Trump Economy and Poker
About six years ago I put up a post pointing out that the good Trump economy was probably very good for the poker games since it would create more excess income for many people which we would see in the poker games. Unfortunately, Covid came and, of course, I got attacked by some people for saying something positive about Trump.
Anyway, I expect something similar to happen again. That is, I expect the economy to improve, more people to take part in it, and the poker games to get better. This should take, in my opinion, about 18 months.
Anyway, I expect something similar to happen again. That is, I expect the economy to improve, more people to take part in it, and the poker games to get better. This should take, in my opinion, about 18 months.
How do you define "games getting better." Generally, the trend for a long time is for games to keep getting smaller, and rake higher. And I dont see this changing. So you might get an influx of more recreational players, which might make the games more fun, but I dont think it is going to result in some boom where a lot of people will start making a lot of money playing poker in casinos.
I dont know if poker will ever be what it was. But the more general point seems to be that a better economy could lead to more discretionary spending; and if you can deduce how people are inclined to spend their money moving forward you can position yourself to profit from this.
Economy has been really good in 2024, and yes I talk about "normal people" as well, poker is full of people who dabble in cripto and BTC has increased more than 100% in 2024.
The generic stock market had a great here as well.
Risk takers in general got rewarded handsomely in 2024 in the economy and those are the people who tend to play poker, not the bean counters on a fixed salary in stagnant sectors of the economy
The US stock markets are at all time highs, crypto is at all time highs. There are many jobs. The economy is the best it's ever been.
Trump wrecked the economy in the his first term and I expect the same or much worse this time. I've sold out of the indices at the top and am sitting on cash.
Mason,
as Trump and Musk are also pro-crypto, do you think it's also time for crypto-based online poker to finally make it big?
There was no measurable positive impact Trump had on poker then his incompetent covid response crashed the economy and sapped consumer confidence. You were “attacked” in that people made valid criticisms of your poor thinking. That the overall economy only is a huge factor in how well poker does is laughable and I’m sure correctly pointed out to you by people 4years ago.
Daily fantasy sports revenue almost tripled under Biden, pretending like that was because of the inflation reduction act would be as dumb as what you’re trying to do now. Even ignoring how dumb it is to tie poker to the global economy, consumer confidence crashed in Dec on fears if tariffs and other Trump related incompetence. Hard to predict if we’ll be in a recession but either way poker won’t si as well as daily fantasy dud under Biden.
I'll never forget the first few weeks MDL re-opened poker after covid and it was the only opened room in the country, it was packed. People were throwing money in the pot left and right. One guy who lost a big pot said "I don't care, it's free government money".
When Trump was president, our country was energy independent, and fuel and food prices were a lot lower than they are today. We also had a sealed border which secured our country even further. Rental prices have since almost doubled, and mortgage rates went from 2.5% to over 7%.
I think within one year of Trump's leadership we should see a big difference in the economy and the games should get a lot better with more people being able to afford to play.
There was no measurable positive impact Trump had on poker then his incompetent covid response crashed the economy and sapped consumer confidence. You were “attacked” in that people made valid criticisms of your poor thinking. That the overall economy only is a huge factor in how well poker does is laughable and I’m sure correctly pointed out to you by people 4years ago.
Daily fantasy sports revenue almost tripled under Biden, pretending like that was because of the inflation
In hindsight, 2p2 really messed up by not branching out into the online sports betting space, that industry is exploding even more than online poker did in its heyday. I imagine there's an enormous market for DFS strategy books.
It'll be good for the nosebleed games, but there'll be more short stacks at 1/2.
About six years ago I put up a post pointing out that the good Trump economy was probably very good for the poker games since it would create more excess income for many people which we would see in the poker games. Unfortunately, Covid came and, of course, I got attacked by some people for saying something positive about Trump.
