LeBron > Jordan GOAT Super AIDS Containment, solved #22999 post by Matt R. (addendum #23174)
Very impressed with the minute sequence where LeBron clearly lost the ball headed to the rim, heat got the ball anyway and scored, then he elbows his defender in the chin, drawing a defensive foul and stern talking to from the official and hitting a 3.
It's these ref assisted 5 point swings in close games that truly bring out the best in great players.
Link to post of why Elon Musk is the true GOAT: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showp...
The thread that will go on for years..........
vs.
It seems like both steals and blocks were stats that were easier to come by in the 80s/90s than in the years since? The all time leaders for both stats mostly come from the 80s and 90s.
Yes, definitely. It seems like without all games being televised and less scrutiny these things were just handed out like candy.
I think it’s very fair at this point to be skeptical of all steal/block stats from this era and earlier…probably subtracting at least 15% to be conservative and in a bunch of cases maybe much more.
Of course I read the entire article (cmon, basically catnip for an MJ skeptic like myself) the MJ fans are the ones that didn’t. Evidence of this would be your scorekeeper post suggesting it could have been a rookie - the article addressed this in detail. Had you read it in full, you’d not have suggested that.
I have not extrapolated that to anything other than his subjective stats were inflated, which I consider to be factual at this point. I also caveated it that it applies to many
Jaren Jackson saw 50% higher stocks at home - it's standard for players to have higher stats at home, so Jordan's steals being a little higher than the normal bump isn't notable because it can be explained in many ways aside from bad record-keeping... And bad record-keeping cannot be based on a 5-game sample - it's a completely insufficient sample even if the author showed his work, which he didn't.. So the article is a fraud and an attempt to remove accomplishments from MJ's career that Lebron won't be able to achieve...
Btw, if we can't rely on the steals, blocks, rebounds or assists numbers anymore, then the only arguable points in a hoops debate are winning and PPG... MJ has goat winning in the modern era by virtue of the most chips and highest chip-frequency (6/15 = 40%), and he has goat scoring by virtue of scoring the most with the best brand of ball, aka multiple instances of scoring title and championship (unprecedented)..
And the way we analyze defensive performance going forward is to see how much guys hold down their matchup and also look at their team's defensive ranking - MJ would rank #1 in this too (holding down his matchup's scoring & efficiency, while having good team defensive rankings as well).. MJ played goat individual defense (holding down his matchup) and obviously goat help defense, while being the goat defensive leader that fostered a culture of effort.
And bad record-keeping cannot be based on a 5-game sample - it's a completely insufficient sample even if the author showed his work, which he didn't.
a full season sample was provided, where mj had 100% higher stocks at home. if you read that article and truly believe "home stats were shaded" is equally or even less plausible than "mj went crazy with the home crowd" to nab an extra 2 steals and 1 block per game, i have a bridge.
^^^ Alvin Robertson and MJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0M2WPEk...
a full season sample was provided, where mj had 100% higher stocks at home. if you read that article and truly believe "home stats were shaded" is equally or even less plausible than "mj went crazy with the home crowd" to nab an extra 2 steals and 1 block per game, i have a bridge.
The bolded means nothing because everyone experienced higher stocks at home, but MJ was the only guy with high blocks AND steals, so his bounce was higher than the other 1-dimensional DPOY's on the list... See the chart above that shows Alvin Robertson with equal bounce in steals at home but Alvin wasn't a shot-blocker, so his overall bounce in stocks wasn't quite as high as Jordan's..
Similarly, the shot-blocking bigs didn't steal the ball much, so they didn't see bounce in steals like Alvin or MJ... Again, only MJ saw bounce in both because he's the only guy that was doing both (elite steals and blocks), so his overall stocks bounce is a little higher than the normal bounce that the other DPOY's got..
So that's the trick and the fraud that Tom Haberstroh and Klutch Sports perpetrated - Jordan's overall stocks bounce was slightly higher because he was the only DPOY that had high volume of both blocks and steals... The 5-game sample was used to say that Jordan's slightly-higher home bounce was due to bad record-keeping instead - but we know that it's actually because he was such a goat all-round defender (blocks and steals), while the other DPOY's on the list were 1-dimensional and only saw bounces in the one category (blocks OR steals).
