LeBron > Jordan GOAT Super AIDS Containment, solved #22999 post by Matt R. (addendum #23174)
Very impressed with the minute sequence where LeBron clearly lost the ball headed to the rim, heat got the ball anyway and scored, then he elbows his defender in the chin, drawing a defensive foul and stern talking to from the official and hitting a 3.
It's these ref assisted 5 point swings in close games that truly bring out the best in great players.
Link to post of why Elon Musk is the true GOAT: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showp...
The thread that will go on for years..........
vs.
Of the 14 players averaging >= 25ppg this season Tatum is bottom half of them (8th) in assisted FG percentage and among the 7 of those listed as forwards by nba.com he's only ahead of Luka. It's simply false to say that he's a highly assisted player even among #1 scoring options on their teams.
The "argument" I was referring to was specifically your claim that "their #1 bucket-getter isn't getting a bunch of unassisted buckets" (the hint is the fact that I put it in bold) and far from being "a st
Tatum had a
assisted rate on the Celtics' "dominant run" in last year's playoffs - that's viable - that's in line with the entirety of history for dominant champions.
Regarding Tatum's numbers this season, they're irrelevant because the season isn't over yet, so we don't know if a "dominant champion" will occur this year or not.... And based on the entirety of history, we know that if Tatum goes through the playoffs with his current assisted rate of 38%, then the Celtics won't have a dominant championship run this year, since 8 of 8 dominant champions required much higher assisted rates for the playoff run (47% or more).
But again, we can remove the assisted rate stat from the argument by simply saying that primary ball-handlers have never been the 1st option for the best basketball (dominant champion or dynasty), while jumpshooters or bigs were 12 of 12 times.... Tatum continued this trend... The vast majority of his shots are jumpers and he isn't considered a "primary ballhandler".
Now if we want to bring stats back into it, we see that "assisted rate" and also "time of possession" are most correlated with primary ballhandlers... There are zero high-scoring primary ballhandlers with career assisted rates of less than 40%... Zero.... And "time of possession" is even more closely-correlated with primary ballhandlers - it's the sheer time that a player has the ball in their hands during a game... Point guards dominate this stat because they bring the ball up and pound the rock - anything over 5.5 minutes = primary ballhandler, while the 5-5.5 range is hybrid guys like Jamal Murray or Curry, and below 5 is a jumpshooter or big.. Just run your eyes down this list and you will see that all the top guys for time of possession are point guards and ball-dominators (here).. Or if you want know what the highest time of possession ever was (12.2), you can look at prime Lebron in the 15' Finals (here)...
But again, we can remove the assisted rate stat from the argument by simply saying that primary ball-handlers have never been the 1st option for the best basketball (dominant champion or dynasty),
Steph Curry is the primary ball handler for the Golden State Warriors and they have done pretty well, given that they are one (of your huge statistical sample size of three lmfao) of your teams that have won 3 championships in 5 years since 1997.
Gee I wonder if the fact your argument literally does not apply to anything means it’s wrong?
fallguy,
I think what may have happened here is that you developed some kind of half-baked idea about assists and saw that it maybe kinda sorta applied to LeBron in a way that would reinforce your bias that he is a bad player. It’s no coincidence that his career average assisted fg% is ever so slightly below 40%.
There is nothing wrong with having ideas, but since you don’t watch basketball and have no understanding of data analysis nor statistics you have no way to verify if it is right or wrong. But you also have the personality quirk that you’re completely incapable of ever admitting you are wrong, so when a dozen different people have explicitly laid out the data, logic, and statistical inference proving that you’re wrong it requires that you shift the goal posts (probably at least 50 times at this point) and cherry pick only the tiny subset of data that supports your point while ignoring the rest.
I think that’s a pretty good summary if you want to put it in your next thread cliffs post.
fallguy right now
Anything LeBron is good at = Bad.
Anything LeBron is bad at = Good.
FG will selectively pick stats that prove it.
Now if we want to bring stats back into it, we see that "assisted rate" and also "time of possession" are most correlated with primary ballhandlers... There are zero high-scoring primary ballhandlers with career assisted rates of less than 40%... Zero.... And "time of possession" is even more closely-correlated with primary ballhandlers - it's the sheer time that a player has the ball in their hands during a game... Point guards dominate this stat because they bring the ball up and pound the roc
Ignoring all the handwaving and looking at the actual stats, Curry has been above 5.5 minutes for time of possession every post season that GSW won the title. His time of possession in the 2015 postseason was a full minute higher than LeBron's was when the Cavs won the following the year (and than Shai and Luka's number so far this regular season). There is no sane definition whereby Curry was not a "primary ball handler" during any of their championship runs. It's actually the case that Curry's TOP goes up significantly in the playoffs and they lean far more into your oh-so-hated primary ballhandler being the #1 scoring option style of offense when they have to play the best teams in the league.