Anyway, I expect something similar to happen again. That is, I expect the economy to improve, more people to take part in it, and the poker games to get better. This shou
I got over $3,000 worth of free money checks during COVID that were signed by Trump. I didn’t need it. I never lost my job during COVID (and my spouse works in health care; we got lotsa extra money due to unvaccinated Trumptards dying their unnecessary deaths) so I had a lot of extra money to blow on poker. Way to go, Trump! Trump made poker great again! He’s so great! Hooray, Trump!
Usually, this means players who are new to poker, or are trying a form of poker that they have little experience playing.
Generally, the trend for a long time is for games to keep getting smaller, and rake higher.
I agree that higher rake is a contributor to smaller games. But the fact is, that except for the period of time, known as the "poker boom" from 2003 to 2009 or 10, the vast majority of games have always been small. For example, when I first moved to Las Vegas in 1987, the predominant game was $1-$4 seven-card stud that had no ante and usually a 25 cent bring-in.
And I dont see this changing. So you might get an influx of more recreational players, which might make the games more fun, but I dont think it is going to result in some boom where a lot of people will start making a lot of money playing poker in casinos.
I agree that we'll probably never see games like we did during the poker boom, though I also think that even better games appeared in Los Angeles in 1987 when hold 'em first became legal. However, I do think that many games will improve.
I dont know if poker will ever be what it was. But the more general point seems to be that a better economy could lead to more discretionary spending; and if you can deduce how people are inclined to spend their money moving forward you can position yourself to profit from this.
thanks to Biden the 1-4 in 1987 now would be like 10-40 or something
Economy has been really good in 2024, and yes I talk about "normal people" as well, poker is full of people who dabble in cripto and BTC has increased more than 100% in 2024.
The generic stock market had a great here as well.
Risk takers in general got rewarded handsomely in 2024 in the economy and those are the people who tend to play poker, not the bean counters on a fixed salary in stagnant sectors of the economy
I'm not a stock market expert, but I understand that the stock market often anticipates the future. That is, just because the stock market has recently gone up doesn't mean the recent economy is good.
I also know nothing about crypto and don't want to comment on it.
The US stock markets are at all time highs, crypto is at all time highs. There are many jobs. The economy is the best it's ever been.
Trump wrecked the economy in the his first term and I expect the same or much worse this time. I've sold out of the indices at the top and am sitting on cash.
This post is just wrong. Under Trump we saw low interest rates, growth in real wages, good growth in the economy, record low unemployment rates, low inflation, energy independence, and then Covid came. My post years ago was made before Covid.
I'm not an expert on this stuff, so you may be right that's it worth selling out now
I'm not a stock market expert, but I understand that the stock market often anticipates the future. That is, just because the stock market has recently gone up doesn't mean the recent economy is good.
I also know nothing about crypto and don't want to comment on it.
stock market was going well even before Trump was expected to win (that was after the debate/after first assassination attempt), and even pre elections when everyone markets included believed it was very close to a coinflip.
surely after Trump won markets gained even more because it's clear Trumpmis going to be a better alternative to Harris for asset owners for various reasons, but the fact is we would be lying if we claimed that the economy was anything but buoyant even before Trump won.
things are going really well for a lot of people and even if pockets of the population are feeling some economic pain, economic things have rarely been better.
surely you can believe Trump will allow this to last for longer and/or do less damage when things will go bad as they do in cycles, and I kinda agree with that, but we don't need to keep up the facade of an economy that was in tatters in 2024 and Trump coming in as the savior.
I mean as long as that helped winning election fine, everything goes, but among us? nah let's admit the truth
Mason,
as Trump and Musk are also pro-crypto, do you think it's also time for crypto-based online poker to finally make it big?
I don't know enough about crypto to give a good opinion.However, I do understand that crypto is highly fluctuating in its value, which I think is a negative to a stable poker site.
There was no measurable positive impact Trump had on poker then his incompetent covid response crashed the economy and sapped consumer confidence. You were “attacked” in that people made valid criticisms of your poor thinking. That the overall economy only is a huge factor in how well poker does is laughable and I’m sure correctly pointed out to you by people 4years ago.
