LeBron > Jordan GOAT Super AIDS Containment, solved #22999 post by Matt R. (addendum #23174)
Very impressed with the minute sequence where LeBron clearly lost the ball headed to the rim, heat got the ball anyway and scored, then he elbows his defender in the chin, drawing a defensive foul and stern talking to from the official and hitting a 3.
It's these ref assisted 5 point swings in close games that truly bring out the best in great players.
Link to post of why Elon Musk is the true GOAT: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showp...
The thread that will go on for years..........
vs.
It's always bad to lose with the preseason favorite or homecourt because it's below the goat standard of never losing with the preseason favorite or homecourt.
The problem is that Lebron fans and media don't actually judge him based on the goat standard - they let him drastically underachieve the goat standard and then claim it's somehow "good" (as you stated above), while this lesser caliber adds to his imaginary goat case.
Ultimately, Lebron lost 4 of 7 times as the preseason favorite and 3 more times with homecourt - that's horrible based on the goat standard that you claim Lebron upholds.
If you had bet $1M on LeBron's team when he was on the out-right preseason favourites you would be $3.3M better off
2021 - Lose $1M
2016 - Make $2.8M
2015 - Lose $1M
2014 - Lose $1M
2013 - Make $2.25M
2012 - Make $2.25M
2011 - Lose $1M
Total - Make $3.3M
Now if you did the same for Kobe you would be $2.2M better off.
2010 - Make $2.25M
2004 - Lose $1M
2003 - Lose $1M
2002 - Make $2M
2001 - Make $1.8M
1999 - Lose $1M
Total - Make $2.05M
^^° your math for Kobe is wrong (he's nearly even with Lebron) and Kobe actually wins when we remove your comparison of 20-year old Kobe to prime Lebron (remove 1999).
But the original point was that Lebron's skillset produces weaker chemistry that underachieves favored talent more often by losing with preseason favorites 4 of 7 years (57%), compared to 3 of 7 for Kobe..
And again, it's really 2 of 6 (33%) for Kobe because Kobe was only 20 years old in 99', so that doesn't count just like you don't count Lebron's lottery seasons at 20 years old with an all-star teammate, or his worst-ever performance in the 07' Finals or 08' ECSF (35% & 6 TO's).
Btw, the examples of "weaker chemistry" that Lebron's skillset produces are lower teammate assists (imposes spot-up roles), many bad fits, zero young player development, zero #1 offenses and of course the underachieving of favored talent (losing incessantly with preseason favorites, homecourt, multiple all-star teammates, etc)
Fun fact. If LeBron had of retired after his time after Miami, he basically has better career stats than Steph has to date.
It's always bad to lose with the preseason favorite or homecourt because it's below the goat standard of never losing with the preseason favorite or homecourt.
The problem is that Lebron fans and media don't actually judge him based on the goat standard - they let him drastically underachieve the goat standard and then claim it's somehow "good" (as you stated above), while this lesser caliber adds to his imaginary goat case.
Ultimately, Lebron lost 4 of 7 times as the preseason favorite and 3 mor
So, if you selectively select points it looks good?
Anyway the point was that LeBron has overachieved when pre-season favourite. You would have made good money if you had bet on it, which means he's done well. But, I know you struggle with easy concepts.
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No seriously, if you were an alien from outer space looking at these numbers, which guy (Lebron or MJ) would you think was 6-0 in the Finals, and which guy would you think is 4-6?
Career Finals alongside Lebron or MJ
Lebron....... 28 on 48%
Kyrie.......... 28 on 47%
AD.............. 25 on 55%
Wade......... 24 on 47%
Pippen....... 19 on 42%
MJ...............34 on 48%
How did Lebron go 4-6 with so much more help than MJ, while MJ went 6-0?
and Lebron had preseason favorites for 7 of the Finals??.. Accordingly, only Lebron's bad chemistry underachieves favored talent such as preseason favorites falling to underdog or loser for 6 straight years (except the Allen miracle).
Based on what standard
^^^ How many ball players in history has that applied to??... That's an extremely low bar for a so-called goat candidate - and therein lies the fraud.