^^^ % of shots that are 2-pointers, % of shots that are 3-pointers, assisted rate on 2-pointers, assisted rate on 3-pointers, respectively
Curry's career assisted rate is 48.4%... (source data)
2015........ 5.6
2016........ 5.8
2017........ 5.3
2018........ 5.1
2019........ 4.8
2020........ 4.5
2021........ 5.8
2022........ 5.6
2023........ 5.8
2024........ 5.1
2025........ 4.4
4.79 average for time of possession
Curry has been above 5.5 minutes for time of possession every post season that GSW won the title. His time of possession in the 2015 postseason was a full minute higher than LeBron's was when the Cavs won the following the year (and than Shai and Luka's number so far this regular season). There is no sane definition whereby Curry was not a "primary ball handler" during any of their championship runs. It's actually the case that Curry's TOP goes up significantly in the playoffs and they lean far
Remember that we're talking about the 1st options required for dominant champions (the best basketball), and Curry never had a dominant championship run as 1st option - only Durant did, and his time of possession during the 2017 Playoffs was 3.0 minutes... Not surprisingly, this is the most dominant championship run in history (16-1)... Durant was GOAT on that run.
So that takes care of the "dominant champions" aspect of "the best basketball"...
The other aspect was "dynasties"... Curry's career assisted rate is 48.4%, so he's always been viewed as a hybrid or "combo" guard, and certainly not a "primary ballhandler" - his time of possession or "hold-time" was only 4.79 from 2015 to 2025 (5.3 during the dynasty years of 15-19').. These stats are shown in the previous post above.
But again, the primary issue from the beginning was the simple mathematical reality that a high volume of unassisted buckets leaves teammates standing around in spot-up roles and lowers their assists, thereby causing low ceiling for team assists (low average ranking).. Accordingly, assisted rate is the stat that drives this argument, and Curry's assisted rate is almost 50%.. Otoh, the only skillset with a high-volume of unassisted buckets are high-scoring primary ballhandlers like Luka, Lebron, SGA and company, who produce low average ranking in team assists and were never the 1st option for the best basketball (dynasty or dominant champion).
Btw, since Curry's time of possession or "hold-time" is low for point guards, this gives teammates more hold-time and assists than they get alongside normal point guards, while Lebron's hold-time is super-high for a forward, so teammates get less hold-time and assists than they get alongside regular forwards.. Lebron's hold-time is literally 2 and 3 times the level of many frontcourt players.. This is similar to assisted rate where Lebron's abnormally-low assisted rate for a forward reduces teammates' opportunity to get assists, while Curry's high assisted rate for a point guard increases teammates' opportunity for assists.
Finally, you should think about what you're trying to say - you're saying that the greatest jumpshooter ever is the same type of player as Lebron.. That's the argument that you must make to refute what I'm saying, so I'm obviously right.. We can't just say things just because we wish them to be true, such as saying that Shaq can shoot threes, or Curry is a ball-dominator, or Lebron is good off-ball.
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same as the last
Anything LeBron is good at = Bad.
Anything LeBron is bad at = Good.
FG will selectively pick stats that prove it.
Ball-domination is bad - you shouldn't need me to tell you this.
This isn't an opinion because players that score large amounts without being assisted by teammates (low-assisted 1st options or "ball-dominators") have never been the 1st option for a dynasty or dominant champion (the best basketball).. We can even say that there's never been a "primary ballhandler" that was 1st option for the best basketball... The fact that your only counter is to pretend that the goat jumpshooter and most unique combo guard in history was actually a ball-dominator proves me right and also that you guys are shameful.
Relatively-speaking, the best low-assisted 1st options of all-time are losing players and don't have viable winning frequency (Luka, Lebron, SGA, Harden, Westbrook, Oscar) compared to the best highly-assisted 1st options (MJ, Curry, Shaq, Duncan, Jokic etc)... It's night and day.... Not remotely close... The best highly-assisted 1st options won boatloads of chips and are much better than the best low-assisted ones - this is proven by their superior winning frequencies, high average ranking in team assists, needing less help to win and having far better fits/chemistry.
Tatum's assisted rate was 47% on the title run last year, not 40%.
So you guys were always wrong about Tatum and my argument is stronger now that I noticed his higher assisted rate.
