Climate Change - increasingly horrible disasters loom

The larger forces in the example are two-fold.

1) The dwindling supply of metabolic inputs
2) The increasing presence of toxic metabolic output

At the end, the bacteria are simultaneously starving and choking on their own toxic waste.

Humans are creating a quasi-lifeform which is digital in nature and competing for our most essential metabolic input .... water. The humans who want to harness that digital supremacy for their short-term personal power don't seem to give a damn about the long-term consequences.

The lust for short-term personal power is an innate trait which is leading to an evolutionary bottleneck for the species. It's a trait which may make human adaptation impossible.

I think it's important to try and anticipate the developments which will accompany collapse. It's a gradual process which is accelerating. Not a sudden impact like a meteor or a supervolcano eruption.

I'll begin with a mod to humility and say that it's impossible to predict with precision. I don't have a 20/20 crystal ball into the future.

With that in mind .... here are the things which are blinking red.

1) Fresh water shortages

These are emerging around the world. The US as a whole is in a pretty significant drought which is most acute in the Colorado River Basin. That region is dependent upon winter snowpack which doesn't happen when it's too warm to snow. Lake Mead and Lake Powell are trending in the direction of dead pool.

2) Inflation

More people on a planet with finite resources living in a society which demands growth. Inflation is expected and it's getting worse.

3)Sea Level Rise & Coastal Inundation / Erosion

This is a highly nuanced topic which deserves its own thread.

Sea levels are simultaneously a global and regional issue. They don't rise equally in different places and the regional disparities are rather dramatic.

The global rise is due to melting land based ice and thermal expansion. Sea level rise is accelerating. Doubling in the last two decades and poised to accelerate further as ice shelves like those in front of Thwaites Glacier collapse and reduce the resistance to outflow.

Regional rise is dependent upon a variety of factors. Ocean currents, land subsidence, gravitational forces.

Beyond sea level rise, there are tides whose amplitudes are governed by an 18.6 year lunar cycle. Around 2034, the high tide amplitude will be maxed out a few inches higher than the norm and 6 inches higher than present.

Doesn't seem too bad until you superimpose a cat 5 storm surge on top of the elevated ocean.

4) Rain Bombs

These are events such as accompanied Hurricanes Harvey, Florence & Helene. Storms that drop >1 meter of rain and flood everything in their path and spread the toxic contents on the surface like the pig farm excrement in N. Carolina.

The worst rain bomb would be something they refer to in California disaster planning as an ARk storm which stands for Atmospheric River storm. These occurred before climate change with the most recent biblical CA rain event occurring in 1861-2 so they aren't solely attributable to climate change. But they are made more likely and more powerful by climate change and more likely to occur during an El Nino when the jet stream is pushed further south. These are trains of atmospheric rivers that just dump for weeks on end. Would be the worst natural disaster in US history if the 1861 event were simply repeated given all of the infrastructure which now exists.

5) Uninsurable Real Estate ==> Banking Crisis

Wildfire and storm damage is growing faster than the economy. Regions are transition toward economic infeasibility. When uninsured property owners get wiped out, the property will be abandoned and people will attempt to migrate into areas where the natives don't want them. A nice recipe for governing instability.

The biggest concentration of vulnerable mortgages are guaranteed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. But at some point, the ability to obtain mortgages in many locations is wiped out because no one can underwrite the risk. What happens to banks balance sheets when too much real estate becomes uninsurable? Think 2008 but on a larger scale.

6) Heatwaves

Don't need to spend a lot of time with this. But things reach a different category when we start exceeding wet bulb thresholds. It's estimated that an excess deaths in the recent European heat wave exceeded 20,000.

Within a decade, events may impact millions at a time.

7) Crop Failures

Crops needs an acceptable range of light, temperature and moisture. Too much or too little of any of those variables screws up the harvest. Climate change is amplifying the range of those variables, making it more likely that they fall outside of the acceptable range.

Fertilizer shortages such as those resulting from conflict with Iran don't help matters.

8) Geoengineering

We're almost certain going to attempt SRM or Solar Radiation Management. We're going to try to manage the temperature by blocking sunlight.

9) Ocean ecosystem collapse

Blocking sunlight doesn't stop the ocean from absorbing the CO2 from our emissions, leading to a pretty dramatic acidification which is well under way. Coral reef systems are going to get hammered by this El Nino.

10) Plastic Poisoning

The amount of plastic in our bodies has doubled over the past decade and is climbing rapidly.

11) Infertility

Male testosterone levels have nearly halved over the last 50 years. Too much environmental toxin. And who wants to raise kids in a darkening world?

That's enough for now.

This is an overnight low temperature in the S. American winter at 4,000 ft elevation.

As for number #1 would that include all private air travel?

#2 will do nothing for climate change its global welfare

Green pushing leaders have promised so many green jobs that pay well already