Otoh, the actual goat standard is to never lose with any kind of favored roster such as 1 or 2 seeds, preseason favorites/homecourt advantage, all-star teammates, or in the Finals... Unfortunately, Lebron lost a half dozen times in each of these scenarios.
The lone exceptions for Jordan in the sea of met expectations was 1990 when MJ lost with an all-star teammate, and also the baseball year, which no one counts because he only played 17 games and it was his 2nd sport (his advanced numbers were Wizards-caliber).
No because Jordan basically never lost with any type of favored roster, such as 1 or 2 seeds, preseason favorites, homecourt advantage, all-star teammates, or in the Finals... Otoh, Lebron lost a half dozen times in each of these scenarios...
So when history looks back at Lebron and Jordan, it will show that the high-scoring ball-dominator produced weak chemistry that underachieved favored talent all the time, while the goat 2-point jumpshooter produced goat chemistry that met or overachieved expectation every time...
People forget that the Bulls were nothing in 1989 - Pippen averaged 14 ppg and then 9.7 in the ECF... So what if someone told Tex and Phil right before Phil was hired in 89' that "you guys are about to win 6 chips, two 3-peats and 6 for 6 in the Finals" - would that blow their mind or "meet their expectation", smh
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Regular Season
Playoffs
Fun fact. If LeBron had of retired after his time after Miami, he basically has better career stats than Steph has to date.
Fun fact - Lebron's stats produced possibly the most underachieving rosters of all-time by virtue of a half dozen losses with each of the following - 1 or 2 seeds, preseason favorites/homecourt, all-star teammates, and in the Finals.
Otoh, Curry's stats produced the best chemistry and brand of ball ever, so he overachieved his roster's talent by producing a goat team with a +2800 preseason underdog in 2015.
Furthermore, sidekicks like Wade, Kyrie, Love, Bosh, and AD are all better than Klay, while Jamison, Mo and even Zydrunas aren't that far behind - remember that Hornacek DESTROYS klay (see previous post), so Curry's brand of ball elevated a Mo-level player to Splash Brother status and HOF... MJ did this with Pippen too and many other sidekicks like Pau or Parker became All-NBA after they won - they were elevated to media accolade by the ensuing winning spotlight.
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btw do you guys realize that this guy Wemby thought he was Durant - he isn't and was never going to be - and now it's too late for him to develop into the Kareem or Duncan that he otherwise could've if he hadn't hard-wired in lukewarm guard skills and a soft game - skills that aren't good enough to work at 7 foot 5... Maybe in another generation down the line, but not this one
I give up. If you can't understand that if you are out-performing your odds you are going better than expected, I can't really explain the concept any better.
I'm done with this fred for 5 minutes.
I give up. If you can't understand that if you are out-performing your odds you are going better than expected, I can't really explain the concept any better.
I'm done with this fred for 5 minutes.
See, I think you guys are wrong. I don’t think fallguy is trolling. I think it’s a situation where he legitimately believes the stuff he is writing, but he doesn’t have the cognitive abilities nor math skills to actually understand any of this, so there is no way for him to “know” what’s right or wrong. Sort of like an extreme, weird mutation of the Dunning-Kruger effect. And he is so desperate for attention he doesn’t know how to stop.
How much money would someone make if they put 1 million in the preseason on the 2015 Warriors at +2800 odds?
You said earlier that 1 million on the 2016 Cavs would make 2.8 million based on +280 odds, so I'm assuming that +2800 odds makes 28 million???... And 1 million on Jordan in 91' makes 7 million based on +700 odds??
And if we remove Kobe's 1999 at 20 years old, he outperforms the odds better than Lebron too???
So everyone outperforms the odds better than Lebron, which is a drastic underachievement of expectation - no one expected Lebron to be bad at meeting expectation compared to his peers.
When Lebron entered the NBA, no one expected him to give up after Year 7 and team-up with opponents thereafter.. This failure is worsened by the aforementioned weak ability to meet expectation compared to his peers, such as a half dozen losses EACH with top seeds, all-star teammates, preseason favorites/homecourt, or in the Finals.. This falls short of peers and it's nowhere near the goat standard of never losing with favored rosters.