Regarding this season, if Tatum goes through the playoffs with his current assisted rate of 38%, then the Celtics won't have a dominant championship run this year, since 8 of 8 dominant champions required much higher assisted rates (47% or more)... 4 of 4 dynasties also required this, so that's 12 of 12 instances of the best basketball requiring highly-assisted 1st options...
Otoh, ball-dominators are characterized by low career assisted rates below 40% (Lebron, Luka, Lillard, etc), and they were never 1st option for the best basketball.. Their high volumes of unassisted buckets leaves everyone standing around and hinders ball movement, chemistry and provides a low average ranking in team assists..
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^^^ % of shots that are 2-pointers, % of shots that are 3-pointers, assisted rate on 2-pointers, assisted rate on 3-pointers, respectively
Curry's career assisted rate is 48.4%... (source data)
2015........ 5.6
2016........ 5.8
2017........ 5.3
2018........ 5.1
2019........ 4.8
2020........ 4.5
2021........ 5.8
2022........ 5.6
2023........ 5.8
2024........ 5.1
2025........ 4.4
4.79 average for time of possession
So in seasons Curry averages over 5 mins he's 4/8 winning Championships (with 2 other Finals). In season he is under 5 minutes he's 0/3 (no Finals appearances).
Got it.
Fallguy,
Why do you take a player’s average over some statistic and say “this is the only thing that can define a player” sometimes, but cherry pick a single value at other times?
Like when I pointed out LeBron has exceeded 40% assisted fg% 9 times in his career means he’s capable of having an assisted fg% over 40% when his role calls for it, you say no it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter because his career average was only 38.4%.
Or when we point out Steph Curry’s assisted rate was less than 40% in their most dominant 2017 playoff run, you say that doesn’t matter because Durant averaged 0.2 ppg more than him in those 17 games (well, 15. Durant didn’t play in all of them). Even though on average Curry led those teams in field goal attempts, usage, and points per game every single season they played meaning the averages overwhelmingly show he was the first option, not Durant. You say that doesn’t matter because Durant averaged 0.2 ppg more (because of his higher TS%) for 15 playoff games.
Or when we point out MJ’s career 3 point average was low, you say his average does not matter because when he shot a lot of 3 pointers his cherry picked average in those games was higher so you throw out his bad shooting games.
Or when we point out Tatum’s assisted fg% was only 40% in the year he won a ring which is low for a forward, the lowest of his career, and one of the lowest in the league for high scoring first options, you say that doesn’t matter because in the playoffs it was 47% so we can ignore the average for the season that has more games.
Just wondering if you’ve noticed the double standard here and wanted to comment on it lmao.
Tatum's assisted rate was 47% on the title run last year, not 40%.
So you guys were always wrong about Tatum and my argument is stronger now that I noticed his higher assisted rate.
Regarding this season, if Tatum goes through the playoffs with his current assisted rate of 38%, then the Celtics won't have a dominant championship run this year, since 8 of 8 dominant champions required much higher assisted rates (47% or more)... 4 of 4 dynasties also required this, so that's 12 of 12 instances of th
So in seasons Curry averages over 5 mins he's 4/8 winning Championships (with 2 other Finals). In season he is under 5 minutes he's 0/3 (no Finals appearances).
Got it.
Hahaha. So in one of fallguy’s dynasty examples (of a whole sample size of three), the team success is positively correlated with Curry ball dominance. It is not an exaggeration at all to say fallguy’s assisted fg% argument is possibly the most wrong argument in human history. It’s certainly up there with flat earth theory. Call it a tie.
Anyway, you've going to say "Tatum averaged 46.5 (nice round up by the way) in the playoffs".
Matt will need to give you another lesson on sample size and we'll all move on.
Lets go through an example of how to gauge a team's strength by looking at the assisted rate of the 1st option, team assist ranking, and time of possession of the top options on the team.
When we look at the Cavs, we like what we see.
Donovan Mitchell is at 39% assisted rate - this isn't spectacular but not horrible for the lowest-assisted player on the team... Garland is at a respectable 45%, and the kicker is that both guys are below 5 minutes hold-time.. That signals outstanding chemistry... Now when we look at team assists, we see a top 5 assist team, so the team looks strong based on these 3 factors.
The only issue that I have with the Cavs is that their guards are short - this might matter against a team like the Celtics, who have 2 stars that score and make plays like the Cavs' stars, except Tatum/Brown are 6 inches taller.. On many nights, small guards can cancel each other out, so a guy like Derrick White or Jrue might be able to cancel out Mitchell or Garland.
