Israel / Iran thread

Nobody wants to get involved - it is a **** storm. Everyone has been waiting on Israel to do something after Oct 7.

Just once. Rest were Stockholm syndrome blowjobs

cant you have a single thought of your own ?

trump do one thing and its opposite and it always 100% amazing with no wrong doing ...

No. Whether you agree or disagree with the strikes, it's not even clear if congressional approval is required. It's far from the most illegal act any president has ever taken, and not even Trump's most illegal act.

he had a way more illegal one like 2 weeks ago. and pretty much every tariff. Look I don't particularly like war. But if you start it you may as well finish it especially against scumbags. I don't see how a tactical strike on the reason the war started is a bad thing

time for khamenei and what is left of his friends to live out their days in sochi. your quest to destroy israel is a total failure and the iranian people hate you. go away

Yep looking forward to regime change now

What exactly are people thinking is going to happen in a proposed regime change? Any particular plan for how it’s going to go down? As far as I know, the US is not prepared to oversee a transfer of power to a democratic government like Iraq and Afghanistan. You don’t just develop democratic infrastructure overnight after being bomber.

Is the hope here that there is some liberal revolution that could be fomented by taking out the right people and weakening the right institutions? Because I’m not convinced that’s actually on the table right now.

Man, people think Iran can be changed out just as easily as Iraq was, and we have a tardo in office that can't see anything beyond the possibility of building resorts in Iran.

Right, so you envisage the leadership saying "Ok, we can't have nuclear weapons, let's pack our bags and go now".

Excellent analysis, thank you.

Mission accomplished.

Listening to this circle jerk, they really seem to be overstating how secretive the mission was. Would have instilled more confidence by just dumping Kegsbreath after his Signal debacles.

Bombed it and didn't even take the time to properly manufacture the consent (my normally hawkish relatives were either against it or ambivalent when I asked them yesterday before the bombing happened). The TACO trend must really be getting to him.

I'm thinking the threat of a US attack would be more of a catalyst for a coup than what happened. Now it seems to be about over in terms of military objectives. But at the same time it's not like Khomeini rules through the consent of the governed. So removing his political muscle might be all that's required for some other faction to take over.

I understand we are all human so we have some built in need to belittle others to prove our superiority. And maybe there is some long term meta benefits from trolling Trump in this fashion.

But from a short term strategic viewpoint the whole TACO meme thing that liberals have embraced is probably going to cause a lot of unnecessary hardship, as Trump is exactly the type of person who would do something like start a war in response to such criticism. Just to prove his detractors wrong.

Well, IF they dont have a nuclear weapon they are probably more likely to try to buy or develop one now. So that is a change. Also, I doubt this will cause a regime change in the short term, but it can have some ripple effects that can change the world.

The rest of the world, including BRICS and European nations who have had relatively warm relations with Iran, doing pretty much nothing and offering the regime no support does send a signal to the IRGC that their behavior in destabilizing the ME is not acceptable. And if they continue down this path they will continue to be isolated.

Of course, I think IF Iran gives up on their imperial ambitions West, and instead pursues alliances North and East they will be fine. There are a lot of nations that would welcome alliances with an oil rich nation to combat Western hegemony, but not such a malevolent, destructive regime as the IRGC has been.

It’s funny to listen to you dudes herpaderping about the Iranian people overthrowing khameni like there’s any chance it happens

Even knowing khameni is absolutely despised by Iranians, how do you actually envision that happening when:

1. Iranian protests against the regime have gone on for like 20 years to no end or purpose
2. The only thing Iranians hate more than khameni is being bombed by Israel and now America

But ya, you know, take to the streets and all that

Regime change only happens as an outside military directive. Iranian citizens have no ability to pull it off

yep

Credit where credit is due, they were smart not to waste time on this step. It was important in the Iraq invasion to get Colin Powell on board because he was viewed as competent and a subject matter expert by 75%+ of the population. Whats the point of having anyone in this administration even try to make the case? Nobody is going to be convinced based on the testimony of the clown brigade of Hegseth/Vance/Gabbard/Rubio.

Yes. The irony of the Shah being overthrown is that he was actually loosening up oppression in an attempt to actually improve the peoples condition, which gave the Iranian people breathing room to organize and revolt. And the IRGC has learned from this mistake and is not giving up an inch of control.

Of course that is a danger of allying with Western nations* as opposed to nations like China and Russia. Is that Western nations require a certain level of internal good behavior (which could backfire); whereas China will not judge you at all or pressure you into any behavior that would risk your control, as long as the oil flows.

*Or at least was a danger. Trump is very much changing this dynamic to make us less judgmental with his open support of repressive nations like Russia, Saudi, Qatar, and NK.

Actually, this has been studied a lot and the consensus is that the most important component for a real violent revolution against an oppressive regime is having a large population of poor, violent young men that are willing to die for the cause.

Which Iran had a surplus of in 1979. But (unlike places like Yemen and Gaza) Iran's demographics have changed to a post industrial low birthrate society; so it just doesn't have the relative number of violent young men to make it happen.

Obviously, with Western democracies with liberal norms you can be peaceful, win the PC war, and basically shame them into giving in; but this tactic isn't going to work against the IRGC for obvious reasons.

it'll be an ambitious group of colonel types within the regular military or the IRG