And we know why Lebron underperforms favored rosters more than his peers... It's because his skillset imposes spot-up roles and produces weak chemistry that underperforms favored talent.. Infact, the weak chemistry causes his preseason favorites to fall to underdog once the season starts, which is a black mark and also inflates any future victory as an "upset"... So there are many ways that Lebron's career is inflated.
You keep bringing this up and don't understand LeBron's results in those years as preseason favourite were actually good.
Anyway I asked you to do this exercise, but of course you didn't. So I did it for you.
If you had bet $1M on LeBron's team when he was on the out-right preseason favourites you would be $3.3M better off
2021 - Lose $1M
2016 - Make $2.8M
2015 - Lose $1M
2014 - Lose $1M
2013 - Make $2.25M
2012 - Make $2.25M
2011 - Lose $1M
Total - Make $3.3M
Now if you did the same for Kobe you would be
You either lied or miscalculated the numbers because Lebron drastically underachieved the odds... You don't make 2.8 million by betting 1 million at +280 odds like you claimed... You only profit 280,000 on top of your original 1 million for a total take of 1.28 million, not 2.8 million.
So your numbers are all wrong - you lose massively by putting 1 million on Lebron for each of the 7 years that he was preseason favorite - you lose 1 million for each of the 4 years that he lost, and you only make 280,000 for each of the 3 years that he won as the +280 favorite (he was actually a +225 favorite for 2 of the years, so that's only 225,000 for those years).
Accordingly, Lebron fails expectation by losing bettors massive amounts if they bet on him as the preseason favorite.. Furthermore, the GOAT standard is to never lose with favored rosters and Lebron failed this standard by losing with preseason favorites 4 of 7 times, or homecourt advantage 3 times, or top seeds 6 times (1 or 2 seeds), or 7 times with all-star teammates (4-7 record with all-star teammates), and the worst Finals record ever - the real goat never lost in these favored situations (except a 6-2 record with all-star teammates).... Furthermore, no one expected rookie Lebron to give up after Year 7 and team up with opponents thereafter, so this was a massive failure of expectation.
So the point stands - Lebron is arguably the biggest underachiever in NBA history by virtue of spearheading a trend of teaming up with opponents, while also having the most losses ever with preseason favorites or in the Finals.. He also has 6 losses with all-star teammates and 6 more losses with 1 or 2 seeds.. This is a massive record of underachieving expectation, and also failing the goat standard of never losing with favored rosters.
See, I think you guys are wrong. I don’t think fallguy is trolling. I think it’s a situation where he legitimately believes the stuff he is writing, but he doesn’t have the cognitive abilities nor math skills to actually understand any of this, so there is no way for him to “know” what’s right or wrong. Sort of like an extreme, weird mutation of the Dunning-Kruger effect. And he is so desperate for attention he doesn’t know how to stop.
Fidstar's numbers were all wrong and had a very simple miscalculation, as explained in the previous post - he either blatantly lied to protect Lebron (which is pathetic), or he's bad at math, just like you were about the team assists issue.
You also never provided your math background like I did - it sounds like you never went past your bachelors degree and on to graduate school, which means you lose to me.
To summarize - Lebron's skillset produces bad chemistry that causes him to drastically underachieve expectation, such as mostly losing with preseason favorites, all-star teammates, 1 or 2 seeds, and in the Finals.. So you guys fell for a fraud and the first step is to get past the DENIAL that you guys apparently have, smh, lol
You either lied or miscalculated the numbers because Lebron drastically underachieved the odds... You don't make 2.8 million by betting 1 million at +280 odds like you claimed... You only profit 280,000 on top of your original 1 million for a total take of 1.28 million, not 2.8 million.
This is completely and utterly wrong. Like you say a lot of very wrong things in this thread but to be this totally wrong about something so trivially easy to check is impressive even by your standards.
You're not even just wrong in terms of getting the return and profit confused, which is a common mistake, you've managed to be even more wrong than that. Betting $1million at +280 gives you a return of $3.8million and a profit of $2.8million if you win. The numbers you gave (a profit of $280,000 on a $1million bet) would be correct for odds of roughly -360 and I have absolutely no clue how you managed to think that they were correct for +280. You must think LeBron is much better than any player in history if you thought it was conceivable that the odds of him winning the championship before the season even started was close to 80%, which is what your numbers would imply.