Now let's compare to OKC... SGA has an assisted rate of 27%... This means that we don't need to look at the team assists or hold-time because 27% from the 1st option means a low-assist team and high hold-time for SGA.... Ditto for the Mavs with 35% from Luka... These numbers mean that neither team will win this year - this level of assisted rate (large volume of unassisted buckets) from the 1st option requires exorbitant talent needs that aren't met by either team's roster.
Memphis is interesting because their leading scorer is a fantastic 2-way player that is highly-assisted (Jaren Jackson Jr), while Morant has a 40% assisted rate and only 5.0 hold-time right now, which is amazing for him... Unfortunately, this is likely a fluke for Morant, whose assisted rate is normally in the 20's... I think they need more reps with Jackson as the leading scorer - it could be a situation where Morant will take back over in the playoffs, which doesn't necessarily improve the team... They will be in the hunt but fall short to the top teams..
Btw, quick sidenote - if Denver could add just one good contributor to the team - if they could get a "2004 Rasheed Wallace-type" pickup, then it's over - they will win.... All Jokic needs is a hint of real help and he will win... He's the first 1st option to get high APG with a high assisted rate too (off-ball) - i.e. he's the first scorer to be one of the league-leaders in assists but actually play off-ball... I suspect that today's beginner format would provide similar inflation to other generational off-ball talents and good passers like Bird or MJ.
Accordingly, here's my predictions on the season... Boston again
That's a lot of words that are effectively saying that the best teams tend to have a balanced roster, with a balanced offensive attack, and balanced scoring options. Which, to utilize effectively, general requires intelligent ball movement (leading to assisted field goals).
Do you think good coaching tends to help facilitate said scheme? Do you think bad coaching can hinder it?
Donovan Mitchell’s assisted fg% is 39% this year. Before this, he tended to average low 30’s. Why are you using his single season number here? LeBron’s career average is 38.4%. He’s had 9 seasons over 40%. But you say those don’t count because they aren’t his average. But Donovan Mitchell is the complete opposite. Why?
Btw you’re sooooo close. Put some brain power behind your next response! I have faith!!!
Fallguy,
Why do you take a player’s average over some statistic and say “this is the only thing that can define a player” sometimes, but cherry pick a single value at other times?
Assisted rate is a great determinant of ball-domination, which in turn is a primary hindering factor for chemistry and brand of ball, and therefore team ceiling.
Like when I pointed out LeBron has exceeded 40% assisted fg% 9 times in his career
means he’s capable of having an assisted fg% over 40%
^^^ that isn't the requirement.
The player must be capable of having really high assisted rates, which allows their career average to be above 40%... Anyone with a career average of over 40% will have numerous years in their prime of over 45% and even 50% or higher.
Otoh, Lebron barely scraped 40% twice in his prime and ranged between 29-41 (36% average) from 2006 to 2021... This is nowhere near the capability required of 1st options on dynasties or dominant champions, which is why his career average falls below 40%... Everyone 1st option that is below 40% career average is a primary ballhandler.
Btw, basically every year that Lebron was over 40% was his lottery years or fossil years (04', 05', 21', 22', 23', 24', 25') - that's pretty telling...... And his horrific records during these seasons shows how bad he is at over 40% assisted rates and playing a little more off-ball... He's simply a horrible off-ball player that literally stands around when he doesn't have the ball - he lacks the hoops instinct, fundamentals, and jumpshooting touch to effectively play off teammates.
Or when we point out Steph Curry’s assisted rate was less than 40% in their most dominant 2017 playoff run, you say that doesn’t matter because Durant averaged 0.2 ppg more than him in those 17 games (well, 15. Durant didn’t play in all of them).
You say that doesn’t matter because Durant averaged 0.2 ppg more
Or when we point out Tatum’s assisted fg% was only 40% in the year he won a ring
The definition of "dominant champion" is a dominant playoff run, so the playoff assisted rate is the relevant stat, and Tatum's was 47%.... Meanwhile, Durant was the leading scorer for the 2017 playoffs, and his assisted rate was 56%.
So you're basically crying because everything fits perfectly and you're argument is basically "b-but it almost doesn't work perfectly".... Well too bad - almost ain't good enough - all the numbers check out despite how close a couple of them are.
Or when we point out MJ’s career 3 point average was low, you say his average does not matter because when he shot a lot of 3 pointers his cherry picked average in those games was higher so you throw out his bad shooting games.
We've never cared about someone that shot 29% on 0.8 attempts.
We've never cared about that and never will... "bailout volume" isn't relevant data (forced shots at the end of shot-clock from a player that otherwise doesn't want to shoot threes).
