2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
C'mon man, Clinton is too easy
“He knows he’s an illegitimate president,” said Clinton in 2019. She repeated this sentiment in 2020, telling The Atlantic the election “was not on the level,” and again when she called Trump’s win illegitimate. She piled on to this by saying, “You can run the best campaign, you can even become the nominee, and you can have the election stolen from you,” clearly referring to how she saw her 2016 campaign."
now do Stacey Abrams
This is the same error Gorgonian is making. I don't care what was warned or what you think about what happened. I want a clear winner on election night.
I know it's uber difficult to see past your own nose, but what you think about it is kind of irrelevant. We're debating what caused the 100m+ otherwise intelligent human beings to think the election was rigged.
This is what caused it.
I hope that doesn't happen again.
It won't happen again in Michigan. The entirely Democratic State House, Senate and Governor changed the rules so that mail in ballots can be processed starting 8 days before election day in districts that have more than 5,000 people. Then counting will begin at 7am on election day. Prior to 2020 it was set up so that all mail in ballots couldn't be processed until election day. This was the republicans way of having Trump be leading on election night.
Wisconsin though still has a majority of State house as Republicans who did not change the law. So mail in ballots won't be processed and counted until election day (after the polls open). Because its going to be close in WI it is likely we won't know who won until next weekend.
In PA processing and counting of mail in ballots starts at 7am on election day but no results can be posted until after all polls close. So this could be the MI disaster of 2020.
In AZ counting can begin when the ballot is received in the mail but results can't be posted until polls close on election day
In GA processing can begin like 2 weeks early but actual counting can't begin until 7am on election day
In NV Signature verification is done upon receipt. Counting begins 15 days before election day but results can't be posted until after polls close.
In NC processing begins a month before election where ballots are placed in tabulators. Counting though won't begin until 5pm on election day unless changed two weeks before by resolution to 2pm. Results can't be announced until 7:30pm on election day.
In NE, which may matter because of the 2nd District electoral vote, processing begins like 10 days before the election and counting begins the day before the election. Results posted after polls close.
Here are the rules for every state
Trump actually said on TV on election night in 2020 that he thought they should stop counting all mail in ballots and that he had won the election because at that point in time he was ahead (in swing states whose rules didn't allow processing of mail in ballots until election day). I wouldn't be surprised if that happens again this election.
As far as candidate strength I think Kamala is a stronger candidate than Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton. She just doesn’t appeal to this forum as much.
What do you mean by strength what is the strength? TO me Clinton was polished and answered questions and defined her positions really well. she did that in the primaries when it was a bloobath against obama, which she still lost, and then primaries leading up to trump and also against trump. even trump seemed okay like I said in those debates on certain topics. watch clinton and compar to harris primaries. to me, I think a good candidate is someone who can talk issues and get into the weeds of things without regurgitating "we need to be trump 2-3x on average per average. if likeness is a big factor then I need to take that into consideration but clinton still polled well in primaries after obama. I really want people to find the two deabtes of trump clinton as it was eye opening as much a of a **** show some of trump answers and lines were, he did well to hold his own and talk about certain issues that his base wanted
Can anyone point to any analysis about mail-in ballots this cycle compared to 2020?
not suyre about national but in PA Its a fact early voting for the reds have been a bit better than it was in 2o20 for them. take that with what you will
That means nothing .
Just means more people in aggregates voted.
In % trump got crush in 2020 .
If I remember correctly , he had a bigger defeat in % vs biden then those that got best by Obama .
The higher nominal number of votes would just actually enforce the confidence level .
Seeing how trump got crush has more voters participated is not a great look being crush so badly in % .
Two questions.
When is the next time a republican candidate will win the popular vote?
When is the next time, even with more people voting, a REPUBLICAN candidate gets more than 70 million votes? let alone 74 million ? cant use trumpo as your answer
Republicans are always up against it due to city and urban county votes this is just obvious. what is also obvious is my original point that it was quite wild that a republican candidate got that many votes still
This is what I think happens tuesday by midnight
I dont think we wait till next day to know where states are shaping
It won't happen again in Michigan. The entirely Democratic State House, Senate and Governor changed the rules so that mail in ballots can be processed starting 8 days before election day in districts that have more than 5,000 people. Then counting will begin at 7am on election day. Prior to 2020 it was set up so that all mail in ballots couldn't be processed until election day. This was the republicans way of having Trump be leading on election night.