And again - regarding the big bounce in home steals for guards like Alvin Robertson or MJ - they have 2-way burdens and therefore higher energy burdens - so apparently, when they lack the crowd boost on the road, they manage their higher energy burden by gambling less and getting less steals
none of that makes sense. he had both 2x steals and 2x blocks at home.
And again - regarding the big bounce in home steals for guards like Alvin Robertson or MJ - they have 2-way burdens and therefore higher energy burdens - so apparently, when they lack the crowd boost on the road, they manage their higher energy burden by gambling less and getting less steals
yep thats it
It seems like both steals and blocks were stats that were easier to come by in the 80s/90s than in the years since? The all time leaders for both stats mostly come from the 80s and 90s.
Fwiw and I strongly believe that , what happened in mj case is -> the triangle system .
Mj didn’t had to try to do evrything on the court anymore ( like LeBron had to do due to lack of good system ) because of the triangle so it cost him some stats but he got many rings in return .
That is probably why when LeBron leaves, the team Crumble (no system left) while when MJ leaves , the team Still can do ok cause everyone knows their role and played it for years and so know what to do .
MJ’s “home bounce” were literally fake steals, lol. He fed off the crowd to get steals that didn’t exist? WOW, the true goat!
Alvin Robertson could have easily benefited from home cooking too, I’d even say it’s likely, but no one will care to watch a bunch of his games and manually chart it out.
MJ’s “home bounce” were literally fake steals, lol. He fed off the crowd to get steals that didn’t exist? WOW, the true goat!
Alvin Robertson could have easily benefited from home cooking too, I’d even say it’s likely,
but no one will care to watch a bunch of his games and manually chart it out.
no one did that for MJ games..
it's amazing that someone claims they watched 5 games - doesn't provide evidence - just claims they watched 5 games - talks about a few possessions that were toss-ups - and that's it - case closed - MJ didn't win DPOY
the one play that Haberstroh highlights on broussard's show is infact a jordan steal and shown earlier itt.. again, someone claims they watched 5 games and that's it - not only are they believed, but 5 games is considered sufficient sample
someone could easily go back and watch 5 games of Lebron in 2009 and start cancelling out a couple assists per game for him, but the media wouldn't pick up the story because 5-game sample is absurd, and nitpicking toss-ups is absurd, and the media is run by Klutch Sports... It all started when Barkley attacked Lebron for wanting more playmaking help in 2017 and Klutch Sports attacked Barkley personally and aired dirty laundry.. Ever since then, the media has been scared of Klutch and began joining Klutch one by one.. I find people in 2024 to be incredibly weak in pretty much every way you can fathom.,
Twog demonstrating that he doesn't understand how percentages work one of the less surprising things to happen in this thread.
The article showed that every DPOY has a big bounce at home and so does every player and team - home records are always much better than road records because players perform much better at home.
The fact that Jordan's home bounce in his DPOY season was more than the normal bounce can be explained any number of ways other than bad record-keeping.... And certainly a 5-game sample that entails subjective nit-picking of toss-ups is a joke sample size and certainly not viable "evidence" of a fraud DPOY.
Ultimately, any subjective interpretation of previous plays will be just as fraught with errors as the original subjective call, so the entire idea that there can be a viable sample is wrong - the subjective stats like steals, blocks, rebounds and assists are set in stone - they are what they are - there's no reviewing them now.
Btw, the chart above that shows Alvin Robertson had the same home steal inflation (the crux of the entire analysis), which proves everything and kills the article... Abnormal home inflation of steals was the whole article and Alvin Robertson had the same thing - apparently, perimeter players that have elite steals and also 2-way burdens are different than stick figure bigs that specialize in blocking shots.
High steals players like Alvin Robertson and MJ have 2x steals at home
High blocks players like Eaton and MJ have 2x blocks at home
comprende?