This is completely and utterly wrong. Like you say a lot of very wrong things in this thread but to be this totally wrong about something so trivially easy to check is impressive even by your standards.
You're not even just wrong in terms of getting the return and profit confused, which is a common mistake, you've managed to be even more wrong than that. Betting $1million at +280 gives you a return of $3.8million and a profit of $2.8million if you win. The numbers you gave (a profit of $280,000 o
That's fine because I never bet before just like you guys never played ball before.
But the point remains that Lebron is bad at meeting expectation because gamblers make more betting on his peers like Curry, Jokic, Kobe or MJ - they met the preseason favorite expectation far more than him and he lost with favored rosters far more... He's also nowhere near the goat standard of never losing with favored rosters like preseason favorites (4 losses in 7 years for Lebron), or homecourt advantage (3 losses), or top seeds (6 losses with 1 or 2 seeds), or Finals losses (the most ever)...
Furthermore, no one thought rookie Lebron would give up in Year 7 and team-up with opponents thereafter... So these are all clear-cut examples of underachieving expectation that are much worse than his peers, and nowhere near the goat standard of being undefeated with favored rosters and winning the most organic way ever - only MJ built single-digit rookies into champions and never lost with favored rosters.
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^^^ Preseason odds and result for every season of MJ & Lebron thru 2020
And we know he missed expectation in 2021 and 2022
Lebron is simply BAD at meeting expectation compared to his peers or the goat standard because his skillset produces weak chemistry that underperforms favored rosters
Fallguy, describing in detail how players with assisted rates in the 75-90% range make them a role player:
There's nothing wrong with being a role player like Korver or Tristan Thompson with a 75-90% assisted rate, but the problem is that Lebron turns stars that are in the 50-60% range into role players like Korver or Thompson that are in the 75-90% range - he increases his teammates' assisted rate to role player levels..
Also fallguy, stating that Michael Jordan’s assisted field goal rate of literally 85-90% is scoring in the best, most fundamental way possible (off-ball).
"Michael Jordan North Carolina" and see that literally 85-90% of his buckets were assisted in college, literally.. Again, this is what most people don't understand about his game but it's the reason he was 6 for 6 - he scored the most in the most fundamental way (off-ball).
Does fallguy have the intelligence and extremely rudimentary mathematics ability to see the contradiction here? Stay tuned.
Would you say that your inability to score points and overall middling basketball career, despite being 6’7, was due to your lack of skill and athleticism? Or was it that you had no idea what to do when you were on the court because you don’t understand basketball at all?
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All Losses By 1st Options as Preseason Favorite Since Odds Began in 1985
LEBRON.............. 2011, 2014, 2015, 2021
SHAQ.................. 1999, 2003, 2004
KOBE'.................. 2003, 2004
BIRD'................... 1985, 1987
MAGIC................ 1986, 1989
EWING'............... 1994, 1995
DIRK.................... 2007, 2008
DUNCAN'............ 2006
BARKLEY............. 1995
ISIAH................... 1991
PIPPEN'................ 2000
KG........................ 2009
CURRY................. 2019
KAWHI................. 2020
KD........................ 2022
TATUM................. 2023
Losses with Homecourt Advantage
LEBRON.............. 2009, 2010, 2011
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2023
Losses with Top Seeds (1 or 2 seed)
LEBRON.............. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2017
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2008, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2019
Losses with All-Star teammates
LEBRON.............. 2005, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021
KOBE'.................. 2003, 2004, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2019
Losses in the Finals
LEBRON.............. 2007, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2008
CURRY................. 2016, 2019
4-0 sweeps or record losses
LEBRON.............. 2007, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2023
KOBE................... 2011
MJ has no losses with favored talent, while Lebron underachieves favored talent the most among any player in the last 25 years, and we know why - his high-scoring dribbling or point guard skillset has a high volume of unassisted buckets that leaves teammates standing around in spot-up roles, thereby producing zero teammate development, weak chemistry and perennial losers with every cast.
Fallguy, describing in detail how players with assisted rates in the 75-90% range make them a role player:
Also fallguy, stating that Michael Jordan’s assisted field goal rate of literally 85-90% is scoring in the best, most fundamental way possible (off-ball).
