Trump Economy and Poker

Trump Economy and Poker

About six years ago I put up a post pointing out that the good Trump economy was probably very good for the poker games since it would create more excess income for many people which we would see in the poker games. Unfortunately, Covid came and, of course, I got attacked by some people for saying something positive about Trump.

Anyway, I expect something similar to happen again. That is, I expect the economy to improve, more people to take part in it, and the poker games to get better. This should take, in my opinion, about 18 months.

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07 January 2025 at 04:50 PM
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by Playbig2000 k

Really?

Yes, really. And you know it.


by Mason Malmuth k

Growth was terrific under Trump until much of the economy got shut down because of Covid. Why don't you acknowledge this?

I quoted the exact number for growth under Trump before covid. How much do you think growth increased in the first 3years of Trump compared to last 3 years of Obama?


by Luciom k

because it wasn't, it was just decent like during the Obama post-crisis years

If an observer from another planet wasn't told that there was an election, he would think it was the same administration

Good charts Luciom


by Mason Malmuth k

I agree this was a problem. But it looks like a real effort will be made in this area under Trump 2, and hopefully the job I used to have gets eliminated.

Good luck if you think another round of tax cut will help in that .


There are approximately 500, 000 things that are higher are my list of political priorities than improving poker games.


Surprised there’s only 500,000


by Montrealcorp k

Good luck if you think another round of tax cut will help in that .

The purpose of taxes is to raise revenue for the government. In our history, there have been five tax cuts. They occurred under Coolige, Kennedy, Reagan, Bush 2, and Trump. Each time the government revenue went up. So I do think another round of tax cuts will be helpful/


by Rococo k

There are approximately 500, 000 things that are higher are my list of political priorities than improving poker games.

Only like 7 for me you must not play much.


by StoppedRainingMen k

Surprised there’s only 500,000

Even if it’s issue number 1, pretending like the games were great in 2018, terrible in 2024 despite the massive growth of dfs is just factually incorrect and made up. Even if it wasn’t, assigning causation is no different from peasants praising the Pharaoh for a good rainy season and high crop yield.


by Mason Malmuth k

The purpose of taxes is to raise revenue for the government. In our history, there have been five tax cuts. They occurred under Coolige, Kennedy, Reagan, Bush 2, and Trump. Each time the government revenue went up. So I do think another round of tax cuts will be helpful/

Yup revenue went up and debt increased even more due for the lack to tax revenues .
Want a chart ?
You have to check both sides of the ledger ….

860 billion beginning reagan era end up at 2.6 trillions in 1988 ….

5.7 trillions to 10.7 trillions for bush in 2000-2008….

Trump 19.8 to 23.2 pre Covid , 2020 -> 23.2 to 27.7 trillions ….

Are you one of those that believe owning more debt is wealth ?
That’s pretty much what they believe In 2008


Yeah that whole argument is post hoc ergo proper hoc. All non hack analysis shows the Trump tax cuts reduced revenue from where they would have been without tax cuts and ballooned the deficit. Maybe you can live with the deficit boom if you’re making a huge investment in the future or saving Western Europe from the Nazis. But Trump didn’t do anything like that. The only defense of the trump tax cuts is tax cuts are always good, but even then someone more competent should have been in charge and got more benefits from them.


We can see clearly with “revenues” how great they increased I suppose ?

Debt to gdp sky rocket under Reagan .
Continues go higher under bush sr .
Under bush jr the trend of debt to gdp went back up again (where is the revenues ?) despite Clinton reduced it previously !
Debt to gdp under trump did not drop at all despite massive tax cuts !
Where is the growth ?
Then debt to gdp went crazy high in 2020 with trump while Biden still stuck in Covid (and massive increase in cost due to inflation) went down again ….

Ah yes those tax cut for earning always work
Out great …..
They do only for the top 10% !!!

Mason is stuck on the false premise of trickle Dow economy and all that crap …


by Montrealcorp k

We can see clearly with “revenues” how great they increased I suppose ?

