2024 Fantasy Football Thread

I can’t seem to quit Gray. I feel like one of these years Kelce is gonna miss time and Gray is fully capable of putting up numbers. Also, he can have a couple spike weeks a year. It’s all dart throws with the 20th pick. My TE room is a little boring. I felt both Mayer and Gray have the ability to pop. If Mahomes has a big year and at the end of the year I have Gray when everybody else has an injured Kelce that could be big. As we get into training camp and we have a better idea of which late round RB’s and WR’s are gonna have a role I’d agree to go that route.

I’ll have to check and see if I have any. Another fun one is Hampton/Mahomes/Worthy/Kelce

Final promo of Best Ball Week.

Enter 2 Millies and get 1 free.

Way better than that BS that UD tried a few weeks ago...Buy 4 Get 1 BBM

What's nice about this exact start is I can now take 4 RBs and 1 WR with my next 5 picks. Grab Cam, Stroud, or Darnold in Round 12 and take an optional 3rd QB if it fits.

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After 54 drafts I finally got the number one pick. I did one of those soccer slides after scoring a goal. Unfortunately I pulled a hammy.

We could easily revert back to zero RB being the play. That used to be the play until it wasn’t.

I heard that the same type of roster configuration hasn’t worked two years in a row. Zero RB won then hero RB won then robust RB won.

I have mostly zero or hero RB this year. I haven’t taken it to the extreme that you have. If you get lucky with an RB or two this team could win the money.

There are a lot of problems with zero RB in the current landscape:

1. Elite TEs are still relatively cheap. And elite QBs are as cheap as they’ve ever been. There is less opportunity cost for both.

A big part of the thesis of zero RB is passing on poorly high priced RBs in favor of elite options at other positions.

2. RBs still really aren’t that priced up. We still have 5 WRs in the first round. In previous seasons, especially 5+ years ago, it wasn’t uncommon to see an entire first round of RBs. Which pushed them all up even more.

3. A lot of the upside profiles are far more expensive than they used to be. Hendo, Tuten, Judkins, Skattebo, etc. are all profiles that would have been cheaper because they’re more uncertain. Those profiles helped propel zero RB when it hit. I still think some of these guys will be a key to the season, but that’s also why I like to have at least 2 RBs through the 5th/6th round. And even when I do, I can have 1 elite QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs and an elite TE through 7 with no issues.

And guys that are the real dead zone backs like Pollard, Chuba, Mondre and Warren are priced accordingly. They would have been 4th-5th round picks in year’s past. Monty fits this archetype and could be an actual dead zone back, even so, he’s still cheaper than he would have been in previous years.

4. There are plenty of upside WR profiles in the top 100 or so, which means you can still take the high priced good RBs and add a bunch of upside later.

Overall, I think the market has done a great job of pricing this year. There are still paths to zero RB paying off (Commanders, Broncos, Vikings, to name a few) but it’s a harder sell in the current market. Especially because of bullet #1 above.

I’ll have some zero RB in my portfolio, but it’s a thinner bet when the pricing better fits the game we are playing. Definitely need to build it like newguy above with both the QB and TE and generally stop at 4 WRs max before pivoting to RB.

There's a lot of late RBs I like that fit the zero and hero mold, and I'm really happy if I can get at least 3 of any of these guys. They all have CV/late season upside, and some of them might just be the outright starters.

Brooks
Mason
Dowdle
Monangai
Corum
Dobbins
JCM
CRod
Tracy
Keaton
Charb
Pacheco?

Got a pretty fun robust build

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Idk if this is correct or not, but I do not decide to build in any particular way, I generally let the board dictate my picks and then I make positional allocations based on that

I think that lets me diversify and build lots of unique builds with (hopefully) clv

I'd say I'm a mix of

60% letting the board show me the way
30% player takes
10% combos

Here's one I started developing a plan for after taking Chase. I noticed out of 500 drafts on UD, there's only 2 teams with Chase/Ladd/Herbert. So that became my goal, which I'm willing to alter if something crazy happens. (Like Bowers or D. Henry falling to 28).

I also knew unless I got a nicer faller, I'd probably be starting WR/WR/WR. Ideally I'd go RB/RB next, but I'm definitely taking at least 1 since I know my 7th round pick is being used on Herbert.

I ended up taking 3 RBs between rounds 8 and 11 since I figured I'm favored to get Stroud in the 13th, but then I was gifted with a falling Malik. After that I'm sitting on a 2-5-5-1 with my focus on filling out TE and possibly taking Rodgers if he's there in Round 15.

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Mason would be one of those guys, wouldn't he...

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You’ll never see me do it.

How we finishing this team? 1 RB and WR or 2 WRs? Not sure if the expectation of what Diggs and Deebo can be is enough to not add 2 more WRs. Plus the RB draft capital as it is.

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2 WR or 1 WR and 1 TE

TE is fair. But I decided on 2 WRs. Thought the team needed more outs there. Noel and Kirk.

I probably would’ve gone 1 wr 1te but 2wrs was completely fine as well. Don’t think it makes much of a difference one way or another

I do like 2 WR after thinking it over. Just since you have 2 free agents, 2 rookies, and only one truly defined WR1 in Ladd.

Yeah I have a bunch of player takes as well, I more meant I don’t go into a draft saying I’m building robust or 0rb or hero rb. I take the players I like best in the spots and then I decide on the structure after the first bunch of rounds

For sure. What I think a lot of people (not you) are doing though is starting WR/WR and then when they have a choice between Breece and Olave in the 3rd are leaning towards Breece because "zero RB is dead" and the meta of making sure you get a RB in the first 3 rounds.

It might actually be time for me to stop drafting.

None of the teams I drafted last year in July or August advanced.

Things are certainly about to get wild in the market lol. I think I'm mostly going to try not to react. Fade the guys rising, especially when the reports are still ambiguous. Fade the guys falling, especially when it's due to training camp or preseason game injuries.

Also, Pete was talking about on BBB how into Mondre he is, and I really don't think people have paid attention enough to the box score and touch counts from last season. I get that the Pats favored Mondre in the SB run, and that's probably not nothing, but I think it's being way overstated. Especially in those gamescripts and against the defenses they played. But after Mondre's injury in w8, there was a clear shift in opportunity priority.

During the regular season, and including w18, Hendo had 222 opportunities (targets + rushes) compared to 167 to Mondre.

Prior to Mondre's injury from w1-8, Mondre's touches versus Hendo:

10, 11
16, 5
7, 14
10, 9
9, 9
14, 11
20, 2
16, 10

Total: Mondre 102, Hendo 71

From w9-18, Mondre's touches versus Hendo:

0, 20
0, 15
0, 24
8, 22
15, 15
9, 17
11, 6
13, 19
9, 13

Total: Mondre 65, Hendo 151, and even removing the 3 games Mondre missed, it was 65, 92.

Obviously, the pricing reflects this with Hendo being more expensive, but I think there is a lot more downside risk on Mondre with a much lower floor than a lot of people are giving credit for with how much he costs. I think there's a decent chance that Hendo improves coming into year 2 and renders Mondre more to a contingent bet than a standalone bet. Ultimately, I think I'll probably have at least 2x Hendo exposure compared to Mondre.

Sounds about right

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Nice! I'm about 10% Hendo and 5% Mondre. I might even push this more towards 12% and 4%.

Plenty of outcomes where Hendo is a 2nd or 3rd round pick next season.

I have a lot of mondre, but this definitely scares me off a bit. I’ve been soft fading hendo (4%) too which is scary from what you wrote

The playoff run for sure can’t be ignored, but I’m going to have to think through this some more for sure