Only MJ had high steals and blocks, so his overall "stocks" inflation at home was a little higher than the norm
The 5-game sample is meant to refute this and say that MJ's abnormal home inflation is due to bad record-keeping, but obviously, a 5-game sample isn't viable and no sample is possible because there's no reason to believe the new subjective ruling is
High steals players like Alvin Robertson and MJ have 2x steals at home
High blocks players like Eaton and MJ have 2x blocks at home
comprende?
Only MJ had high steals and blocks, so his overall "stocks" inflation at home was a little higher than the norm
The 5-game sample is meant to refute this and say that MJ's abnormal home inflation is due to bad record-keeping... But obviously, a 5-game sample isn't viable and no sample is possible because there's no reason to believe the new subjective ruling is any better than the original.. Subjective stats like steals, blocks, assists and rebounds are set in stone - there's no effective review of them..
no one's arguing alvin robertson's home steals weren't inflated. the entire point of the article is that there was a systematic bias toward stars at home giving them more stocks than they actually had. the data suggests mj's stats were hyperinflated that year (100% juiced vs conventional 50%) to lock up dpoy which he demanded before the season started.
the main point is comparing mj's defensive stats vs modern day players in the goat convo is not fair. look at last season's steal leaders to see the home/away split bias has been eliminated completely. but i'm sure that's because they just don't get energized by the crowd like mj did.
no one's arguing alvin robertson's home steals weren't inflated. the entire point of the article is that there was a systematic bias toward stars at home giving them more stocks than they actually had. the data suggests mj's stats were hyperinflated that year (100% juiced vs conventional 50%) to lock up dpoy which he demanded before the season started.
the main point is comparing mj's defensive stats vs modern day players in the goat convo is not fair. look at last season's steal leaders to see
Team records are always much better at home because players perform much better at home - Jaren jackson showed this kind of home boost in 2023 when he won DPOY and so did prior DPOY's - so there's no evidence the stats were inflated in prior eras.. Teams and players simply perform much better at home and always have.. Btw, the lower overall home inflation in the modern game is due to road trips not being the drain that they once were due to private jets and modern accommodations, while also having easier scheduling for road trips than prior eras (more days in between).. And fans are generally nicer and get thrown out if they bother players.
Ultimately, Jordan's slightly higher bounce at home than other DPOY's like Jaren Jackson or Alvin Robertson is because high shot-blockers see great boost at home on blocks (Eaton or Jaren Jackson), while high steals guys see a great boost in steals (Robertson), but Jordan is the only DPOY that is high in both categories - so his overall "stock" inflation (blocks and steals combined) is a little higher.. In addition being elite in both steals and blocks, MJ was the goat scorer, so these factors made him a unique DPOY with different stats than normal DPOY's.
The 5-game sample is meant to refute this and say that MJ's abnormal home inflation is due to bad record-keeping.. But obviously, a 5-game sample isn't viable and no sample is possible because there's no reason to believe the new subjective ruling is any better than the original.. Subjective stats like steals, blocks, assists and rebounds are set in stone - there's no effective review of them..
no one's arguing alvin robertson's home steals weren't inflated. the entire point of the article is that there was a systematic bias toward stars at home giving them more stocks than they actually had. the data suggests mj's stats were hyperinflated that year (100% juiced vs conventional 50%) to lock up dpoy which he demanded before the season started.
the main point is comparing mj's defensive stats vs modern day players in the goat convo is not fair. look at last season's steal leaders to see
Was 1987 inflated too ?
About the other 4 season with over 200 steals ?
And again , with basically the same stats in 1987 , why those stats in 1988 matters so much but not in 1987 for the dpoy ?
FWIW let’s jump to 2003 shrug .
40 years old on 1 leg , mj got 123 steals , finish 23rd in the league
AI finish with 225 steals .
Still over 200 .
What MJ seem to do early on in his career seem perfectly doable even if it could be a little inflated shrug .
For the blks issues , mj finish 16th in 1987 and 14th in 1988 .
With mj athletic abilities it’s perfectly possible he earn them and was far behind the league top blocker anyway .
3 players had over 200 blks in 1987 and 5 players had over 200 blks in 1988 .
