Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
Ending support does not end the war. As you said, at the current pace it would take Russia 110 years to conquer all of Ukraine, removing support shortens that time by a lot, but it doesn't shorten it to the point that Ukraine immediately capitulates. Ukrainians know what happens if they give concessions to Russia and some of the things Putin wants puts Ukraine in a position where they are bound to be taken over in the future.
Here's what I think will happen:
Fighting will intensify until Trump com
Ukraine was blessed with an unusually warm winter which hurt Russia's advances and also minimized the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
I'm not sure about how the rollout of remaining aid will occur, but Trump has will make it impossible to vote for another package and he will not use his drawdown to help Ukraine.
It looks like aid will be forced through Spring, maybe into Summer. Afterwards Ukraine could be in a very bad position if Europe doesn’t step up aid and Trump completely cuts them off.
He will tell Putin and Ukraine to work it out.
Putin and Ukraine will not be able to work it out because Putin will offer capitulation terms.
Putin and Trump will unleash an absurd amount of propaganda saying that all holdups over the peace deal are due to Ukraine, not Putin.
Trump will try to sell the image that Putin is dealing in earnest and if there's not enough outrage he will just let Putin do whatever he wishes. Since Putin has no desire for peace this means he continues attacking. If there is enough outrage then Trump will have to either resume aid, or figure out a way to reign Putin in and agree to a peace deal that is not Ukrainian capitulation.
This is exactly where we are at now. A lot of speculation that this was an orchestrated attack on Zelenskyy. The petty jibes at the start of the meeting, followed by MTG’s BF’s further attempt, and then JD Vance’s unprofessional outburst is a good amount of evidence that this was a setup. I don’t think any VP would be so unprofessional unless he was directly told to be so.
There’s a lot of reasons why this happened, but the main is that Trump never had a plan. “I’ll end the war in 1 day”, 100 days, 6 months, etc was always nonsense. Ukraine and Russia’s demands are not reconcilable. Russia is demanding that Ukraine give up 5 oblasts, 4 of which Russia does not control. Russia is also demanding that Ukraine neuter its own military and no peacekeepers are allowed in Ukraine which just guarantees a future invasion with a massive Russian advantage. Furthermore Ukraine needs absolutely no help from Trump to capitulate; Trump has offered absolutely nothing here.
This leaves Trump in a position where he needs to decide who to blame; it can’t be his fault that the war doesn’t end in a timely manner as he promised. For anyone who has read any of his takes on the situation, it should be pretty clear that it would be Zelenskyy and not Putin. Unfortunately Zelenskyy is far more popular than Putin and most Americans are smart enough to realize that Russia is the one who launched the unprovoked imperialist invasion. This was meant to paint Zelenskyy in an extremely negative light as a way to gain support for doing what is both morally and tactically wrong.
If you’re in the EU you need to step up, pressure your governments to purchase weapons and aid Ukraine. If you’re in USA you need to make it clear you do not agree with Trump and when even more Ukrainians are being murdered every day because of his policies that it will not go well for him.
Trump is heading straight into a multipolar world which benefits Russia, China, Iran, and N Korea. Here is a great video explaining the world we entering:
Yeah, MI6 spooks are real trustworthy. This isn't the movies.
Literally the opposite of everything you said is true. Projection at it's finest.
How did someone so unqualified get to be president of Ukraine? It was the result of a series of events.
- destroy democracy in Ukraine via violent coup
- the U.S. manipulate the struggle for power via how they know best - television or media
- get a media star partner willing to opportunistically exploit their fame through what are now the ruins of free press and democracy, someone with ties to oligarchs who have the money needed
- have this pawn run on a popular agenda of peace and negotiation with
If he was so unqualified, Ukraine would have capitulated to Russia a long time ago.
Zelenskey will go down in history as one of the worlds greatest leaders.
That's what's keeping Trump up at night.
Zelenskey was a media star and started a media business worth hundreds of millions.
This idea that he's some kind of idiot is fake news.
Don't be Russian lap dog's guys.
Trump is heading straight into a multipolar world which benefits Russia, China, Iran, and N Korea. Here is a great video explaining the world we entering:
--Hello Stranger. Welcome back.
--Seems this is where the world was going anyways. The world seems over Pax Americana, liberalism and Western moralizing. The argument is that by disengaging from the empire in the way we are, especially by cancelling all the USAID, we are going to lose all our soft power. But it isn't obvious we really had much soft power left anyways.
One by one, every country in Africa is kicking us out (although it seems they still want all the aid with no strings attached), most of the world opposes us in the UN out of principle, and when we started sanctioning Russia and Iran, most of the world couldn't wait to jump in to take advantage.
Seems the world prefers how China and Russia do business, as opposed to how the US and Western Europe does business. No moralizing or demands to embrace liberalism.
I am not back back, just passing through.
Overall I think you are correct although missing a ton of nuance. USA exited WW2 in a great position that was unsustainable, just because that position is declining (guaranteed when you're at your highest position) doesn't mean we retreat from all global influence and allow authoritarians to do whatever they want. Declining trends aren't irreversible and they also aren't guaranteed to continue forever.
Not every country in Africa is kicking us out and it's mostly the ones who are suffering from Russian destabilization or outright coups. Why do you even think this is important? If it's because you think these countries are important to have as allies then it is important to take efforts to keep them as allies; are you suggesting we abandon them because they lack important or reinforce them because they are important? Your post seems to suggest both.
