending on MOV of the SECCG

IF the committee's rankings this week are 9 Bama 10 ND, or if Miami jumps BYU, then that's a whole new set of possibilities

Bama and Texas Tech win = 37.7%
Assume tonights rankings are 9 ND 10 Bama 11 BYU 12 Miami

I think Bama obviously jumps ND, and I think Miami *probably* jumps BYU, and maybe even rises higher. They have h2h loss against OU, but would have TWO h2h losses against UGA. I think Bama could rise all the way to like 3 or 4, but probably more realistically 5-7

9 Oklahoma 10 ND 11 Miami 12 BYU

MY PERSONAL OPINION is that in this scenario, Miami is probably more likely than not to jump ND. Let's say 70/30 Miami

So:

Scenario 1 (8.3%)
BYU 100
Bama 100
ND 0
Miami 0

Scenario 2 (9.7%)
BYU 100
ND 70
Miami 30
Alabama 0

Scenario 3 (44.3%)
ND 100
Bama 90
Miami 10
BYU 0

Scenario 4 (37.7%)
Bama 100
Miami 70
ND 30
BYU 0

So this gives us

BYU:
8.3% + 9.7% = 18% (which makes sense, win and in lose and out)

Bama:
8.3% + 44.3% * 70% + 37.7% = 86%

ND:
9.7% * 70% + 44.3% + 37.7% * 30% = 62%

Miami:
9.7% * 30% + 44.3% * 10% + 37.7% * 70% = 34%

The markets are much more bearish Miami's chances than I am... they think scenario 3 is 100/0 Bama/Miami, and think Miami's chances relative to ND in scenarios 2 and 4 are much lower

My best guess for tonight:

1 OSU
2 Indiana
3 UGA
4 Texas Tech
5 Oregon

is obvious

6 Texas A&M - Projections, AP and Coaches all dropped ATM past Ole Miss, but I don't know. For all the chatter about Miami beating ND, we forget that ATM ALSO beat ND, which is a great win! On the road too.

ATM's SEC schedule as basically the bottom 7 SEC teams and Texas, but Ole Miss' wasn't that much better. Basically the 5 bottom feeders and UGA (who they lost to) and OU (who they beat). I'll take the ND win over the OU win.

ATM lost more recently but, I feel like the committee will notice that OM lost their coach?

7 Ole Miss

8 Oklahoma

9 Notre Dame

10 Alabama

If Bama beat Auburn soundly, I think they would've jumped ND, but the got outgained and out ypp, and probably should've lost. Wouldn't be shocked to see them actually DROP, but staying at 10 is most likely.

The UGA and Vandy wins look better and better, the FSU loss looks worse and worse.

11 BYU

After falling behind 14-0 early, they took care of business against UCF 41-21. They now have 2 ranked wins with Utah and Arizona, and Tech continues to be a wrecking ball. Miami is surging, but I don't think they pass BYU

12 Miami

13 Texas
Texas jumps Utah and Vandy but not Miami is my best guess.

14 Vandy
jumps Utah, but gets jumped by Texas

15 Utah

16 USC

17 UVA

18 Michigan

19 Arizona

20 Iowa

21 Tulane

22 North Texas

23 James Madison

24 Missouri

25 Houston

Really slim pickings at the end there. 8-4 Mizzou and Tennessee whose best combined win is over what, 5-7 Kentucky? Kansas? Florida? Lots of close losses to great teams, but zero wins to speak of.

Houston has a ranked win (over Arizona) and a close one over ASU, but they also lost to west virginia (this is a bad thing, trust me)

Maybe 8-4 Iowa State, who quietly closed with 3 wins in a row after losing 4 straight?

8-4 Illinois beat USC, but they lost to WISCONSIN last week.

9-2 Navy who hasn't beaten anyone other than USF?