Debt to gdp sky rocket under Reagan .
Continues go higher under bush sr .
Under bush jr the trend of debt to gdp went back up again (where is the revenues ?) despite Clinton reduced it previously !
Debt to gdp under trump did not drop at all despite massive tax cuts !
Where is the growth ?
Then debt to gdp went crazy high in 2020 with trump while Biden still stuck in Covid (and ma

Perhaps the government should spend less. Wouldn't it be nice if government revenue went up and spending went down.

Also, I did spend six years working for the US Census Bureau, 1975-1981. Today, when I look back at it, even though I worked hard, I feel that much of what I did was worthless. I assume that if employed today, I would feel even stronger about how worthless much of this stuff is.


US tax policy seems far, far less important to the poker economy than: the DFS boom, the increasing popularity of streaming entertainment and videogames, and alcohol consumption declining nationwide.


by Mason Malmuth k

Perhaps the government should spend less. Wouldn't it be nice if government revenue went up and spending went down.

Also, I did spend six years working for the US Census Bureau, 1975-1981. Today, when I look back at it, even though I worked hard, I feel that much of what I did was worthless. I assume that if employed today, I would feel even stronger about how worthless much of this stuff is.

Of course .
I’m just showing tax cuts historically are almost never a good way to increase government revenues ….debt just go higher .

Many reasons for that .


by Montrealcorp k

Of course .
I’m just showing tax cuts historically are almost never a good way to increase government revenues ….debt just go higher .

Many reasons for that .

Except that government revenue did go up all five times. The fact that the debt increased is sad, but it doesn't change the fact that government revenue went up after each tax cut.


by Mason Malmuth k

Except that government revenue did go up all five times. The fact that the debt increased is sad, but it doesn't change the fact that government revenue went up after each tax cut.

I got a house of 300k with a debt of 150k
Am I richer when my house go up to 600k but my debt increase to 400k?
When debt to gdp go higher your revenue do not exceed your debt spending even if both go higher .

Debt is NOT wealth ….
Yeah in 2008 they though the way you think exactly like you today .
They though leverage equal growth ….

Who cares if your government revenues goes higher if your debt goes even higher ?


by Montrealcorp k

I got a house of 300k with a debt of 150k
Am I richer when my house go up to 600k but my debt increase to 400k?
When debt to gdp go higher your revenue do not exceed your debt spending even if both go higher .

Debt is NOT wealth ….
Yeah in 2008 they though the way you think exactly like you today .
They though leverage equal growth ….

Who cares if your government revenues goes higher if your debt goes even higher ?

I'm not sure what your point is. I've never mentioned leverage. But if your point is that government debt has gotten too large then I agree with you.


by Montrealcorp k

I got a house of 300k with a debt of 150k
Am I richer when my house go up to 600k but my debt increase to 400k?

Yes?

Of course if you can't keep up with servicing the debt you'll end up poorer. But by definition, you are richer.


by Didace k

Yes?

Of course if you can't keep up with servicing the debt you'll end up poorer. But by definition, you are richer.

only if you don't sell in the window from when you realize you can't service anymore and when you run out of options to pay


by Mason Malmuth k

Perhaps the government should spend less.

Like turning down that thermostat--turns out Jimmy was doing you a solid 😀

trump would've most likely just fired you.


by Didace k

Yes?

Of course if you can't keep up with servicing the debt you'll end up poorer. But by definition, you are richer.

Well on net you are not richer .
It’s just inflation ….
It worked so great in 2008 didn’t it ?

Ps: which is exactly why government debt always go higher , they can’t services it so they just print it .
Is printing money = being more wealthy or just printing to prevent the system crashing on itself ?

MMT (modern monetary theory ) been proven many times how it’s a failure over time .


by Mason Malmuth k

I'm not sure what your point is. I've never mentioned leverage. But if your point is that government debt has gotten too large then I agree with you.

Glad you agree .


by wet work k

Like turning down that thermostat--turns out Jimmy was doing you a solid 😀

trump would've most likely just fired you.

And mason would have thanked him for it

With tears in his eyes


by Mason Malmuth k

Except that government revenue did go up all five times. The fact that the debt increased is sad, but it doesn't change the fact that government revenue went up after each tax cut.

Again, not because of the tax cut. Federal tax revenue tends to increase in non recessionary environments but

Past tax cuts in 1981 and the early 2000s have led to widening budget deficits and lower revenue, not the reverse as some claim.

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