Most of the world didn't jump ship to take advantage of Russia and Iranian sanctions. China and India found ways to benefit from sanctions, but most of the world did not dramatically change trade patterns. In the case of India it has been completely opportunistic, not a drastic shift in global alliance, and they largely discarded Russia when it was not as beneficial to them.
You seem to be referring to "most of the world" as based on number of countries. Mali and Niger aren't equally valuable as Japan and France in the discussion of world security.
lol i knew that one post would summon you
Nice to see you back B, even if you're just passing through, hope to see more of your contributions itt at a future date.
seen so many videos of this kind of thing. this is rageworthy indeed, as are all of these videos, but the thing that stuck with me in this particular video is that they just left the poor dog to die as well. these are Western values.
What the UN wanted?
Is everything a r-tarded conspiracy now but somehow semiliterate people eat it all up anyway?
seen so many videos of this kind of thing. this is rageworthy indeed, as are all of these videos, but the thing that stuck with me in this particular video is that they just left the poor dog to die as well. these are Western values.
No secret UA have a draft. It's an existentional conflict.
It's on his order because he is the president. Any other president fighting for his country would have done the same and the draft is supported by most.
The US had a draft in wars that weren't about its survival and they weren't even invaded.
No secret UA have a draft. It's an existentional conflict.
It's on his order because he is the president. Any other president fighting for his country would have done the same and the draft is supported by most.
The US had a draft in wars that weren't about its survival and they weren't even invaded.
this isnt a draft. its slave catchers patrolling the country and killing pets for good measure.
right, this is the typical liberal response. they dont want to see these things. they dont want to believe them. and its all Russian propaganda.
except, heres some Ukrainian propaganda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/...
this whole thing has become a massive human trafficking and extortion racket. that man is not really human. his life and and humanity and what he holds dear such as presumably his pet) are not worth anything. these are Western values of course.
Show us this worked any differently in the US, which survival didn't even rely on a draft.
I dont think the USA aka the Great Satan is a model that should be followed.
regardless, I dont remember reading about roaming bands of slave catchers forcibly and abusively Shanghaing tons of men off the streets during Vietnam or whenever. if you have some literature, I would love to read it.
I dont think the USA aka the Great Satan is a model that should be followed.
regardless, I dont remember reading about roaming bands of slave catchers forcibly and abusively Shanghaing tons of men off the streets during Vietnam or whenever. if you have some literature, I would love to read it.
After you're drafted, you'll be arrested if you don't come voluntarily.
It's literally how it's done everywhere.
How else are they supposed to do it?
What we have to avoid is Russia taking over more territory and drafting these men in much worse conditions for them and us anyway.
I know that Americans were arrested. but again, they didnt have roaming gangs of slave catchers pursuing every draft age man in the country. and I am pretty sure most of those the draft evaders in the US were put in jail and not sent to the front lines to die so the West can futilely try to dismantle Russia.
How else are they supposed to do it?
a leopard cant change its spots so this is all the rulers can do. I am just pointing out how depraved and murderous Western liberal values are.
I dont think the USA aka the Great Satan is a model that should be followed.
regardless, I dont remember reading about roaming bands of slave catchers forcibly and abusively Shanghaing tons of men off the streets during Vietnam or whenever. if you have some literature, I would love to read it.
Do you ever have anything positive to say about anything?
Not talking about this topic, just notice you never ever mention what is the better country/model/people/action/etc...
You only point out faults without ever engaging towards a (obviously known for you) solution.
right, this is the typical liberal response. they dont want to see these things. they dont want to believe them. and its all Russian propaganda.
except, heres some Ukrainian propaganda
https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2024/...
this whole thing has become a massive human trafficking and extortion racket. that man is not really human. his life and and humanity and what he holds dear such as presumably his pet) are not worth anything. these are Western values of course.
No I'm just sick if your constant smears against Ukraine and Zelensky which you're clearly getting from alt right x despite your proclaimed leftism. You accused him of being a drug addict earlier which means you also get your info from Russian bots as well as alt right loons.
I have never once read a condemnation of Putin by you. You clearly have a hard on for despotic thugs like Putin and anti Semitic zealots like Hamas which you justify with your West bad bullshit.
Nobody is saying the west hasn't done horrible things historically, ny own country was a victim of colonialism.
But the present day west is nowhere nears as bad as Putin and all the other scumbags you Stan for ad naseam.
So yeah blow it out your arse. Move to Russia and suck Vlad's dick more since you admire him so much.
Truly contemptible behaviour from you and shows how despite your tired bullshit you simply admire bullies
.Ukraine is the victim here not your hero Putin, no matter how many times you attempt your sleazy bullshit smears. You're fooling nobody. Remember that. So again blow it out your arse you morally barren shill.
Do you ever have anything positive to say about anything?
Not talking about this topic, just notice you never ever mention what is the better country/model/people/action/etc...
You only point out faults without ever engaging towards a (obviously known for you) solution.
I dont know man, I advocated for a ceasefire and finding a diplomatic solution to this conflict for years. apparently they were close to a ceasefire in April of 2022. later I remember some Democrats signed a letter saying to do diplomacy and were blasted by everyone and retracted (typical cowards) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022...
at this point, it doesnt look like Russia is going to stop until they take what they want.
but Ukraine should not have decided to side with the West and set themselves up as a proxy for the USA to fight Russia. they should have done what Zelensky was elected on promises to do, which is find an end to the civil war and try to get along with USA and Russia.
if anything, this is a lesson to any other country that does business with the USA in this fashion. they will be used and spit out and not even the pets will be spared.
what can they do now? no idea, it looks pretty bleak.
idiot
blackrock... follow the money
