2025 NFL Season Thread: Can Uncle Rico save the Broncos or will they be Nixed?
Greetings friends.
Those of you who know me know me as a Niners fan full of fantastical levels of vitriol and rage. I hav
So ****ing rigged
Yeah I'm sure the NFL refs who are CEOs and stuff in their other lives are interesting in rigging the over-under in a meaningless game.
really good stuff from Barnwell on the Maye vs Stafford discussion:
Two other things popped up since writing that column that push me toward Maye. One is catch rate over expectation (CROE), a receiver stat from NFL Next Gen Stats. Using a model to estimate the likelihood of a ball being caught given the locations of the receiver and nearby defenders and various other factors, it can be a good way to begin estimating how much a receiver is doing in an offense relative to what an average receiver would do in the same attack. Typically, the best receivers in football rank among the league leaders in CROE and its sister stat, receiving yards over expectation (RYOE).
There are six receivers who have run 300 or more routes this season with a CROE at least 10% better than average. Two of them are the obvious first-team All-Pros in Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Jake Ferguson is fifth, and George Pickens is just outside of that top six, a testament to what Dak Prescott can do for you at quarterback. The other three guys in the top six are all Patriots. Kayshon Boutte (plus-23.5% CROE), Stefon Diggs (plus-15.8%) and Mack Hollins (plus-10.2%) are all running what would comfortably be the highest catch rates over expectation of their respective careers. Three receivers in the top six is a Maye stat.
I must be misunderstanding because 3 receivers in the top 6 makes me think they are just running hot.
Was surprised how bad Lamar was at epa two years ago. Really should have gone to Allen that year and Lamar last year.
Bijan Robinson has turned nearly 24% of his targets out of the backfield into first downs, the highest rate for any back over the past three seasons.
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Smith-Njigba currently has more than 44% of the receiving yards produced by the Seattle offense this season, the highest percentage since Brandon Marshall racked up more than 45% of Chicago's market share at receiver in 2012.
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Targets thrown to Nacua have generated 105.9 EPA -- 19 EPA ahead of any other receiver in the league.
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Thuney has the league's lowest quick pressure rate and is one of two guards who played more than 400 pass-blocking snaps without allowing a single sack this season, per Next Gen Stats. The other one, of course, was Nelson.
NewGuy a very proactive and efficient settler of bets
[emoji106]
And then there was one...
Spoiler
I don't like my chances given Dallas gets the Gaints and Miami has to play in New England against a team fighting for the #1 seed, but I came too far to back down now.
One thing this year's bets did for me: I won't be betting win total anymore, winning percentage or nothing, haha
3 Leg ATTD Parlay with DK 30% boost:
CMC
Mike Evans
Derrick Henry
+590 —> +768
Let’s get it!
Bills new stadium cost about 2.1 billion and they are currently asking people to help shovel snow for a whopping $20/hr. Not sure if any of you have ever shoveled snow for an hour (let's be generous and say you spend 40 minutes of that time actually shoveling) but talk about being underpaid.
I shoveled snow for 6 minutes to get my rented car out of the snow in vale and gave up and hired a taskrabbit
If you live in that **** by choice I got nothin for ya
applauding your own penalty! Brilliant
I had 4 season long total win bets. I've already lost 3 with Cowboys under 7.5 pending. So I gotta hope the Giants pull a rabbit out of their ass. 😆
why is your first attempt at donkey punch associated with some sort of fuzzy canadian crown 7 on 7 rule tree root camping not potluck appetizers for a formal primetime saturday night nfl broadcast window
predicting a surplus of Bork plates now
Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that the Falcons and Saints would be playing to decide who wins the division
What is more amazing to me is that each of the 4 NFC-S teams are about equal win equity against each other.
A book could hang -2.5 on the home team in any of the possible matchups and be within a point or so of the true line.
are there any scenarios in which the Bills play the Jets in the playoffs? asking for a friend.
An alternate universe?
1 boncos
7 chargers @ 2 pats
6 bills @ 3 jags
5 texans @ 4 ravens/stealer's
1 seahawks
7 packers @ 2 bears
6 niners @ 3 iggles
5 rams @ 4 panthers
yeehaw
Stafford being the current betting favorite to win MVP seems wild to me.
I checked during the late slate and Maye was still -250 and Stafford was +300 something.
Now he's -130 and Maye is +100 at my book.
Legit coinflip going on.
Miami and Tennessee should swap divisions.
