USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
Iran had a government like that in 1953 and the US & British govts tore it down out of imperialist greed and installed their proxy govt headed by the Shah.
The US and Britain's role in ousting Mossadegh is very over-determined. First off Mossadegh had suspended the Constitution and was trying to seize power himself, upsetting a lot of other powerful people in Iran. And those people, with the help of the US and Britain, raised an Iranian force to overthrow him. No British or American troops were involved at all.
In hindsight most people agree it shouldn't have happened, or at least the US and Britain shouldn't have been involved in it happening. But to blame that as the singular event that caused the state of affairs today is way over determining things.
I could say the Shah allowing Khomeini to go into exile in France was the singular mistake. If he had just been thrown in a prison in Iran (or "accidentally" died while in custody) all this disaster could have been avoided.
one of the awesome things about the United States is even when they lose they still tend to win in the longer term.
The US is disintegrating politically from within.
The strength of a nation accretes from the unity of its people.
Back in the day, we had the upper crust of society participating in military service and defending the nation. The first President Bush. Baseball superstar Ted Williams.
What is the United States today ? What does it represent ?
It's current essence is feudalism which is cannibalizing the population from the bottom up. The feudal lords are building AI and robots to replace people. The public is bled dry by health insurers, phama companies and corporate landlords and the wealth concentrations just keeps on getting tighter. The government is not a check and balance on the excesses of the feudal lords .... it is their agent.
What greener pastures are you planning on emigrating to?
The US immigration rate is +1M/year, and the only thing keeping it this low is the minimal immigration enforcement we do have. When this flips I will start to worry we are doing something wrong.
Ted Williams is the upper crust of society?
He was a superstar athlete in a prominent America sport.
In 1941, he was the last person to hit over .400 and had an OPS which has only been surpassed by Babe Ruth and steroid era Barry Bonds. A person with stats like that today would be considered societal royalty.
He gave up the equivalent of 5 seasons to the US military.
Why is he an idiot? Most of his posts have actually been fairly reasonable and well constructed, especially compared to the average poster’s contribution.
If it needs to be explained to you, then you're retaaded.
Why do you keep saying this when JD fukking Vance, the President of the United fukking States, has said they're getting $300 billion?
It's time for you MAGA simps to start coming up with reasons for why it's good that the US paid them hundreds of billions because it's going to happen.
Trump named every network except Fox as fake news today, but even Fox hates the deal..
However, critics note that the agreement does not require the immediate dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, the removal of enriched uranium stockpiles, restrictions on Tehran's ballistic missile program or the disbandment of Iranian-backed proxy groups such as Hezbollah.
Despite the administration portraying the agreement as a breakthrough, critics have argued that the concessions offered to Iran far outweigh the commitments secured in return.
"The deal is absolutely terrible, there's no getting around it," Will Chamberlain, senior counsel at the Article III Project and vice president of external affairs at the Edmund Burke Foundation, wrote on X. "The text gives Iranians huge, immediate financial benefits and protection for Hezbollah in exchange for opening the Strait - and nothing else. President Trump should renege."
If it needs to be explained to you, then you're retaaded.
Why do you keep saying this when JD fukking Vance, the President of the United fukking States, has said they're getting $300 billion?
It's time for you MAGA simps to start coming up with reasons for why it's good that the US paid them hundreds of billions because it's going to happen.
Tell me you didnt actually listen to Vance's statement without telling me you didnt actually listen to his statement. FWIW, this is the statement,
“Well, Ed, that’s the sort of thing they could have access to, funded by the Gulf Coast Coalition, so long as they honor their end of the obligation.”
--First off, the United States isn't the Gulf Coast Coalition. And Trump wishes he had the power to allocate that kind of money without Congress getting involved (spoiler: he doesn't) The US itself has made no commitments towards paying Iran's reconstruction with American tax dollars.
--Second, this is all theoretical and conditional. And no one, including Iranian leaders themselves, probably thinks it will actually happen. Which is why Iran is making it a point to get as much money upfront as possible, which will mostly be their own money which was confiscated, as everyone expects this to fall apart sooner rather than later.
Tell me you didnt actually listen to Vance's statement without telling me you didnt actually listen to his statement. FWIW, this is the statement,“Well, Ed, that’s the sort of thing they could have access to, funded by the Gulf Coast Coalition, so long as they honor their end of the obligation.”--First off, the United States isn't the Gulf Coast Coalition. The US itself has m
I don't care about your bullshit. Any answer other than a no answer is a yes answer. While you're talking out your ass, why don't you tell us more about how the American taxpayers are not having to pay a single penny for Trump's ballroom. That aged well.
I don't care about your bullshit. Any answer other than a no answer is a yes answer. While you're talking out your ass, why don't you tell us more about how the American taxpayers are not having to pay a single penny for Trump's ballroom. That aged well.
