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x the flop against a fish, and either x/c or x/r.
Are you sure it's a freezeout? The WSOP site says it's re-entry. Usually it's best to play the last flight since some pros have already qualified.
Don’t call raises against guys with 22 and 34 BB’s when you have Q-hi.
Haven't seen spoiler or posts after it. He can't have JXcc so this is QQ, 77, 88, T9s and if he has T9s he may have 87s and 33 as well so not evens out. He shouldn't have hit top pair because no Jx should be there given you have the Jc. There could also be nut flush draws. You are ahead of almost all of these, and almost none of them (with the exception of QQ and the less likely 87s) will fold to a small raise, and very likely won't fold to a jam either. I marginally prefer a jam to a small raise. Scare cards aplenty and you need to do a bit of work to get the money in, so whatever you do don't call, realistically a minraise looks as strong as a jam at this stack depth so really you should jam
Edit...now seen results...oh crumbs
Why such big bet otf?
Turn seems like best card to keep betting most 2p+ will raise flop.
River-I guess call. After checking turn your range looks very capped he might even jam A9, TT. Depends also on a player some will always bluff like this for nitty regs this is value line.
Bet big exploitable OTF, dont think can get 3 str value with this hand thats why x OTT.
Donk leads tend to be weak made hands, especially at that small sizing, im calling and letting him continue betting into me. As played, easy call.
In supersystem, doyle recommended donking out hands like sets on dry boards into good players because they will put you on a weak made hand and bluff raise you. Theres a certain group of older regs who learned this move from SS and will stack you in spots like this, but oh well.
This kid was maybe in 3rd grade during the boom. I'd be surprised if he had ever heard of SS or SS2 (Doyle gave me a signed copy for my bday of SS2 so that book has a special place in my heart). I would have snap-folded if this was the OMC who was sitting to my right and he sigh-shoved.
H1: Was played horribly by V in every imaginable way ... from the pf limp, to the flop check to the turn call. Just a cooler. If you are going to get sets to call your shove, you should do it all day and night even w/o the flush draw.
H2: Not much to add -- a eff stacks and OOP you either shove or make a pot committing pf raise.
Restating your math, the pot odds of the bet is always less than the alpha of the raise.
So if your initial bet is balanced, then there is no way to defend more then MDF facing the a raise, (assuming you always fold bluffs).
These two statements seem to be mutually exclusive. Did you formulate them correctly?
mdf_raise = 1 - alpha_raise
-----------------------------------------------------------------
alpha_raise > pot_odds_bet =: prob_bluff_bet
1 - alpha_raise < 1 - prob_bluff_bet
-----------------------------------------------------------------
==> mdf_raise < 1 - prob_bluff_bet = prob_value_bet
Therefore, Hero has the potential to defend more than mdf_raise by calling all of his value hands. In other words: Hero has to fold all of his bluffs plus some of his value hands to meet gto conditions.
Maybe I can help you a bit with db analysis, I'm trying to mess around with that lately. If you are interested pm me your discord. If you rather do it yourself, thats fine also ofcourse 😀 glgl!
Hey man, good to see you’re still active on the forum, hope everything is going well poker and life wise.
Of course I’d love take your advice, just pm’d you 😀
Why so small on River? I assume this looks weak online and live .. almost begging to get raised.
What's calling down after we go bet/bet? Sets?
Gotta go bigger on River and maybe be willing to fold ..
TBH if you're going to bet small/fold then I'd just take a Showdown and move on. I get it .. no reads, but the way to get reads is to see their cards 'cheap'. GL
No, I just wanted to see what other people thought and maybe generate a discussion.
I think if I bet small on this river, a good player might consider the fact that both flush draws missed. Betting big makes it it tougher to hero call.
If you bet small a guy with just an A would have called.
One pair Tx hands, JJ and 99-44
I agree with nath. With 88 and 13bb back I am pushing anyway, it wouldn't matter to me that the initial raiser was thwarted.
As a side note, this is why you should announce your raise and not just throw in a stack. If he had announced his raise it would have stood, regardless how many chips he put out.
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Raise bigger pre. You've got the BB, straddle, and 4 callers to get through. $70 is not nearly enough to raise there. Surprised you only got two callers.
Yes you should check flop, OOP and multi-way, on this flop, and most others. A c-bet here has little to no fold equity, and you can't rep very much for value. If the flop checks through, we can make a delayed c-bet on the turn.
As played, after we bet flop and get called, we should check turn, even when we spike the ace. We were bluffing. Now we're bluff-catching. Don't turn our good bluff-catcher into a bluff by continuing to bet.
Just check river, to induce V to bluff and bet all his worse hands for value.
There's almost nothing you beat when you bet the river and get called, unless V is hanging on with weaker AX, which seems unlikely after we bet almost 2/3 pot on turn.
whats the point of being defensive early in the thread esp when u have results that you're (likely) wrong
Yeah, had a bad Sunday here. But unposted in R1 also had Sparty h1/FT unders which hit, Duquesne ML and NCSU ML so that was nice.
JMU and Yale 2nd round no bueno.
Oh, also hit the middle on Arizona r1 ats.
Not thrilling, but I'd call. Also would consider jamming the flop, and would bet the river myself.
depends on your image sir - I think check call is the best play most of the time, but raising here is fine sometimes but kinda hard when you call $40, especially if they think you are tight.
It's a 4.5x SPR pot where OP's read is villain is trying to steal it preflop. We are so massively far ahead that doing anything other than continuing to give villain the option to keep bluffing would be a huge mistake.
As a cash game player primarily I bought one of the bbz courses and it was fantastic. I really like the way Jordan explains complex scenarios in a way thats really simple to understand and remember. They have a bunch of other coaches/courses as well.