What made mj special was the combo of those 2 stats of steal and blks (which Hakeem was able to do as well one year) but taken individually it was nothing so special .
In 1988 5 players plus MJ made over 200 steals …
In 1987 4 players plus MJ made over 200 steals .
It’s not like mj was a special case shrug .
Was 1987 inflated too ?
About the other 4 season with over 200 steals ?
And again , with basically the same stats in 1987 , why those stats in 1988 matters so much but not in 1987 for the dpoy ?
yes, those stats were inflated 25-50% as opposed to 100% in '88. i suppose '88 stats matter because they're the subject of the article and the year he won dpoy which looms large in goat discussions. to the rest of your post -- not arguing 200 steals in a season is impossible, just that mj's defensive stats were serially inflated. he was still a good defender.
Team records are always much better at home because players perform much better at home - Jaren jackson showed this kind of home boost in 2023 when he won DPOY and so did prior DPOY's - so there's no evidence the stats were inflated in prior eras.. Teams and players simply perform much better at home and always have..
go back last ten years of dpoys and there is zero home bias for defensive stats outside of jackson, an outlier who had 50% more blocks that one season, and hasn't replicated that in any of his other seasons. compare to jordan who consistently had 25-50% higher steals at home every season, 100% in his dpoy year.
Btw, the lower overall home inflation in the modern game is due to road trips not being the drain that they once were due to private jets and modern accommodations, while also having easier scheduling for road trips than prior eras (more days in between).. And fans are generally nicer and get thrown out if they bother players.
lol
go back last ten years of dpoys and there is zero home bias for defensive stats outside of jackson, an outlier who had 50% more blocks that one season, and hasn't replicated that in any of his other seasons. compare to jordan who consistently had 25-50% higher steals at home every season, 100% in his dpoy year.
Teams in the last 10 years have smaller gaps in home and road performance for obvious reasons that have nothing to do with bad record-keeping.
it's a documented fact that today's teams get more days off on the road than prior eras - this alone accounts for the lower road performance of prior eras and is a far better reason than bad record-keeping.. Today's era doesn't have to fly coach and it's the Curry spacing era of less physicality with cushy modern amenities, and friendly fans (players can throw fans out of the arena).
These are all better reasons than bad record-keeping - the modern era and Adam Silver have gone to great lengths to normalize the home-road transition.
Again, the record-keeping argument is a bad excuse for weaker road performance in prior eras and there's no evidence for that, whereas the evidence I presented about today's easier road environment are facts.. Teams have gotten much better at normalizing the road experience as time progressed - the numbers show this and this is a better reason for the gap closing on home/road performance than the imaginary record-keeping excuse which has no proof.
So this garbage has been thoroughly debunked and it's actually made people are realize that Jordan deserved DPOY in 1987 too.. He should have b2b DPOY's in 87' and 88'.. That's what this analysis has uncovered.
yes, those stats were inflated 25-50% as opposed to 100% in '88. i suppose '88 stats matter because they're the subject of the article and the year he won dpoy which looms large in goat discussions. to the rest of your post -- not arguing 200 steals in a season is impossible, just that mj's defensive stats were serially inflated. he was still a good defender.
Inflated stats for mj would only matter if only mj had inflated stats in those years right ?
It’s a relative game anyway .
If all players had some inflated stats it doesn’t really matter .
Mj deserve better then what he had in 1987 .
Especially when u compare to Robertson .
I think it’s clear dpoy or mvp isn’t base on just stats .
The narrative changes every years .
Doesn’t mean with lesser stats mj wouldn’t be voted dpoy anyway .
1987 #2 in steal , #16 in blks -> 8th dpoy , no DEF team ?
1988 #1 in steal ,#14 in blks -> 1st dpoy , DEF 1 .
Something doesn’t add up …
I don’t even understand why magic won mvp in 1987 over Mike by such a wide gap .
Mj had a worst team , more responsibility, played more games , more minutes , did better defensively, better offensively, etc.
Seem it isn’t just about stats shrug .