Does fallguy have the intelligence and extremely rudimentary mathematics ability to see the contradiction here? Stay tuned.
You just don't understand college basketball, because you never played Division I or in the "Dean Dome" at North Carolina like I did:
Did you see me for the first 3 seconds of the video? I was on the end of the bench to the immediate right (his right) of the guy relaxing and stretching his feet out..
So I played in the exact same gym that Jordan played in, and I saw his jersey in the rafters along with Worthy and Perkins.... We also ran Dean Smith's offense at FIU - we called it "North Carolina", literally...
Accordingly, I can tell you that Jordan played in a "system" where literally no one dribbled in the half court, which made everyone a role player with extremely high assisted rate - no one averaged over 20 ppg.... This team philosophy in college allowed Jordan to have the fundamentals and skills to be a great off-ball player in the NBA and almost certainly the greatest possession-closer or assist target of all-time.. Again, Phil and Tex figured that the triangle would "get MJ to pass" and shut down his scoring, but they didn't realize that he would easily maintin his goat scoring because his shots had always been highly-assisted, especially in college.
You just don't understand college basketball, because you never played Division I or in the "Dean Dome" at North Carolina like I did:
Did you see me for the first 3 seconds of the video? I was on the end of the bench to the immediate right (his right) of the guy relaxing and stretching his feet out..
So I played in the exact same gym that Jordan played in, and I saw his jersey in the rafters along with Worthy and Perkins.... We also ran Dean Smith's offe
That’s awesome that you got to play in the same gym that Jordan had played in. Would you say that you maximized your teammates assisted field goal rate when you were in the game? Is that good or bad, I forget. I remember it was bad when LeBron assisted his teammates, putting them in that range, but it was good when Jordan was in that range and the most fundamental way to score points. So both good and bad, I guess, depending on the player and the argument you’re trying to make.
Did you score a lot of points in the UNC game? It must have been a lot. I can only imagine the numbers you must have put up in college since you’re using your playing experience to argue that you know more about basketball than Phil Jackson and Tex Winter.
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All Losses By 1st Options as Preseason Favorite Since Odds Began in 1985
LEBRON.............. 2011, 2014, 2015, 2021
SHAQ.................. 1999, 2003, 2004
KOBE'.................. 2003, 2004
BIRD'................... 1985, 1987
MAGIC................ 1986, 1989
EWING'............... 1994, 1995
DIRK.................... 2007, 2008
DUNCAN'............ 2006
BARKLEY............. 1995
ISIAH................... 1991
PIPPEN'................ 2000
KG........................ 2009
CURRY................. 2019
KAWHI................. 2020
KD........................ 2022
TATUM................. 2023
Lebron lost the most ever as the preseason favorite or in the Finals.... 😮... 
He also has more losses with all-star teammates, homecourt, top seeds, sweep losses, and record losses than Kobe, Curry or MJ, so he's a "loser" compared to them and they're "winners" compared to him.
Losses with Homecourt Advantage
LEBRON.............. 2009, 2010, 2011
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2023
Losses with Top Seeds (1 or 2 seed)
LEBRON.............. 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2017
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2008, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2019
Losses with All-Star teammates
LEBRON.............. 2005, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021
KOBE'.................. 2003, 2004, 2011
CURRY................. 2016, 2019
Losses in the Finals
LEBRON.............. 2007, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018
KOBE'.................. 2004, 2008
CURRY................. 2016, 2019
4-0 sweeps or record losses
LEBRON.............. 2007, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2023
KOBE................... 2011
MJ has no losses with favored talent, while Lebron underachieves favored talent the most among any player in the last 25 years, and we know why - his high-scoring dribbling or point guard skillset has a high volume of unassisted buckets that leaves teammates standing around in spot-up roles, thereby producing zero teammate development, weak chemistry and perennial losers with every cast
That’s awesome that you got to play in the same gym that Jordan had played in. Would you say that you maximized your teammates assisted field goal rate when you were in the game? Is that good or bad, I forget. I remember it was bad when LeBron assisted his teammates, putting them in that range, but it was good when Jordan was in that range and the most fundamental way to score points. So both good and bad, I guess, depending on the player and the argument you’re trying to make.