Today's shooting requires volume, and Jordan always shot well at today's volumes - if you could find multiple seasons or series where he shot poorly at today's volumes, then you could disprove my statements... But there are none... He shot 36.4% in regular season games of 3+ attempts, and 39% in playoff series of 3+ attempts... The only time he shot poorly in a playoff series of 3+ attempts was the 90' ECF - this fits the definition of a "one-off" or "fluke"...
Of course, since Jordan shot 36-39% at today's volumes with NO practice, so he would be over 40% WITH practice - this is intuitive.. His perfect jumpshooting stroke and his accomplishment of becoming the goat 2-point jumpshooter gives him further credibility that other guys don't have when considering how they would shoot in today's game.
The definition of "dominant champion" is a dominant playoff run, so the playoff assisted rate is the relevant stat, and Tatum's was 47%.... Meanwhile, Durant was the leading scorer for the 2017 playoffs, and his assisted rate was 56%.
Oh you’re not getting out of this one. The rest of your post is wrong too but let’s focus on this.
You defined TWO THINGS “dynasty” and “dominant champion” that you claim always meet your requirement of the primary ball handler cannot be the primary scoring option. If you want to be a little weasel rat and claim that Durant leading Steph by 0.2 ppg in the 2017 playoffs somehow makes him the first option (it doesn’t, but let’s give this to you for funsies), even though Steph led in FGA and usage, that doesn’t change the fact that for literally every other category that defines “first option” for every single season of their “dynasty” window that you defined as 3 championships in 5 years was 100% Steph Curry. Durant wasn’t even on the team in the first part of that window.
Thus, for the Warriors dynasty window from 2015 to 2018 Steph Curry was the Warriors first option AND he was their primary ball handler which completely refutes your primary ball handler cannot be first option for a dynasty argument.
Now go weasel rat go, time to shift the goalposts or lie about some more cherry picked stats.
This isn't true at all.
The Bulls had the most unbalanced scoring distribution ever because Jordan carried the scoring load more than anyone ever has (by far), and yet the Bulls were the GOAT team.
Similarly, Curry carried the scoring load for the 15' Warriors.... Shaq carried the scoring load in 2000, or Kobe in 09' and 10'... So tons of rings had 1 guy carrying the load because that's what the GOATS can do.
And that's one of the reasons that I don't rate Lebron as highly as others - he cannot carry the scoring load by virtue of never carrying weak help over top teams (never beat a top 5 SRS team with weak scoring & efficiency from a sidekick), and he never defeated max defensive attention (carried the scoring load on championship level)...
And I've explained why Lebron cannot carry the scoring load... He's too ball-dominant at carry-job volumes, so he lacks sufficient brand to beat top teams at high scoring levels.... This inability to beat top teams by carrying the scoring load requires elite producers and franchise guys like AD, Wade, Kyrie and more franchise guys at 3rd option too.... Otoh, highly-assisted players like Curry, Duncan, and MJ can drop 40 while the ball moves, so they can beat top teams with high scoring and win with weaker help like Klay, Parker and Pippen.
Fallguy,
“Balanced scoring options” and “balanced scoring attack” does not me an equal distribution of shots and points. It means equal opportunity to create shots based on how good the players are in the positions they are put in. Of course not everyone is going to have the same number of points as MJ, LeBron, or Steph.
But a great coach and a great offense will tend to put all 5 players in a position where they can make plays efficiently. A bad coach will not. This is why the best teams and dynasties tend to have elite coach, elite scheme, and elite roster construction. Think about it. You were almost there but I can tell you’re slipping.
You defined TWO THINGS “dynasty” and “dominant champion” that you claim always meet your requirement of the primary ball handler cannot be the primary scoring option. If you want to be a little weasel rat and claim that Durant leading Steph by 0.2 ppg in the 2017 playoffs somehow makes him the first option (it doesn’t, but let’s give this to you for funsies), even though Steph led in FGA and usage, that doesn’t change the fact that for literally every ot
Durant was the leading scorer for the "dominant title run" in the 2017 Playoffs, so your counter-argument that "0.2 is so close" still fails.
And lets be clear - if I was still using the terms "low-assisted 1st option" or "ball-dominator", you wouldn't be refuting me on the "dynasty" issue and whether Curry was a ball-dominator or not.... He obviously isn't.
But I guess I threw you a bone by introducing "primary ballhandler" into the conversation, since apparently you feel more comfortable lying that the Warriors system uses a "primary ballhandler" (it doesn't), or that Curry is a "primary ballhandler" (he isn't)... Accordingly, I'll go back to low-assisted 1st option, since it's hard to call someone a "low-assisted 1st option" when they have a 48% career assisted rate and 4.79 hold-time.
