2024 Fantasy Football Thread

I can't even imagine. I'm still working on the 5 slows I started 2 weeks ago, and hating life.

That’s an insane amount hahaha

Pretty deep into the auction now. Start 12x13 best ball

How much depth is necessary in dynasty best ball? I.e would it be better to get a bunch of definite non zeroes (kupp, Ridley jeudy, etc… or better to take guys like DK and then $1 guys like Horton or whatever)

Here’s the team

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This is how I feel about Ridley.

I think I’d chase guys running routes, especially with it being, I assume, h2h each week. I also think RBs 2, 3, and 4 (on some teams) are very valuable. And the TEs running routes, like Otton. With it being start 13.

But the Horton types still have value in that spike week upside. I’d want a mix of it all, with the roster being bigger than the normal 18-20 we play, plus the larger starting lineups.

First round gut feelings.

1) Puca…I don’t feel good. I see big TD regression from Stafford. The Rams D should be great and keep games lower scoring. Puca is always an injury risk due to his physicality. Also he’s a bonehead. I’ll be slightly below on him.

2) CMC…This just feels like a bad CMC year incoming. His running metrics are not good. He had a ton of usage last year.

3) ARSB….Always a good pick due to his elite consistency. Maybe more TD upside with Montgomery gone. My gut tells me he’s gonna have a monster season.

4) Jeanty….I would not be shocked if he ends up the fantasy MVP. The Raiders on paper have upgraded the offensive line. When Jeanty gets blocking up front he is the best in the business in regards to forcing missed tackles. Vegas has the Raiders scoring 5 more points a game this year which is huge. Jeanty had monster games in good game scripts. Vegas is juiced toward the over wins this year. I think they’ll,be much more competitive this year. They have no alpha receivers to steal TD’s. Clint Kubiac is a big upgrade at coach. This offense should be condensed between Bowers and Jeanty. The QB play should be better.

Puka doesn’t need a lot of TDs to payoff. Stafford TD negative regression would affect Davante the most, but I’m guessing they won’t stop throwing the 1-5 yard end zone targets. It’s just a matter of how many chances they get. Puka has played 17/17, 11/17, and 16/17. Plus all 6 playoff games during his career.

CMC could very well wear down and get injured. But if he stays healthy, his rushing metrics won’t matter. Plus, he was better rushing second half of last season than first.

How much better can ARSB get? 172/117/1,401/11. His best YPT has been 9.24, so maybe he pushes up towards 1,600 yards, but seems close to ceiling at targets and TDs as it is the last 3 years. He probably just doesn’t have 1.8k-2k yards and 15+ TD ultimate ceiling. He’s still a great pick.

Jeanty certainly has RB 1 overall upside, but it’s not like the market disagrees. He’s a late first round pick, with plenty of downside risk.

Also, watching Kerrane top guy stream and he said he max entered LD and is currently in 400 slows LOL.

Agree with your assessment

If CMC is the guy you need this year, then I'll be taking next year off.

Do you still take everyone else in that range of the first round? Doesn't JT have similar injury risk? He had 369 touches last year while playing 17 games and missed 3, 7, and 6 games the previous the 3 seasons. Plus, the offense tanked once Dimes got injured.

I wouldn't fault anyone for putting ARSB at 6, so if you're heavy ARSB over JT and CMC, I get it.

CD has big production risk and really only 1 ceiling season, from that chart you posted a few days ago. Pickens, improved defense, etc.

JJ, Jeanty, Barkley, Hampton, etc. all have their own respective downside risks. I like Cook, but his receiving upside seems capped, plus Josh TD vulture.

I guess I don't see CMC as that much riskier than anyone else in that range, and he has the most upside. Also another reason why I think everyone has the consensus top 5 too.

Wow, UD sent me a 25% deposit bonus, up to $50 in bonus funds. It's been a while since I've received one of those haha.

Being under on CMC goes back to the same reason I had very little Saquon last year.

RBs that lead the league in touches are historically bad for fantasy the following season.

Are there outliers? Sure, which is why I'll probably end up with 4%.

I think it should be more about opportunity cost than anything. If CMC was the 1.01, I'd probably have 0%. But at 1.07, the thesis changes. You have to get the fade right plus the guy right that you're taking instead.

Was Saquon a bad pick last year? Overall, he was fine, espeically if you look at some of the bad picks behind him even though at cost it wasn't great.

JJ, Nico, Nabers, BTJ, Jeanty, Henry (at least until w16 and w17 lol), etc. were all pretty bad. CMC, Puka, and ARSB were the ones you wanted.

CMC was bad in 2024 since he was the 1.01. But even then, there were some not great picks right behind. CD, Reek, Breece, etc. Chase, ARSB, JJ, Bijan, Gibbs, etc. were the ones you wanted.

You could have 0% of CMC and 12% each of two guys behind instead, where those guys fail anyways.

Lol

Accidentally trying a hero WR build.

Good luck!

Damn. Totally forgot about the WSOP. Catching up on some of replays on YT. Starting with the PPC FT.

20th Eliminator. Went with a 3 early QB build.

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Mizrachi followed up last year by winning the $10k PLO for $1.35m

I’m not sure about the subtleties of this contest but this looks good. You’re thick at QB. You probably could use a third TE but you have to take Pat late.

Two years ago I had the number one pick a ton and for the first time ever I did not feel that warm and fuzzy feeling of drafting CMC. I ignored my gut and payed the price.

Last year I couldn’t believe CMC was going late first/early second to start the year. I felt great again taking CMC.

This year the gut is saying don’t do it. The gut isn’t just a feeling. It’s an accumulation of experiences that are unconsciously rising to the top.

Only a few left to go in the $3. Might as well get one CMC share.

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Drafters just launched their SF

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The Nix/Bryant/Engram stack is sneaky good.

Waddle and Sutton will be the main guy’s but Bryant will be on the field a lot because he is a great blocker. The Broncos trust him. They threw to him on the first 3 passes against the Bills in the playoffs before he got hurt. There is a lot of talk that Franklin is gonna get traded. I think Bryant will be the eventual Sutton replacement when he moves on.

I expect Engram to have a better year. Denver didn’t spend a lot of capital to improve the TE room.

Adding Waddle should open up things for both of these guy’s. Also, the running game should be improved which will help everybody.

Obviously the stacks price is right.

Bryant will stack good practices during training camp because that’s what he does. He’ll be moving up a few rounds by the time season starts.