2024 Fantasy Football Thread

It's not a fun spot. But when you're picking between WR3-4s and TE2s or a starting QB, it's hard not to go with the QB.

I might just roll out swift in the superflex .

I would go Swift over Rivers.

Gibbs goes that late on underdog ?

It varies. I've seen him goes as early as 10 in some drafts.

He’s goes between like 4 and 12 on DK.

In most of my previous playoff teams, I was focusing a lot on overstacking one team and building around them, but I think I like this more simple strategy a lot better.

Just draft a QB-RB-W/T-W/T from one team. Then pick any other player from the opposing conference to be your flex.

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Alternatively, you could take a QB-W/T-W/T from one team, and then a RB-W/T from another team in the opposite conference. Like here, I had Nix with Sutton and Franklin, but didn't get Harvey. So I grabbed Charb to go with JSN, and then I took Monty and TeSlaa. While I don't have 2 W/T from GB, I can fill the flex with Sutton or Franklin if we get the GB/DEN SB.

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General question, would you rather have advancing pods that advance 1/x or 2/2x? I.e. 1/5 compared to 2/10.

I think 1/5 requires a lower avg score to advance so I guess that haha

At least that’s my understanding from the talk in the eliminator that 5/10 is harder to advance than 1/2 so I’d imagine it translates

Looking to stash a D for week 16 since I got a bye, rank these 3:
KC @titans
Bills @browns
Eagles @ commanders
Saints vs jets

Think it’s

Kc by a lot
Philly
Saints
Bills

That’s what I was thinking. Since teams aren’t equally distributed, it’s easier to be better than 4 teams in a 1/5 than to be better than 8 teams in a 2/10. Even though 20% of teams advance in both pods.

If KC wins this weekend then yes, I think I like them best. The problem is if they lose and are eliminated they come out completely flat with nothing to play for next week

Seems fitting after tonight

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Kyle ****ing pitts being who you need in w15 is so painful a year after he was my highest owned player haha

I thought I was overweight Pitts on DK, but none of them advanced. I did have 14/49 Pitts teams advance on UD, but I won't be checking any teams until after MNF.

Yeah, it’s pretty ridiculous. I saw 6k BBM pods have at least one Pitts team. And then 2,700 don’t. I’m assuming similar ratios across other contests.

I have 28 total Pitts teams that advanced on UD. None in BBM.

All we have to do is win the next two and we’re in. End the playoff drought.

I did check my 4Q teams. I'm advancing 2/11 with Pitts on one team. All the teams that I'm in 3rd place are in pods with Pitts, and 1st and 2nd have him in one of them.

I have 15 pitts teams on UD and 2 on DK that advanced (played no volume on dk though, maybe 20 total entries)

I know Justin is being somewhat tongue-in-cheek here, but I've been thinking about this theory concept a lot this season.

I already aim to never correlate any single 2 players more than 50% of the time, where the highest are always QB/pass catcher correlations. I usually aim for no more than 20% of the time in correlating nonQB players.

But I think I'm going to lower than 50% max to more like 30-35% for QB/pass catcher and then maybe lower teammate/playoff game stacking correlation to more like 15%.

I still believe in stacking and still believe in its upside both for the regular season and playoff rounds. I always want every team to have some element of stacking/correlating. Just look at how well Cousins scored last night. Cousins/Bijan/Pitts will be 3 of the highest scoring players in w15.

But I also think it can harm your teams in certain situations whether it's teammate correlation or QB/skill player correlation, especially for cheaper ADPs. A good straight-forward example I think is Kyler/Michael Wilson. A lot of times, especially when unstacked, I'd take Kyler in the 9th/10th round and say oh yeah Kyler past ADP, easy Wilson tack on at the end. Or add on Benson, Zay Jones, whomever But was that actually good? Does Kyler even help Wilson reach the current ceiling we are seeing? I don't think so. A lot of my Wilson teams have dead Kyler. Hell, the most debated QB/pass catcher combos of Burrow/Chase/Tee were mostly dead on teams with Burrow and could stay alive on teams without Burrow.

I'd also pass on falling QBs like Herbert, Love, TLaw, Dak (when he was cheaper), in the 11th/12th rounds and say oh I missed the good stacking partners so no way I can take some of these QBs, especially when they don't run. Of course back stacking is an option, but I think I might have been forcing that too much. I think with the sims we saw from LegUp, plus how some of these guys spread the ball and score, it can't be bad to take cheap unstacked QBs, especially when falling in ADP.

I'm also going to cool a little more on rookies. I think I still want to always blindly draft IRL round 1 rookies, regardless of price. I don't feel bad about the Golden bet, even though he's sucked. Jeanty was expensive, but I still think he could have paid off in a different world. But on a macro level, we still see too many rookies being slow played, when we are drafting them at prices that really require some element of early season production.

For IRL rounds 2-3 and especially day 3 rookies, I think I just need to accept drafitng less than of those guys, because they'll continue to be pushed up on UD. Look at all the letdowns this year, some at pretty high prices. Jayden Higgins, Burden, Kyle Williams, Harris, Bech, etc. And then when it comes to rookie RBs, I think I'm mainly going to focus on guys who can win or split jobs without injury. Monangai is a good example, even though he was a 7th round IRL pick. But someone like Jarquez Hunter was probably always going to be a bad bet. I split Hunter/Corum, when it probably just made more sense to have the majority on Corum.

Of course, all situations are fluid, but I need to do less blind betting based on what history says about that profile and more situationally aimed betting, then let the chips fall where they fall.

What's the over/under of fantasy points scored by Rivers tomorrow? 5? If he doesn't pull a hammy in warm ups.

Hopefully more, because I’m starting him.

Taking a shot today in this SE contest.

Biggest question of the day is : is CMC dead and shanny lying to us again?