2025 Trading Thread
I am wondering how to go long Venezuelan Oil and thought someone on 2+2 might know how and since there is no trading thr
Took a 3rd of my NVDA fading derangement syndrome trade off at a 135 handle today. Inline with "System Development with acrary" thread on elite trader. Pretty much the only thing I have ever read on the internet about trading in 20 years that was not a total negative.
If you want to understand the AI bubble here all you need to do is vibe code react and tailwind vs react three fiber.
The trading thesis to me is that there is a race between Anthropic, OpenAI and Google to get to "AGI" and everyone is basically pot committed. Assume one of these companies is going to claim "AGI" if they get there in reality or not and then work backwards from that to trade on.
It is why PLTR will continue to make new highs. We are in a massive bubble that has nothing to do with reality.
I saw someone on twitter say FED is back to buying bonds, QE, they were saying in the ten year. Is this true, was it a one time thing... Anyone know why, or what they are doing?
I am open to the fact that I may have been fooled on twitter, not unusal for me.
Unfollowing whatever idiot said this and never clicking on the "for you" tab is the way to go on the twitter
Unfollowing whatever idiot said this and never clicking on the "for you" tab is the way to go on the twitter
It would appear they are buying back their own bonds. Pretty hard to justify the massive print in M2 money supply in the past 5 months which is up about 500 billion. They usually try and paper over the debt, which is probably why stocks are going back up.
All non-log charts are garbage. ~E. Tufte
Yesterday was a nasty day in the bond market. I don't know much about the bond market but I talk crypto regularly with a professional bond trader and its the first time hes felt the need to mention how good or bad a day was
Baller from Morgan Stanley doing interview. Couple things I heard, Japan bond market much more sketchy than ours, if ours gets worse, possible for bullish for stocks... Fed will step in.
Sometimes these guys get it totally wrong but hey he gets paid really well for his thoughts.
Baller from Morgan Stanley doing interview. Couple things I heard, Japan bond market much more sketchy than ours, if ours gets worse, possible for bullish for stocks... Fed will step in.Sometimes these guys get it totally wrong but hey he gets paid really well for his thoughts.
Baller? That guy is historically wrong!
Oh is he? I felt so smart after watching that, damn, my bad.
It would appear they are buying back their own bonds. Pretty hard to justify the massive print in M2 money supply in the past 5 months which is up about 500 billion. They usually try and paper over the debt, which is probably why stocks are going back up.
Interestingly, M2 isn't Federal Reserve holdings of Treasury notes and Treasury bonds.
Here is the correct chart, which is, even more interestingly "Federal Reserve holdings of US Treasury securities." You can tell it is the correct chart because it has all of the correct words in it
Euro defence stocks have grown to be about a third of my trading account.
On the one hand I feel just for general risk management I should trim.
But on the other, this is a multi year multi percentage GDP growth industry, and I should just sit on my hands.
I guess I just have to hold these forever.
I don't know why my NBIS mooned today, but I'm not complaining.
Why shouldn't I pile everything I have into military stocks after the 5% commitment?
COIN and HOOD go up everyday it seems. HOOD now one of my top positions.
Bot some PONY shares for a trade this afternoon. We'll see how that goes. Toyota seems to be their largest holder.
A whole lot of nothing going on for me besides staying long AI with TSM and NVDA.
I got GIS at a 50 handle instead of some treasuries because it has got killed and the div yield was better than treasuries. I think I get the long term drift at this price for free + a few basis points on treasuries.
My fav trade so far this year though is Mexico and EWW. When things were US bullish frothy last year I just put a basket of of ishares ETFs in reverse order, EWW was the worst performer so I bought.
AI wise I am messing around Claude Code this weekend for the first time. I think all the current AI tools are fully priced in. I think this run here is pricing in Claude opus level language models.
Probably a good short on Palantir today that could be covered before earnings but I am just too AI bullish to take that trade.
Immediately traded out of PONY the next day, was a small trade anyway. Bought more RDDT instead.
HOOD up another $10. Breached $100 but immediately pulled back. I sold 8%.
wow, crazy I remember watching allin pod cast and the host vc founder talking about how he missed his exit on HOOD during the ipo and Chamath making fun of him and now its all time highs. More than a 10 bagger from the lows
Hoods the only game in town for an entire asset class
It was just two weeks ago now I became a postmodernist because of Foucault and finally understood the value of bitcoin and crypto after all these years.
It has value BECAUSE it is a giant pyramid scam but a giant pyramid scam should and does get a large valuation in a postmodernist, market fundamentalist, society of broke degens economically.
Trading wise the only thing I am hunting is a PLTR short. The perfect example of a meta narrative, market fundamentalist, unreality and that the price is always wrong. I think it is probably time to step back and express these trades with options.
Had a shoe shine boy moment with NVDA at work this week that I am going to override and stay long.
Best trade of the year though for me is AMD fading derangement syndrome in April. I am an Intel guy and I can't understand why the market loves AMD here so much but I am just going to hold.
The fact no one posts here and this isn't fun trading times as the VIX decays for me is just evidence to stay long.
I would be wary shorting something like PLTR that seems the higher quality of all the momentum names as a whole
I kind of agree even though we are in a bull market with record prices across many different assets the fun trading times of crazy sillyness going on hasnt really begun.
Some signs of it starting to happen in crypto but in 2021-2022 we had NFTs going for millions. I dont see stuff like that happening yet or the ponzi spac deals going on
So maybe we got a lot more room to run higher if they going to run the economy hot for awhile with huge deficit spending
friend's father in law is all in on rocket lab at 47 so tagged along for a little bit at 47.5
saw it go up to 49ish before falling to 44 now due to being downgraded by one analyst as a hold
so being the idiot i am i bought some more
I would be wary shorting something like PLTR that seems the higher quality of all the momentum names as a wholeI kind of agree even though we are in a bull market with record prices across many different assets the fun trading times of crazy sillyness going on hasnt really begun.Some signs of it starting to happen in crypto but in 2021-2022 we had NFTs going for millions. I don
PLTR basically provides government surveillance for governments where surveillance is illegal or cumbersome
Betting against an ever expanding surveillance state on a global scale is not a recipe for success
this is why I would never be a good trader or market and its smart if I would jsut put money in VOO
Lets take a look at AMAZON and compare it to say AAPL.
Amazon legit has better sales, better reach, better ratio, and the possilibilts they have to tap in AI, sports marketing/betting, Space whatever the **** they want , they could do or have potential to do.
and yet its valued under aapl. where if you compare the two its easy to see who the innovater has been in the last 5 years. the one thing AAPL has over amazon is global reach due to phone sales but other then that
I followed @tradenometry's UNH 230 puts for Aug 15 for under $1 a contract. Now its trading for over $4 contract. He thinks the stock is headed to $225 and possibly break downt o test covid lows below $200. I am so tempted to take profit but would be missing out on selling it for $30 if i sell now for $4.