Except that my original post was made before anyone ever heard of covid.
Daily fantasy sports revenue almost tripled under Biden, pretending like that was because of the inflation reduction act would be as dumb as what you’re trying to do now. Even ignoring how dumb it is to tie poker to the global economy, consumer confidence crashed in Dec on fears if tariffs and other Trump related incompetence. Hard to predict if we’ll be in a recession but either way poker won’t si as well as daily fantasy dud under Biden.
I'm sorry, but you sound like a person who holds a lot of hate. If you think the economy will do poorly under Trump, and that turns out to be accurate, I think it will negatively affect poker.
In hindsight, 2p2 really messed up by not branching out into the online sports betting space, that industry is exploding even more than online poker did in its heyday. I imagine there's an enormous market for DFS strategy books.
Perhaps you're right. However, I never wanted to venture into those areas that I didn't understand. I suspect that if we had tried, even though other knowledgeable people did well, that would not have happened to us.
As for DFS strategy books, I'm not sure I would be able to tell a good one from a well written bad one. In the world of poker/gambling that our publishing company operated in, I think I was better at this than virtually anyone else.
If you have any doubts about this, just take a look at the large majority of books that other poker/gambling publishers produced.
This post is just wrong. Under Trump we saw low interest rates, growth in real wages, good growth in the economy, record low unemployment rates, low inflation, and then Covid came. My post years ago was made before Covid.
I'm not an expert on this stuff, so you may be right that's it worth selling out now
Even you should be able to look that up and see it's just wrong. The first three years of Trump pre Covid
. Last 3 years of Obama was 2.5%. Any poker boom you're assigning to Trump due to improved macro conditions is clearly in your head. You'll probably again see facts as an "attack" but there is no other way for us to improve your thinking abilities than simply pointing out your mistakes.
I got over $3,000 worth of free money checks during COVID that were signed by Trump. I didn’t need it. I never lost my job during COVID (and my spouse works in health care; we got lotsa extra money due to unvaccinated Trumptards dying their unnecessary deaths) so I had a lot of extra money to blow on poker. Way to go, Trump! Trump made poker great again! He’s so great! Hooray, Trump!
Again, my original comments were made before anyone heard of Covid.
Except that my original post was made before anyone ever heard of covid.
I'm sorry, but you sound like a person who holds a lot of hate. If you think the economy will do poorly under Trump, and that turns out to be accurate, I think it will negatively affect poker.
Yes, basic facts/thinking etc are hate, you're a victim or whatever emotion based thinking you want to use. I clearly said he had no measurable impact on poker THEN he botched covid. I have no idea how the economy will do under Trump. I'm just trying to teach you basic facts about the past, not predict the future which is way, way harder.
Even you should be able to look that up and see it's just wrong. The first three years of Trump pre Covid
. Last 3 years of Obama was 2.5%. Any poker boom you're assigning to Trump due to improved macro conditions is clearly in your head. You'll probably again see facts as an "attack" but there is no other way for us to improve your thinking abilities than simply pointing out your mistakes.You should watch some Thomas Sowell videos. One of the things he points out is that under Obama, the vast majority of new jobs created were of the low paying type.
You should watch some Thomas Sowell videos. One of the things he points out is that under Obama, the vast majority of new jobs created were of the low paying type.
Ypu should stop watching videos and read more if you want to have informed opinions. And you said growth was good under Trump. I don't think any video can change the fact that it was not good. If you want to change to some data free good jobs metric, you have to ask why you're so wedded to the notion that Trump was good for the economy and poker that you can't simply look at the data in a straightforward and honest matter.
Live poker games have never been more wide spread and prevalent across the world.
The reason you got criticism is because your prediction was wrong and instead of having a moment of introspection you are again trying to attribute something to Trump that, even if it came true, would objectively have nothing to do with Trump.
