2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Pretty swell of Diggs to wait until the fantasy season was over before being criminally charged with something.

DJ Giddens the Eno Benjamin of 2025.

(I also had plenty of Giddens - as well as overexposure to Nabers, Bowers, & Worthy 😀 )

But he also waited until I maxed playoff best ball with 16 % of him lmao

Haha I didn't think about playoff best ball. The good news is the NFL is very unlikely to take any action before the playoffs are done.

Giddens is one of my biggest lessons of the season. I need to do a better job of differentiating between real upside that hits at a low percentage and a bad bet. The fact that Giddens was a healthy inactive in the second half of the season means he was simply a bad bet. I should have never assumed the path was clear in the event of a JT injury for a 5th round rookie, regardless of preseason reports.

I made a lot of bad bets this season.

In the last 2-4 rounds of best ball, I think the order of importance is:

QB
TE
WR
RB

As far as what is most likely to contribute to your lineup and also be factor in week 17.

There are plenty of undervalued starting QBs/rookies that you expect to start eventually in the last few rounds. Stafford, Darnold, Rodgers, Dimes, Shough, Dart, etc.

There are lot of TEs that will be playing snaps. Chig, Ertz, Fannin, Waller, Theo, Schultz, Otton, Juwan, etc.

There are quite a few WRs that will be playing snaps. Wan'Dale, Franklin, Coker, Pierce, Slayton, TeSlaa, Horton (pre-injury and pre-Shaheed), etc.

RBs are pretty rough. Dowdle was clearly the best late round RB. Guys like Monangai, Rodriguez (post BRob), Woody, etc. were upside bets because they could win the job without an injury. Guys like Giddens, Brooks, Tucker, Brashard, were probably never really good bets. Late round rookies that are either specialists or guys that need multiple things to go right to even have a chance, especially day 3 rookies, are probably just +ev fades every year. Jaydon Blue was another bad one.

And then always chasing guys that are clearly in a 2 man backfields are good bets too. Allgeier, Mondre (though Gibson did exist), Spears, Najee (though maybe Vidal still gets involved), BRob (post trade), Corum (Jarquez made it a little muddy, but in hindsight, Corum just made so much sense).

I got my ass kicked this year, but I have a good read on what adjustments I need to make. I'm also going to cut back some volume and eliminate some of the contests I play, in the hopes of quality over quantity. There were times I was in so many slow drafts, I was just clicking buttons trying to get through all the picks lol.

Oh, and I also need to force stacking/correlation less, especially in the double digit rounds. For instance, taking unstacked Trevor then making sure I snag Dyami Brown was not a winning strategy. I would have been better off simply with unstacked Trevor and a different end of draft pick.

I'm reviewing a draft board from the beginning of September right now, and WR is just so ****ing disgusting throughout. I will definitely be attacking that position differently in 2026. And **** Brandon Aiyuk.

On to 2026!

lol

Do TEs even matter?

Doing some playoff best ball contests is there any reason to take more then 2 qbs? Have teams won with that strategy in past or is 1-2 optimal?

I think 1-2 is optimal.

In case anyone playing DK hasn’t seen it, I was scrolling the promotions last night and noticed a $25 promo for making a min deposit of $50 using Venmo. Free money if you ever plan to play DK in the future. You just have to opt in before doing it. DK dollars never expire.

It’s a shame UD doesn’t offer promos like this.

Always like a good year in review and look forward to next year. Early QB drafters definitely got punished, and there really weren't many landmines waiting at RB like there usually are. Saquon was probably the worst, and Jeanty if you were crazy enough to take him. WR was so brutal though. Chase, CD (when he played), ARSB all had reasonable returns but JJ, Nico, Nabers, London, BTJ, AJB, Ladd were all pretty rough takes.

What does first round redraft look like next year? I think not a whole lot different. In rough order:

Bijan
Gibbs
CMC
Chase
Puka
JT
JSN
Saquon
ARSB
Achane
McBride?

