2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
If she loses, it's not due to sex. Sample size of 2, both deeply unpopular. You're talking about a candidate who finished dead last in primaries, then skipped the next primary you guys latch on to her sex.
Plenty of woman governors. Plenty of female heads of state in more conservative countries. Decades ago.
Maybe you're seeing the result of a horribly broken system.
Kamala def cooked.
Republicans ran on the platform of "The average voter is a literal ****** that we will endlessly lie to and they will love it" and it worked. Brilliant strategy. Great country
Trump is up less than 100,000 votes in PA currently but at this time in 2020 was up 200,000 votes and lost. Still too early to call PA.
Yeah, as bad as lead looks the areas left to report may cover though I'm not doing hard math of every county just eyeballing, they're just reporting slower in the SE.
Could be worse than my casual eye test but she looks reasonably live there
Here you see the craziness of true gamblers who want to run it till the end, why on earth would you do that if you bought at 40, 50 60 or 65, close the position now and enjoy the $$.
If Trump ends up winning and you bet on him because you also wanted him to win, you are going to feel good anyway even if you cashed out at 88 or 94.
What do you mean?
If you got Trump at 50 because you thought it was a good price, maybe you get out at 95 because you think it's now a bad price.
Which conversely should mean if you think 95 is bad for Trump, that means you think 5 is good for Kamala.
Pick your spots.
I think this is far from over, just based on what happened in 2020. Trump was way farther ahead then than now, but Kamala seems to be underperforming Biden in a LOT of counties in swing states.
Why the **** arent any of you mentioning she legit polled worse than Biden, Pete, Sanders, warren in her ****ing primary?
even biden in 2012 and clinton in 2016primaries polled way better than her stats wise compared to her
What do you mean?
If you got Trump at 50 because you thought it was a good price, maybe you get out at 95 because you think it's now a bad price.
Which conversely should mean if you think 95 is bad for Trump, that means you think 5 is good for Kamala.
Pick your spots.
Yes i think you should go out of trump at 92-93-95, and it's plausible that going Harris at 5-6 is +EV, but i was mainly thinking of position size,if you got into Trump at 50-55-60 you should take a lot of profit down the road to 90+ unless you are gambling for fun not for money
I linked before that the person who bet 40M USD on polymarket on trump moving odds from around 55-58 to 63-64 like 10 days ago was found to exist for real (for a while ppl thought it was PAC money to manipulate public perception), he gave an interview where he showed a complete lack of understanding of basic statistics used to justify his allin bet.
Trump is up less than 100,000 votes in PA currently but at this time in 2020 was up 200,000 votes and lost. Still too early to call PA.
I am a little confused as well about why Trump is so heavily favored to win Pennsylvania in the betting markets. If I had to place a Kamala bet right now, betting on her to win PA is probably what I would choose.
When the exit polls say that they are voting for the economy and his only economic plan is tariff then its absolutely the fault of the voter for being too stupid to understand that Trumps plan is objectively awful
I mean assuming he does what he did in 2016-2018 he prolly gives less regualtions, opens thing sup for businesses with cuts along with tariffs but neitehr candidte was A+ with explaining policy
legit worse for explainig policies in presidential histroy