Did yo
Similar to my math credentials, my hoops credentials destroy yours as well, which is why I'm annihilating you guys in this debate with superior insight on all sides that you guys don't have - it's not really a debate and more like me just informing you guys of the facts.
So accept that Lebron turns teammates into spot-up shooters - he literally decreases all his teammates' assists and has weak chemistry with every team, while jumpshooters increase teammates' assists and produce better chemistry/teams, thereby being the superior skillset.
It's quite simple and all the numbers are there to show Lebron's brand of "spot-up role imposition" craters teammates and underachieves the odds compared to his peers... In addition to underachieving the odds compared to his peers, Lebron's weak chemistry underachieves favored talent regularly by losing the most ever as the preseason favorite or in the Finals, while also having 9 losses with all-star teammates or homecourt.
The media doesn't realize this and mistakenly says that he elevates teammates when he literally craters anyone that isn't already an elite shooter like Mo, Kyrie or Korver.. History shows that he developed zero young players in 21 years and has a long list of weak fits because high-scoring ball-dominators have high volume of unassisted buckets that leave teammates standing around in spot-up roles - they're the only position with this affliction, so they're the worst skillset in basketball.
Three triple doubles in a row…
High-scoring triple-doubles by perimeter players have a high volume of unassisted buckets (ball-domination) that leaves teammates standing around in spot-up roles - this yields weak teammate development, chemistry and perennial losers with every cast.. The spot-up roles also lower teammate assists across the board, so the team cannot become a high assist team with a lot of ball movement like the teams that beat Lebron (Nuggets, Spurs, Warriors, Mavs, Magic).. The common thread in all of Lebron's playoff losses for the last 10 years is deficits in team assists.
It matters that high-scoring ball-dominators have a weak brand of ball because it underachieves favored talent more than any other skillset.. Specific examples of underachieving favored rosters include Lebron having the most losses ever with the preseason favorite or in the Finals, and more losses with homecourt, all-star teammates and top seeds than Kobe, Curry or Jordan.. And more 4-0 sweeps/record losses as well.
Finally, the game logs from 2020-2025 show that it's bron-ball against the weak teams and AD-ball against the top teams... People forget that unlike jumpshooters such as Curry or MJ, Lebron cannot drop 40 while the ball moves, so he lacks sufficient brand at carry-job volume to beat top teams and therefore needs all-time scoring help.. Specifically, in the Finals, Lebron needs an equal-scoring partner to attract equal defensive attention, so he never defeated max defensive attention (never carried scoring load in Finals), and he also never carried weak help over top teams (never beat a top 5 SRS team with weak scoring & efficiency from a sidekick)... But sure meh, 3 triple-doubles in a row..
Similar to my math credentials, my hoops credentials destroy yours as well, which is why I'm annihilating you guys in this debate with superior insight on all sides that you guys don't have - it's not really a debate and more like me just informing you guys of the facts.
I agree fallguy; you’re sure showing us. Just like your math credentials (calculus and business classes. Wow!), your basketball credentials are unheard of.
Just to clarify though: how many points and what were your numbers for the UNC game? And what was your assisted fg% (you’ve emphasized this is really important, I believe)? I don’t mean to try to force you to brag; I just think it would be useful, and help the validity of your argument, if you were to show just how good you were at basketball. That way when you say you played basketball, and therefore you know more about basketball than Phil Jackson and Tex Winter, it has more credibility.
Also, sorry but remind me again, is it good or bad for a player to have an assisted fg% in the 85-90% range?
High-scoring triple-doubles by perimeter players have a high volume of unassisted buckets (ball-domination) that leaves teammates standing around in spot-up roles - this yields weak teammate development, chemistry and perennial losers with every cast.. The spot-up roles also lower teammate assists across the board, so the team cannot become a high assist team with a lot of ball movement like the teams that beat Lebron (Nuggets, Spurs, Warriors, Mavs, Magic).. The common thread in all of Lebron's
Three triple doubles in a row (oldest player to ever do this obv) and three wins in a row with him doing it
You are missing quite extraordinary sporting history imo (that will be referenced and debated for decades to come), and there can’t be much of it left.