Are my rough top 12. Depends who is throwing to McBride.
CD, Henry, Nabers?, London, Irving, Bowers?, Brown, Cook, Kyren, Collins, Jacobs, Pickens maybe the next 12.

Puka will be interesting if Stafford and/or McVay retire.

I'll have 0 CMC next year, regardless of price.

No JT or Saquon in the 1st round for me. I'll gladly take either in the 2nd though.

Achane in the 1st is a little more questionable for me. With a QB that can push the ball downfield. Does he lose a lot of the checkdowns.

I think our takes would be pretty aligned. Got to be a year ahead of the curve and buy the dips.

JT will be a late first pick I think.

CMC and JT come with a touch more risk even if injuries are largely variance. I'd hammer Saquon in R2 if that's how low he goes.

All fair concerns, newguy. Except, I'd be shocked if McVay/Stafford retire with this roster, especially with Davante back again.

I think CMC is either the 1.01 or a full fade. He's either going to stay healthy and be the best player in fantasy or he will get injured. Just place your bets accordiningly. Bijan is the only one I would consider putting over him.

CMC
Bijan
Gibbs - Monty can be cut for $6 mil in savings post 6/1, but I'd be surprise if Campbell does that. If no Monty, I'd also consider at 1.01.
Chase
Puka
JSN
ARSB

After that, it's tough. I really don't want to take JT in the top half of the first. The lack of pass catching and offensive environment will still be concerns. The Eagles have a huge question mark with what they do at OC, but I guess it can't get worse. I do not expect Patullo to return lol.

Achane is a really good player, but what does it look like for fantasy without the Tua PPR scam? McBride is obviously awesome, but he wasn't getting there without the Kyler injury. If they run Brissett back, I'll be in. But if it's not Brissett, and it won't be Kyler, who will it be? That's a tough bet at the end of the first.

It might be crazy, but I kind of want to put Chase Brown next if the Bengals don't bring in anyone else. He might have the cleanest run out with a healthy Burrow.

Brown
Cook
Rice - Assuming Mahomes will be ready w1, or close to it. Kelce also possibly (likely?) retiring.
Achane - Pending QB situation.
JT

Then maybe

McBride
London - QB still a concern, but assuming it's Penix, I'm in. Clearly not fully healthy these last 2 games.
Jacobs - Clearly not himself since the injury.
Nico
Saquon - Still dont like it, but how much lower can I go?
Hampton - ?
Etienne - ?
Henry - ?
Kyren - Corum still there.
Jeanty - Can't get worse, right?
Olave - ?
Nabers - ?

CD - Pickens is a real issue for ceiling. He won't be this low in ADP, but I think it's reasonable to rank him here.
Pickens - I'm terrified of how the contract situation plays out, but I ultimately expect him back in Dallas in w1, happy or not.
Davante - ?

Bowers, Irving, Skattebo, AJB, Tee, Harvey, Hendo, etc. in there somewhere too.

This is a tough exercise right now. With the terrible rookie class, I'll mostly be betting status quo on the RB situations, assuming a lot of pending FAs will be back to their team with similar competition. It's possible Love is the only back taken in the first two days of the draft. We could also get + run outs with someone like Breece changing teams. Rico and Dobbins will be interesting. Same with KW3.

I have poor hindsight or short term memory with these things, plus I track college/potential impactful rookies less, but when's the last time we had a rookie with true pedigree actually pop off? I'm never the guy who wants to draft Jeanty last year, for instance.

I'm not buying Etienne either -- ran career-hot on receiving scores. Did rebound on efficiency. Dunno, Jags just strike me as a one year wonder.

Agree on McBride. Also agree on Brown/Cook are safe end of 1st options.

Rice is very interesting. I think he's pretty speculative at late first early second, but value on the 2/3 turn.

Nabers finished as WR7 in average PPG last year as a 2/3 turn pick. It does seem lately highly drafted rookies have disappointed more often than not, relative to ADP. Jeanty, MHJ, Bijan, etc. Chase crushed in 2021, but he was a 4th/5th round pick. I think he was the real catalyst for IRL highly drafted rookie ADPs being pushed up so much the last 4 years, especially WRs. Plus the growth of best ball, where rookies are pushed up for end of season upside.