Wisconsin though still has a majority of
ohhh thank you for the detailed update.
so republicans are to blame for procedures still being redicolous in some states.
I will check that claim but you are usually very precise so, supposing you are right, a very bad look for republicans
Here's an opinion piece from NBC (of all places) laying pretty much all the blame on Clinton/Dems circa 2016 for the election denial that happened in 2020. No one prosecuted them though, for that or far worse.
pleasure what do you mean with :
/Republicans are always up against it due to city and urban county votes this is just obvious./
it's not a mandate of heaven that gives votes from urban areas to democrats.
republicans can and should appeal more to slices of the urban population, otherwise they will always lose, urbanization won't stop
Here's an opinion piece from NBC (of all places) laying pretty much all the blame on Clinton/Dems circa 2016 for the election denial that happened in 2020. No one prosecuted them though, for that or far worse.
election denialism is protected by the 1a, why should they have been prosecuted?
Election wasnt rigged but I saw a tweet of someone trying to say cali is rigged becuase they wouldnt look at his info and verify
https://x.com/irrationalhenry/status/185...
Elon tried saying you can vote multiple times which to him means rigged but I assume there is more to the tweet than he is letting on, his info is still on the tablet and once checked in I doubt you can "vote" multiple times as they try to claim.
I live in a no photo id state not sure about the rest of you.
I will go on record and say If you need photo id for countless things like checking a hotel room, booking a flight, etc, then needing a photo id to vote isnt the end of the world
When is the next time a republican candidate will win the popular vote?
When is the next time, even with more people voting, a REPUBLICAN candidate gets more than 70 million votes? let alone 74 million ?
Parties are not static. If they aren't getting votes and winning elections, they will change.
The guy you're talking to is a single issue voter and that's his single issue. His friend in the sky told him to vote Trump because, you know, morals and stuff.
Hey D2 I’m not a single issue voter. I can’t think of anything I agree with democrats on. I don’t agree with republicans on everything either but I feel like they are the less of two evils.
Republicans are always up against it due to city and urban county votes this is just obvious. what is also obvious is my original point that it was quite wild that a republican candidate got that many votes still
g
What was even more amazing was Joe Biden, the clownshoes everyone made straight fun of for 8 years, got more votes than anyone in history despite not campaigning, like, at all.
pleasure what do you mean with :
/Republicans are always up against it due to city and urban county votes this is just obvious./
it's not a mandate of heaven that gives votes from urban areas to democrats.
republicans can and should appeal more to slices of the urban population, otherwise they will always lose, urbanization won't stop
Yes, but historically they just get decimated in those counties. maybe besides reagan but I dont have how he polled inthose urban areas comapringly. So until they can figure out what to get a chunk of that voter base then.
in MI Trump in 2016 got 30% of wayne county and I think 35% of oakland
Gorgonian made three errors.
The first error Gorgonian made is claiming people thought the election was rigged because Trump "claimed victory." The real reason they thought it was rigged is because, as the graphs I posted show, Trump was massively ahead with a growing gap the entire night in at least 2 swing states when they went to bed (and I believe all of them if memory serves), but when they woke up, Biden had received a couple hundred thousand votes and declared the winner in every single o
The entire country was warned that write in ballots were going to start being counted late and because there was so many of them the immediate Trump lead at the close of the polls was going to be whittled down to either a small win or a loss.
This was done on every network that was broadcasting polling results with the possible exception of Fox News ( I have no idea what they said during the election counts. I have no basic trust of Fox News because they have people on who constantly aren't telling the truth - yet they were one one of the first networks to declare AZ a Biden victory so maybe they were telling people that all write in ballots hadn't been counted). So if people wanted to know why the results weren't being forecast with Trump leading by a lot in many of the swing states then all they had to do was listen to the networks posting results.
There were absolutely no networks that declared Trump a winner before write in ballots had been processed and counted.
My guess is that many Trump supporters weren't watching the results on the networks. I have no idea where they get their information (aside from QANON) but whatever Podcasts, Influencers, Twitter Tweets, You Tubes, Instagrams, Tik Toks, Facebook posts, and friends they were talking to, if they were told that the results were in and that Trump had won, basically they were getting info from the wrong place. It would strike me that the rest of their life would be similar in that what they hear as news is basically going to be randomly true or false.
What was even more amazing was Joe Biden, the clownshoes everyone made straight fun of for 8 years, got more votes than anyone in history despite not campaigning, like, at all.
