2025 Trading Thread
I am wondering how to go long Venezuelan Oil and thought someone on 2+2 might know how and since there is no trading thr
Bought some armageddon puts today. Almost never do that. Not many but just had to scratch an itch. Still very bullish and still think we will melt up the rest of the year. Just have a nagging feeling something out of the blue is gonna happen. Fall tis the season for that! Seems like we are one notch closer to civil uprisings, seems like Isreal/Gaza drama is getting even w
Has in you bought at a very low strike price or you bought at current prices but bought many contracts to cover gigantic amount of loss ?
Has in you bought at a very low strike price or you bought at current prices but bought many contracts to cover gigantic amount of loss ?
Like I said just some way out of the money lotto tickets (Nov exp) to scratch a nagging itch. I expect these to wind up worthless. They are a form of self hate insurance being that if the bottom does fall out I would hate myself for not doing this 😀 These are totally divorced from my normal put hedging which is always there in various degrees.
Like I said just some way out of the money lotto tickets (Nov exp) to scratch a nagging itch. I expect these to wind up worthless. They are a form of self hate insurance being that if the bottom does fall out I would hate myself for not doing this 😀 These are totally divorced from my normal put hedging which is always there in various degrees.
Ah ok .
Did the same thing with gold miners .
I sold them too quickly after 3-4 years of holding them …..
Last 3 months like +30% up .
Bought some far away money put for crashing, protecting my gold position (not miners) .
I guess I’m wishing they go worthless too but kinda of pissy about it 😀
Just wondered because I hear people always say when you buy option u mostly buy at the money which I rarely do for puts.
Thx
godfather spoke to nvda to make something happen with intel?
once he bagged the biggest one, these other chip design companies all next?
If you copy traded me all year you'd be up way more than you are so, unironically, I guess
Many different ways to skin a cat, congrats on your equity wins this year
Can Elon destroy Netflix?, should I buy puts over here? I need money, what say you
What's everyone's thoughts on energy stocks, specifically as it relates to AI/proliferation of data centers? UUUU and VST have come up repeatedly in my (limited) research
A case for the Bears.
Do you have an AI app on your phone, I am liking grok. Use to use chatgpt exclusivly. I think Grok is gonna win, might be by next year, certainly within two years. Elon is spamming data center nvidia chips for max over kill traning model win. Anyway... lets play a game for the Bears. Give them love one time.
pick your favorite ai app. ask about the current leverage in the markets, how it relates to dotcom bust. Everyone is all AI, its insane. Everyone was all in internet, will change the world.... k , it did. But.. the investing part of it. The gambling. Just allow for the Bear mindset ask some questions, see what pops up. I did, it was interesting, very interesting.
Next year I'm learning how to invest. Right now I only buy Mag7 type stocks and I hold forever. I know I can do better.
Going long Venezuelan oil directly as a retail investor is pretty tough, mostly because Venezuela doesn’t have publicly traded pure-play companies accessible on major exchanges. PDVSA—the state oil company—isn’t publicly listed, and sanctions make any direct exposure basically impossible for individuals.
That said, you can play the theme indirectly:
1. Look at companies with exposure to Venezuelan assets (but limited due to sanctions).
Most major oil companies exited Venezuela years ago, but some still hold legacy claims or arbitration payouts. These won’t give you direct oil exposure, but they can benefit if sanctions eventually ease.
2. Consider oilfield service companies with global exposure.
If Venezuela ramps production in the future, service companies could see upside because they’re often first in line when a region tries to rebuild capacity.
3. Trade the broader thesis through EM or LatAm ETFs.
A few emerging market funds would benefit if political/economic conditions improve and oil output increases, even if they don’t hold Venezuela directly.
4. The simplest approach: play the global heavy crude spread.
Venezuelan crude is heavy and sour. If your thesis is that heavy crude from Canada becomes less favored and refiners look for alternatives, you could look at futures spreads or refinery stocks that benefit from cheaper heavy blends. Not perfect, but probably the closest retail proxy.
5. Keep in mind U.S. sanctions.
Nothing meaningful happens with Venezuelan production unless sanctions loosen. If you’re betting on an improvement, watch the geopolitical news closely—sometimes the trade is in the anticipation, not the actual outcome.
In short, there’s no clean way to “go long Venezuela” directly, but you can build a basket of correlated plays that track the outcome you’re betting on.
Not as weird as saying the big increase in sales in just a few weeks of the Q has nothing to do with the large promotional campaign they ran.
Which, you know, the execs on the call discussed in great detail, sorry about your ignorance of the easily obtainable facts.
$AEO crushed the numbers again, easiest double in < 4 months I've had in a while:
'Total revenue increased 6% to a record $1.4 billion, driven by total comparable sales increase of 4% with positive results across brands, Aerie comps +11%, ...
Momentum continues — raises fourth quarter operating income guidance to $155 to $160 million on comp growth of 8% to 9%.
“Strong momentum has continued into the fourth quarter, including an excellent start to the holiday season. We delivered a record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend, led by an acceleration in demand across brands and channels and underscored by outstanding growth at Aerie and Offline. We are focused on finishing the season strong and sustaining our success into 2026 and beyond,” [the CEO] concluded...
Previous 4thQ guidance of operating income of $125 to $130 million was based on comparable sales in the positive low single digits. For the year, adjusted operating income guidance rises to $303 to $308 million, with comparable sales in the low single digits from prior guidance of adjusted operating income of $255 to $265 million on flat comparable sales.'
SLV has hit its blowoff top I see.
I was just thinking the same thing, Silver has put in quite a double top here, interesting to see if we get violent profit-taking starting Friday.
I was just thinking the same thing, Silver has put in quite a double top here, interesting to see if we get violent profit-taking starting Friday.
Could be wrong? But I am out on Friday. Woulda been out last week but didn't want to take tax hit. Don't really have a lot but it was a home run and I have seen this movie before.