Other than Love, I don't think you'll have to worry about high ADP rookies for 2026. Depending on landing spot and draft capital, I think Love could be anywhere from a 2nd to 5th round pick in ADP. I do think there may be 2-3 WRs drafted in the top 10-20 of the IRL draft, but none of them are considered elite prospects like Chase, Nabers, MHJ, etc. I doubt we see anything higher than round 3/4 ADPs, and probably not even that high. I'd expect more like rounds 5/6, depending on landing spot and draft capital, based on what I've heard about the top guys so far.

I'll struggle on Etienne if he's a 2nd round pick. But I don't think it's an unfair price. It's more of a bet on Coen than anything, as I think he's legit. But possible he has a year 2 slump. I'll have to see how the backfield shakes out. One thing I am confident on is that Etienne was legit injured in 2024.

It's hard for me to ignore Rice being 4th (PPR) in WR PPG average over the 9 games he played this season. Just one of the few WRs that I think can average 20+ PPG over the course of a season, especially if Kelce is gone. Over 18 games since his w10 bye as a rookie, and ignoring the game he was injured last season, he's averaged 18.4 PPG in PPR over 18 regular season games. I think the Chiefs will benefit from actually having a break this year and not playing deep into the playoffs. QB ACL isn't nearly as impactful from a return to play standpoint as the skill positions, so I expect Mahomes to be close to himself once he's out there. His scambling will be the most impacted, which should also be good for Rice. And also, please Andrew Reid for the love of god, replace Matt Nagy.

#1 is Bijan or a WR and nothing in between

Interesting comp.

The simpleton argument obviously is that CMC has injury precedence and Bijan doesn't. You're healthy until you're not, which is what you're saying. And it's pretty much chance if you sustain a serious injury. Having said that Bijan will be 24 years old entering this season and CMC will be 30. I think we have 1-2 years left of healthy elite production from CMC.

Yup, those 6 years of age difference certainly matter. If we add CMC's additional touches past his first 3 NFL seasons, he's up to 3,143 between the NFL and college, including playoffs.

But from a fantasy standpoint, I don't see any reason to think CMC won't continue scoring like he has been, assuming he's on the field. We should still expect the 49ers to be a top 10 offense next year with health.

Bijan also has that crazy twitch movement, which scares me sometimes. I'm afraid one his knees will eventually give. But as you said, you're healthy until you're not. And I'm just done playing this game betting against a currently healthy high ceiling player getting injured. Tons of drafters faded CMC this year. I wasn't one of them, but ultimately never ended up with him in managed and none of my best ball teams with him paid off, either.

I was curious about Derrick Henry. He has 3,661 touches between college and the NFL, including playoffs. But 94% is on the ground, which is more punishing; a breakdown of 3,442 on the ground and 219 receptions.

Well I'm not expecting Burrow or Stafford to move in 2026

I meant lose their starting QB to injury. It's just extra downside risk the very top of the RBs can usually survive that the WRs usually can't. Which is why I had CMC, Bijan, and Gibbs ahead of all WRs and also mentioned how Bijan/CMC performed with backups this year.

Chase was saved by Flacco this year. But without that, most Chase teams would have been dead by the time Burrow returned. If Stafford goes down, Puka will certainly be affected. JSN downgraded by losing Darnold. ARSB downgraded by losing Goff. And so on.

My favorite regular season contest was the best ball husky only one I made finals and finished 27th
If anyone of my receivers could have scored a TD or Metcalf playing would have helped me

Here was my team

My bad picks were ford and Harris and Kraft getting hurt sucked

Moving forward to playoff bball was is the best value contests to play on UD and DK? I wana do 100 entries

Brutal run out having those 3 RBs. I made the Husky 2 finals but finished 108/117 lol. I really liked the structure of that contest.

Started dk playoff best ball. With the 1/6 advance am I supposed to be going more advance aggressive than this, or is this still the correct style of strategy?

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My 20th and final DK draft , time to drink. Happy new year everyone

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