2025 Trading Thread

You only have 1 contract ?

PLTR provides a team of extremely brilliant data engineers to do data transforms at large scale for a fee on existing data and on top they offer a whole lot of nothing outside their government network edges/contacts that is Gotham that was priced in a long time ago.

What the stock has is a great narrative because PLTR can be whatever the **** you want it to be in terms of whatever technology narrative you seek to get long . That is why to me it is a short. I am not just shorting it like an idiot though and get kicked in the face dead by a raging bull. I need to catch it at the right time , like right at the peak as it bucks some idiot sucker off.

Being priced to such absolute perfection here by the market, it is being short when that slight imperfection in the narrative is revealed. That is the trade that is super EV+ but maybe it takes 10 small losses to get that position. I haven't even fired yet on that trade and I am no stranger to trading PLTR both ways. I love the stock. I bought the IPO and sold up 150% a long time ago. I have shorted stupid euphoria. At this point I am hoping for the big after market move up on earnings here. I was hoping the VIX had kept descending into that situation but those were not the cards dealt.
Right here it seems super strong. For my brain, NVDA long strictly dominates PLTR on the AI trade. PLTR strictly dominates NVDA short.

Real trading wise I swapped out more US treasuries for GIS today at 4.98%. I love this GIS bear market. It it is not an arbitrage, statarb is such nonsense but it does feel like I am getting the stochastic drift of GIS over the next 10 years here kind of for free.

Of course, in a society that has accepted market fundamentalism as a type of religion that is impossible.

TMDX crushed and raised their numbers yet again. Still looks quite undervalued.

maybe wishful thinking but I think robinhood is gonna be a ****ing major player in the space. and if they ever get into banking 5 years from now or whatever, i think thats a good move

They're getting into banking as we speak. Not in 5 years.

It may take 5 years to become a player, but they will.

I picked up 500 shares in early April at around $100 or so.....

....but I sold $140 covered calls on it and then it eclipsed that number.....Rolled them out to January and need to roll them back again damn

Curious if anyone has any thoughts on TTD (The Trade Desk)? I understand the long term bull and bear cases, but am really confused about the large, one day drops followingQ2 2025 and Q4 2024. A slight miss (albeit first one in 37 quarters) on earnings (Q4 2024) and CFO change/customer tariff concerns/and only a slight beat on earnings (Q2 2025) shouldn't dramatically change the long term thesis for respective 40% drops?

holy **** I missed this weeks TTD drop

Just buy $APP instead.

UNH going back up =)

I sold all "fading derangement syndrome" AI trades into the strength Wednesday with NVDA, AMD and TSM gone. Took off a good amount of QQQ Wednesday. Held INTC, short PLTR 😀 Bought more GIS. Bought the most 30 day tbills this week at auction I ever have.

In the frenzy I took off BIDU up 13%. I think that was probably stupid. I think I sold google and amazon shares too. I cut DIA and SPY. The after glow of all that trading for me Wednesday was awesome. I just love trading.

I love GPT5 so much but we are really in a scary "AI" bubble. GPT5:

I assume we have to be able to abstract tic-tac-toe with language models before physics.

I also converted the book Networks, Crowds, and Markets by David Easley and Jon Kleinberg to audiobook this week. Can't recommend that book enough for the GTO poker/trading crowd here.

First week of Sept, god I haven't missed you at all.

$AEO was such a layup trade, even after the move from $10-12 was such a blatant buy.

TY Sydney Sweeney I like you even more now.

Ya, feel silly for missing that one Sydney Sweeney the goat. Had that stock in my tracker and was waiting for another dip lol opps.

Lulu should be offering her like 500 million right now

I don't think it fundamentally has anything to do with Sydney Sweeney specifically

Its certainly not because of any changes to their core business

looks like a bit of a squeeze but it might have something to do with her big natural tits getting the stock to go viral after that ad hit the stock pretty much doubled already

This is completely wrong, esp w/r/t the stock market reaction.

All of the Sydney Sweeney collection sold out in a week, some items in less than a day. They weren't even running those ads for a full Q yet. Xmas is coming up obviously as well. They sold $40-50m extra outfits, thinking it's not because of her [attracting more traffic, not just Sydney-specific items] is 100% wrong.

Stock is 13x fwd PE, and is still down 4% in a year in an up market. 52-week high around $23.

Whats interesting is that the IV and option prices have not increased that much. I think the odds of a gamma squeeze in $AEO are high.

The possibilities for them to increase sales by having her are enormous. She is approaching Taylor Swift levels of fame and it feels much more organic with her.

Yall kinda weird ngl

Not as weird as saying the big increase in sales in just a few weeks of the Q has nothing to do with the large promotional campaign they ran.

Which, you know, the execs on the call discussed in great detail, sorry about your ignorance of the easily obtainable facts.

Yeah man, it was all Sweeney and not the ridiculous culture war nonsense that culminated in the President of the United states advertising AE to his cult

Maybe you just had your head in the sand

Its Sydney Sweeneys birthday today! Im rooting for her and $AEO

Bought some armageddon puts today. Almost never do that. Not many but just had to scratch an itch. Still very bullish and still think we will melt up the rest of the year. Just have a nagging feeling something out of the blue is gonna happen. Fall tis the season for that! Seems like we are one notch closer to civil uprisings, seems like Isreal/Gaza drama is getting even worse, seems like we are one notch closer to Putin getting more aggressive, seems like we are one notch closer to NATO doing something stupid. Just feels like there is a black swan out there somewhere just itching to dive bomb the world. Hope its nothing!