By bullshit you mean the truth. Because I literally quoted his statement, which made it explicitly clear you are wrong.
There was no question I was responding to. But any version of what you said phrased as a question is clearly NO.
I'm going down with the ship.
I can't afford a spot on one of Musk's satellites or a fortified survival bunker in New Zealand.
Having decisively defeated the US in war and being promised $300B windfall by the vanquished foe, seems like Iran would be an attractive place for someone of your ideological commitments and political philosophy.
By bullshit you mean the truth. Because I literally quoted his statement, which made it explicitly clear you are wrong.
There was no question I was responding to. But any version of what you said phrased as a question is clearly NO.
Once again, when asked if they're getting $300 billion, the only answer is no if the answer is no. I don't care if you're dumb enough to fall for his bullshit answer and will twist yourself into a pretzel to do his bidding.
How much is Trump's ballroom costing taxpayers? Exactly, and that's when they emphatically said it will cost taxpayers $0.
Once again, when asked if they're getting $300 billion, the only answer is no if the answer is no. I don't care if you're dumb enough to fall for his bullshit answer and will twist yourself into a pretzel to do his bidding.
How much is Trump's ballroom costing taxpayers? Exactly, and that's when they emphatically said it will cost taxpayers $0.
Ok. So it seems you are furiously backpedaling and acknowledging Vance did not say the US was giving Iran $300B. Nor is it going to give Iran $300B. Nor could Trump even make such a commitment if he wanted to.
Glad we cleared that up.
Serious question. Do you believe the US President has the authority to just decide to authorize the US govt giving another nation $300B? If not, what is the point of this Kabuki theatre. It all comes across as so bad faith on your part.
He was a superstar athlete in a prominent America sport.
In 1941, he was the last person to hit over .400 and had an OPS which has only been surpassed by Babe Ruth and steroid era Barry Bonds. A person with stats like that today would be considered societal royalty.
He gave up the equivalent of 5 seasons to the US military.
i don’t think his OPS comes into it. he made twenty thousand dollars. i think you are confusing fame with power.
they sent Elvis into the service as well. it’s good for business. Elvis wasn’t part of the crust either. he and ted are the potatoes.
Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?
Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you
Woo, woo, woo
What's that you say, Mrs. Robinson?
Joltin' Joe has left and gone away
Hey, hey, hey
Hey, hey, hey
--I think we can all understand the gist of the point he was conveying, and it isn't necessarily to overly nit it up.
i never understood that song anyway. joe married marilyn monroe and did whatever. why is the nation lonely and why are they turning to joe about it in the song? how is he supposed to heal a nations loneliness when he cannot heal his own?
Ok. So it seems you are furiously backpedaling and acknowledging Vance did not say the US was giving Iran $300B. Nor is it going to give Iran $300B. Nor could Trump even make such a commitment if he wanted to.
Glad we cleared that up.
I'm not backpedaling anything. What a weakass gaslight attempt.
Here's my 4-point prediction:
1) Iran is going to get a shitload of money in reparations
2) Trump is going to call the reparations an investment into the Iranian people (or some other bullshit)
3) Jared and Witkoff are going to facilitate it so they can get their hands on it
4) You'll still be sucking Trump's orange dick
i never understood that song anyway. joe married marilyn monroe and did whatever. why is the nation lonely and why are they turning to joe about it in the song? how is he supposed to heal a nations loneliness when he cannot heal his own?
Apparently Joe DiMaggio had the same question
Simon reportedly later met DiMaggio at a restaurant in New York City in the 1970s and the slugger immediately asked Simon, “What I don’t understand is why you ask where I’ve gone. I just did a Mr. Coffee commercial, I’m a spokesman for Bowery Savings Bank and I haven’t gone anywhere!”
I think this is something which is very problematic for China that we dont talk about enough, that greatly constrains their ability to project hard power. Under Xi, China's aggressive posturing has turned most of East Asia against them, including North Korea. Xi is actually in a summit in NK right now trying to mend things. With waning of US hard power in the region Japan es
That is certainly true. We also see cooperation and alliances starting to form between countries that have traditionally not been aligned on matters of foreign policy or national security, which is probably simply out of necessity due to China's size compared to them as individual countries.
Iran doesn't actually have a conventional military at all. No tanks, artillery, infantry, etc. They cant really project power at all outside their boundaries using military force.
I don't know where this comes from. Iran certainly has a conventional military. If we count outside the IRGC it operates about 600 000 active duty personnel and some 300 000 reservists equipped to mobilize. In addition about half the male population completes the mandatory draft service. How many would fight of the non-active / non-reservist population is anyone's guess, but the complete picture if we think ground invasion and combine it with Iran's tough terrain and mountain ranges would make the Iraq war look like a holiday.