Inflated stats for mj would only matter if only mj had inflated stats in those years right ?
It’s a relative game anyway .
If all players had some inflated stats it doesn’t really matter .
Mj deserve better then what he had in 1987 .
Especially when u compare to Robertson .
I think it’s clear dpoy or mvp isn’t base on just stats .
The narrative changes every years .
Doesn’t mean with lesser stats mj wouldn’t be voted dpoy anyway .
1987 #2 in steal , #16 in blks -> 8th dpoy , no DEF team ?
1988 #1 in ste
imagine the energy it takes to average 37 and also goat levels of "stocks"
Since DPOY awards were so heavily influenced by this “stock” statistic, Michael Cooper must have had a ton the year he won it.
Of course I read the entire article (cmon, basically catnip for an MJ skeptic like myself) the MJ fans are the ones that didn’t. Evidence of this would be your scorekeeper post suggesting it could have been a rookie - the article addressed this in detail. Had you read it in full, you’d not have suggested that.
mullen:
Based on the sampled games we can very conservatively infer MJ’s stocks were inflated by at least 80 and most likely more during the DPOY season and other seasons as well.
Also, mullen:
MJ was probably awarded 300-600 more stocks than he deserved over the course of his career.
Yet here we have a passage from the article that mullen "fully read":
It’s important to note that after winning the Defensive Player of the Year award, Jordan’s home rates returned to normal and within the same range of his peers. Jordan would never even approach the 1987-88 home stats for the rest of his career, an outlier of outliers.
Yes mullen. Jordan definitely paid the statkeepers to give him fake stats. Him having a lot of steals is basically proof. Jesus Christ.
Evidence of this would be your scorekeeper post suggesting it could have been a rookie - the article addressed this in detail. Had you read it in full, you’d not have suggested that.
Ah, I thought this was going to be your evidence. Please quote the passages from your article that state Bob Rosenberg did not have a crew working with him when he was working as lead statkeeper for the Bulls. Or, if he did have a crew, what were a) their names, and b) years of experience for the games in question.
This should be easy since you also have evidence that Jordan paid them off. You know, from the article. That you read. Fully.
Has anyone posted links to the fraudulent games in question yet? I have not had time to fully catch up on the thread but I'm sure they have been posted multiple times by now. It would be interesting viewing, and critical, so that we're all working from the same set of premises. I'm glad that so many people in this thread were able to find proof so easily.
And anyways, although I'm sure these games are great viewing, because you've definitely watched them multiple times by now to ensure these subjective stats were counted accurately this time -- can we all agree that this doesn't impact Jordan's legacy at all, except for people ranking him by steal + block totals? (I honest to god didn't even realize he led the league in steals in 1987-88, so this whole thing is hilarious in my opinion. Anyone that has played basketball before knows that defense is far more than steals and blocks.)
Has anyone posted links to the fraudulent games in question yet? I have not had time to fully catch up on the thread but I'm sure they have been posted multiple times by now. It would be interesting viewing, and critical, so that we're all working from the same set of premises. I'm glad that so many people in this thread were able to find proof so easily.
And anyways, although I'm sure these games are great viewing, because you've definitely watched them multiple times by now to ensure these subj
yeah we all for sure have to watch those games multiple times to speak on this matter.
it impacts Jordans legacy only in the sense it calls into question his dpoy season. also efficiency stats like PER get thrown around a lot for cross generational comparisons and steals/blocks flow through there. jordans highest season PER was '87-88.
this article isn't some massive scandal. it doesn't call into question whether mj was great at defense or basketball. it notes a funny convention that used to happen, influenced star player stats, and is largely phased out.
per usual, debate ensues when fallguy mischaracterizes and hand waves everything in the article away.