I'll admit I was surprised in the primaries he was doing so poorly early on but he bounced back after SC, I thought it was clear he was the best candidate to tackle on trump (dont want toget into the sanders is better debate with delusional users) harris was awful, amy was bringing nothing to the table, booker was bad, warren was okay, sanders was okay, tulsi was not it but biden still made the most sense to reach out.
Stupid thing to bring up but if someone were to tell me that if covid didnt happen trump has a better chance to get re elected , its not an insane take
What was even more amazing was Joe Biden, the clownshoes everyone made straight fun of for 8 years, got more votes than anyone in history despite not campaigning, like, at all.
trump won in 2016 because of low turnout, and because a small but relevant part of the population still wasn't ready to vote for a woman as "commander in chief" (especially among uneducated seniors).
trump was a bad candidate as proven by the differentials in vote he got in 2016 vs republican solid candidates for the senate.
For example he won Florida 49-47.8 .
Rubio won in the Senate 52-44.3 in the same year.
In south Carolina trump won 55-40.6, Tim Scott won 60.6 vs 36.9
in North Carolina Trump won 49.8 vs 46.1
Burr won 51-45.4
i could go on but you got the picture. he was a bad/terrible candidate (in the electability sense) that won anyway because the democrat candidate sucked a lot as well and because Americans usually look for change after 2 terms of the same president.
with a normal opponent and artificially increased turnout because of mail voting, Trump lost as expected
Yes, but historically they just get decimated in those counties. maybe besides reagan but I dont have how he polled inthose urban areas comapringly. So until they can figure out what to get a chunk of that voter base then.
in MI Trump in 2016 got 30% of wayne county and I think 35% of oakland
Nixon and Reagan wiped the floor with the democrat candidate so maybe that's where we should look at.
you can't give up college educated non married people completely in a society where more people go to college and less people marry
The entire country was warned that write in ballots were going to start being counted late and because there was so many of them the immediate Trump lead at the close of the polls was going to be whittled down to either a small win or a loss.
This was done on every network that was broadcasting polling results with the possible exception of Fox News ( I have no idea what they said during the election counts. I have no basic trust of Fox News because they have people on who constantly aren't tell
The entire country was not warned that huge dumps of mail-in ballots could swing the election at 5am on election night, or half the country wouldn't have been shocked by it. So either they weren't warned or the warning didn't register. Either way, this is just obviously true---a lot of people were shocked.
Gorgonian claiming everyone is stupid and ignorant except himself is par for the course; simplistic conclusions come from simple minds.
trump won in 2016 because of low turnout, and because a small but relevant part of the population still wasn't ready to vote for a woman as "commander in chief" (especially among uneducated seniors).
trump was a bad candidate as proven by the differentials in vote he got in 2016 vs republican solid candidates for the senate.
For example he won Florida 49-47.8 .
Rubio won in the Senate 52-44.3 in the same year.
In south Carolina trump won 55-40.6, Tim Scott won 60.6 vs 36.9
in North Carolina Trump wo
This has way more to do with going up against the Republican establishment in the lead up to 2016 than being a bad general candidate. He was the only one on the stage who could've beat Clinton. Who else was there? Jeb, Rubio, Christie? C'mon.
This has way more to do with going up against the Republican establishment in the lead up to 2016 than being a bad general candidate. He was the only one on the stage who could've beat Clinton. Who else was there? Jeb, Rubio, Christie? C'mon.
Rubio of course would have won with a bigger margin and I don't think this is a controversial claim
Nixon and Reagan wiped the floor with the democrat candidate so maybe that's where we should look at.
you can't give up college educated non married people completely in a society where more people go to college and less people marry
My thoughts are we will never see a reublican candidate do that again. If you want to say we will never see ANY candidate win 410+ delegates then I wouldnt argue either
My thoughts are we will never see a reublican candidate do that again. If you want to say we will never see ANY candidate win 410+ delegates then I wouldnt argue either
I think it's a low probability event in the near future but when/if it happens that's when you need to be really scared.
but my idea was more about the fact that there are no god-given rules about who gets urban votes
Here's an opinion piece from NBC (of all places) laying pretty much all the blame on Clinton/Dems circa 2016 for the election denial that happened in 2020. No one prosecuted them though, for that or far worse.
they didn’t do anything they could be prosecuted for. being salty about losing an election is not the same as taking legally sketchy steps to overturn it.
If you didn’t already know you’d never guess who he’s asking these “questions” to. lol.