The equipment is a mix of cold war equipment and equipment from its own production (Iran is a next exporter of arms). Exact numbers are not known and vary, but I am guessing you are looking at a least a couple of thousand main battle tanks alone and there is no lack of other types of conventional capacity (IFVs, artillery, logistics etc).
Then of course you have the IRGC, which fields some 100 000 soldiers and has its own capacities in forms of equipment, vehicles, tanks etc.
Outside the conventional forces, you have the Basij military, a paramilitary force counting some 600 000 men that can be directly called up and millions of members outside that. In conventional conflict this group might not be that well equipped, but in terms of asymmetric capacity and intelligence value it would be a nightmare to deal with.
It is certainly true that outside its borders, Iran prefers asymmetric tactics and proxy warfare. Now, there are two ways to look at that. You could look at it and say "Oh, that means they are weak in conventional warfare", which is the optimistic route for a hawk. The second way of looking at it is to see that they are actually quite good at asymmetric warfare and use it because it is an effective way to wage their wars without losing conventional assets against superior foes, meaning they probably understand warfare pretty well. More evidence to this is that Iran has been able to quickly incorporate drone warfare and missile warfare into its tactics, and adapt it to engaging foes that are far stronger conventionally on the battlefield, even outside its borders.
As I have said before, Iran is no military miracle. And the cohesion and morale of its forces outside the IRGC is always a wildcard, because these forces are not trusted by the regime, only the IRGC is (likely because the IRGC is the regime at this point). However, if invaded, I would not necessarily bet on the optimist take.
Peter Zeihan does a geopolitical strategy show on Youtube that I listen to. He has been saying for years that drones were the future of warfare and Iran's were the gold standard. And he has said the US was being negligent not investing more resources into drones and drone defense. He could have been wrong I guess, but I would say it is not fair to say Iran "lucked" into an e
william spaneil is the goat. I guess luck is probably not the right word. innovation is often done by the desperate
Peter Zeihan does a geopolitical strategy show on Youtube that I listen to. He has been saying for years that drones were the future of warfare and Iran's were the gold standard. And he has said the US was being negligent not investing more resources into drones and drone defense. He could have been wrong I guess, but I would say it is not fair to say Iran "lucked" into an e
Iran paid attention in Ukraine, and also likely got a lot of intel and knowledge from Russia in return from their arms sales. Then they adopted this into their own situation, because unlike Ukraine they would not be getting a lot of equipment and money from outside partners. Their bet would have to be a war of quick economical and political attrition, made easier by geography and the Strait of Hormuz.
Behind closed doors I am also guessing they demanded sharing of Russian intelligence on the ground in Gulf states, targeting data, access to Russian satellite capacity and parts / training for their nuclear weapons programme.
Then as the US and Israeli bombing campaign got underway, I am guessing the timeline went a bit like this.
1. The Trump administration wants a quick victory in Iran. Opposition to the idea are purged, which combined with Hegseth's leadership replacing a lot of the best brass with loyalists means there are not enough adults at the table to tell them that a quick victory will be difficult.
2. The bombing campaign together with Israel gets underway. It achieves what it can achieve, but those successes does not translate to meaningful strategic victories. Even though Iran can do little to stop the campaign itself, their new capacities means that they are actually hitting back a lot harder than the administration expected.
3. The administration finally has to note that the war will not end quickly enough to stop political and economical costs to become critical at home.
4. A plan to blockade Iran, seize Kharg island and potentially also economically important parts of the flat southwestern part of Iran is formed.
5. The groundwork for an US airborne force is established inside Israel, likely in part because other bases in the region can no longer be kept fully safe from Iranian attacks, making the logistics difficult in those places.
6. Some people somewhere finally grows a pair and manages to get across that even concentrating a small expeditionary force in a confined geographical location will likely mean high losses and difficult logistics.
7. It dawns on the Trump administration that this will not be as easy to lie about as their material losses and abandoned bases.
8. The expeditionary plan is abandoned, and instead focus becomes the blockade, hoping that the economic fallout will force the regime to yield. Unfortunately, Iran's stockpiles of fuel and equipment for war are still substantial. So the clock of the Iranian regime toppling due to economy vs Trump's popularity toppling due to economy does not go in his favor.
9. The options are now ground invasion vs seeking an end to the war. A ground invasion would take at least 3-4 months to plan and prepare for, be horrifyingly expensive and the optics of a new war in the middle east would hit right around the time of American elections combined with economic depression from a world starved of oil.
10. Iran smells the weakness, plus hardliners are now running most of the show, so their strategy in the negotiations become simple: Give next to nothing.
11. A tentative agreement is formed, but signals so far seem to suggest the Trump administration is tethered to it.
As for the future, trustworthiness and transparency have not been much on display in this war so far, so observers will just have to wait and see.