[Quote=fallguy]Again, the record-keeping argument is a bad excuse for weaker road performance in prior eras and there's no evidence for that[/quote]
Evidence presented in article:
-Interview with scorekeeper from that era who says that is how it was and was expected, referencing quotes from other scorekeepera
-Games with more steals than opponent turnovers
-Two separate reviewers watch sample of '88 home games with outsized MJ steal stats and independently arrive at same, much-lower-than official number
-MJ had unprecedented home split differentials across the season that have never been duplicated
Fallguy evidence against scorekeeper influence:
-Other guys from that era had inflated home stats
-Fans energized players then, are nicer to road teams now
-Road trips were harder, teams flew coach back then
-Watching 5 games is a small sample
No because everyone's numbers were much higher at home back then, so the inflation happened to everyone - see Hakeem's massive home inflation from 1990 below, or Alvin Robertson's posted on the previous page.
it notes a funny convention that used to happen, influenced star player stats,
and is largely phased out.
1990 Hakeem
HOME...... 233 blocks... 103 steals... 131 assists
ROAD....... 143 blocks..... 71 steals... 102 assists
And we know that Alvin Robertson;s DPOY in 1986 saw him average 4.4 steals at home and 2.9 on the road (1.5 gap), which is similar to Jordan's 4.0 and 2.3 (1.7 gap) in 1988.
So it's clearly harder to play on the road in previous eras due to less days off and more back-to-backs - if you guys ever played sports, you would understand the amazing value of a day off and this alone accounts for the difference, even without considering other factors that made road trips tougher like flying coach instead of private jet, and hostile crowds (today's player boot unruly fans)
So easier road environments is why the home inflation is less in today's game - the NBA has largely normalized the transition from home to road, whereas road trips in previous eras were grueling ordeals that saw everyone's numbers crater.. Bad record-keeping had nothing to do with it and a 5-game sample where the guy didn't show his work certainly isn't a sufficient sample size to confirm bad record-keeping.
also efficiency stats like PER get thrown around a lot for cross generational comparisons
If you don't believe the PER or WS numbers anymore, than OBPM (the offensive side of BPM) is the best stat to use and here are the career results:
Career Offensive Box Plus-Minus (OBPM)
1. Jordan........ 8.81
2. Jokic........... 8.18
3. Lebron...... 7.50
So Jordan still rules by a mile... You can't make this stuff up.
But the reality is that the PER and WS numbers are still legit because we know that the home inflation of previous eras occurred for all players, and it was due to the grueling ordeal that road trips were back then.. Accordingly, the road stats of previous eras should be adjusted upwards to account for the grueling ordeal that they were back then compared to the smoother transition between home and road that today's game provides (more days off, less back-to-backs, private jets, friendly crowds, modern amenities and concerted efforts to make road trips easy for players).
Evidence presented in article:
-Interview with scorekeeper from that era who says that is how it was and was expected, referencing quotes from other scorekeepera
-Games with more steals than opponent turnovers
-Two separate reviewers watch sample of '88 home games with outsized MJ steal stats and independently arrive at same, much-lower-than official number
-MJ had unprecedented home split differentials across the season that have never been duplicated
The scorekeeper wasn't from the 80's and wasn't from the Bulls... He was from 1995 and from the Vancouver Grizzlies... He said that Stockton's stats were padded... whooptiwhoop... this has nothing to do with jordan.
And there were no games with more steals than turnovers - it was more steals than live-ball turnovers, so there's some shenanigans going on there and some subjectivity involved - again, there's no reason to believe the new subjective ruling is any better than the original subjective ruling, so subjective stats like steals, blocks, assists and rebounds are set in stone - there's no effective review of them.
And the 5 game sample review by 2 people that didn't show their work - gtfo... complete garbage.. It was designed to show that the Jordan's higher home inflation than the other DPOY's on the list was due to bad record-keeping and not MJ simply being a unique DPOY (the goat scorer and elite in both steals and blocks)... Guys that are high in blocks have home inflation of blocks, while guys with high steals have inflation of steals, but MJ was high in both - so his overall "stocks" inflation was higher than the normal DPOY from the list.. The other DPOY's were only high in one category, so they only had inflation in that one category.. So this accounts for MJ's higher home inflation and this is why the 5-game sample was allegedly provided, so the inflation could be blamed on bad record-keeping instead of MJ being a unique DPOY.
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I see the LeBron fans are juicing the difference to 200%.
Excellent work.
