I checked it in gtowiz for 20 and 25 bigs in chipEV and we fold AQoff and AQs, AKoff is bottom of our calling range. It assumes another jamming range for UTG1, he has more 3bets there and some other shoves

(I dont know your software, does your calculation take the positions (table left to act) and UTG's raise into account?)

it's a live mtt, you can just jam 3 bigs later, and people may not even care and count your chips and fold, or they may not know how to react and act as if you jammed for 10 or 20 bigs if theyre nits anyway. a lot of good things can happen. weve plenty of room to wait and play (it's 8 bigs haha).

someone opens when we're in the big, we just complete with anything decent and outplay him super shortstacked with donkshoves etc postflop if we somehow connect with the board. we limp in the small with 7 bigs and they may think we limped aces (or whatever) and give up to our 1 big blind cbet on the flop.

generally we just want to realise better EV spots than being this marginal +chipEV and not only for ICM reasons but the tourney being soft. Which I think we'll be able to do here on average, even that shallow stacked

even if UTG1 jammed AJs Id still fold for the good reasons you gave. whole table still to act and UTG with naturally strong UTG range.

If we go with your assumptions [UTG1 not jamming aces, I think that's normally the case], I'd begin consider calling if UTG1 jammed as low AToff (but if he's that wide then he may also have KQs and maybe KQoff, A5s, ... which makes it better and better for us)

and then Id still pray for every other player on the table to fold and not show up with something

A list of small tricks, deceptions, ideas to gain more equity and create desired outcomes

feel free to add

when shoving but wanting folds, just write a number like 13666 for max fold equity

He just gave off freaky vibes immediately just look at his avatar. everything about his appearance was he's bluffing.

I guess his strong holdings dont need to protect, and would want to pick off more from my barelling bluffs and value before announcing themselves by a raise on turn or river? Doesnt this mean [assuming he's some legit reg] by 100% that he's been bluffing (with some backdoors)?

If we barrel some holding, then a raise from him on the river will surely mainly be strong,

and a raise on the turn? [any semibluffs?]

check and if youre ahead youre happy

a worse hand may never call you after that action [on top of being multiway] on that board

If I had a read on opponent being bad in means of a calling station, I'd consider betfolding b30%

@simon he's 6handed in a mystery bounty

In this hand his (emotional) reasoning was something along

Pre: strong hand, fears overcards, signals willingness to get it in VS the short stacks in the blinds, but maybe doesn't feel too good about it when for example flipping against overcards or going postflop with a vulnerable hand in comparison to just picking up the blinds right here and now

Thus 4x sizing pre

Flop: scared of 3 overs on Broadway flop, checks

Turn: feels weakness from your checkback and tries to protect again with a bet, though The Q may have strengthened your checkback range

River: rivers (to him subjectively perceived) nuts and goes for greedy max value from possibly strong but not so strong holdings that connect with the Broadway high cards on the board that you all may have

Goes for speech game that has already worked before

10 bigs

It's an amateurish player you're up against, he doesn't have any distinguished bluff, value, semibluff ranges, he just plays the hand he has, and he's not bluffing here (above reasoning in previous posts)

88 makes somewhat sense for a bad player to have here, it's coherent with his protective 4x preflop sizing but not oftenly one would choose to go into the line of betting turn with it on that board,

you're somewhat capped after not 3betting pre (though you can have slowplays as you did have here with AQ for the reason of 3betshoves from the shorties in the blinds) and checking back flop (do you ever check back two pair? He thus can somewhat exclude kq, qj from your range but not be completely sure of you not having better full houses).

All in all he ends up there with a weird but very strong (in his eyes probably even stronger) hand that beats us which is just coherent with how everything played out and the player he is

He may also at some not too high frequency show up with a queen there after your flop checkback, but then his 2x pot river jam will condense his one paired Qx range heavily around AQ, and 2xpot for a split will be too much when we're somewhat just guessing and usually he'll actually be having kings.

That board is too scary looking for weak players to go too crazy on it on average in vacuum.

He got his reward with same speech play in the previous hand, so when he's doing it again, it's rather because his system / nature is wired like that and will make him seek same reward with methods that worked before, than him trying some rationalized higher level deception based on previous hand that may or may not work.

It's an emotional and energetic way to achieve the desired result (a call) no matter any rational obstacles.

He's probably not a complete fish based on his speech play (fishy 4x sizing pre though but whatever it's live)

I'd just take it as a new situation (independent of the previous one moments ago) and fold. I think it's likely just the same again, if someone more versed doesn't agree please speak up

regards the live situation: "Ill show you if you fold", smiling, "anytime" unfortunately Im not knowledgeable in, I tried to look it up in my pdf of "reading poker tells" but cant find it.

Ill give you my estimation of what it's likely leading to / achieving:

it gives you a feel / energy of "oh he's nice, there's no danger, Ill be nice to him too and call him off" and then he gets what he wants, you paying him off

honestly, against that type of player [whose 3betshovingrange mostly will be AK / QQ / KK / AA], 2.2x raisefolding pre, as another option, will generate folds, and then doublebarelling post will get him off most of his hands and if we hit something, even better.

I believe if we can put him in that player bracket, then we surely can go for 2.2x - 2.5x

when it comes to regs: does anyone even limp a hand with a 10 big blind stack that he's going to call a shove with, and that he did not shove himself, that is not a premium? solver has a ton of limpcalls like Q8s, J9s, ... but how do regs play this spot in reality? I just shove these hands

Any read on him 4xing pre (into short stacks)? Does he do it every hand?

So he jams 2x pot on the river?

Can you estimate how good he can evaluate where he's at based on his past game? Is it some short of fish or does he have reasonable poker knowledge and makes reasonable plays besides this hand?

As of now, it's kings full or nothing, and he has no real reason to choose this line to bluff you off something if he has nothing, you check back flop so he'll oftenly fire 2x pot into a range that has a lot of trip queens which may not be the best idea for him if he wants to get folds after he also checked flop [deceivingly].

KK may check flop in his shoes since he blocks top pair continues.

its just a jam from a fish (or someone whose girlfriend called), he can have anything, overcards, air, overpairs, with your equity you snapcall.

for some players there Im sure it can be kind of an "protective jam" to save themselves from bad runouts and /or overcards and I'd expect to see them oftenly turning over JJ. But it's just a fraction of all cases and even then you have fine equity.

since I havent seen his hand I dont know of course if he's really been doing that, but I thought it's a possibility and if Im right that some fraction of the population would somehow attack my sizing in above spot (?)

then maybe preventive measures can be taken by sizing up or so [as long as one doesn't have a concrete read on villain]?

it's his gg stats of all the hands in that tourney, up to that point sufficiently significant 150 or so.

he must have folded AK or JJ or TT and so on.

UTG's tight stats (9% rfi overall) may suggest his UTG range is made out of a lot QQ, KK, AA, AQ, ...

having cutoff possibly being able to categorise that, with the BB (me) also in the hand on a wet flop, would he want to raise his flushdraws aiming for fold equity against two opps?

cutoff's queens will normally be outkicked by UTG's queens, so if he realizes that, he has less incentive to raise anything below AQ (and even that) on the flop.

I came to the conclusion that most of the time we're in bad shape and folded [also out of position].

We're sometimes ahead, for example if cutoff raises some flushdraw or straight + flushdraw.

I wondered in such a case about the optimal play in cutoff's shoes (also if he had a nutflushdraw or if we were deeper stacked, and assuming a more standard UTG rfi range). Maybe someone knows.

tight player (14% vpip, 9% rfi) opens UTG, cutoff who appeared considerate calls, I complete in the big with AQoff.

our stacks are in the range of 10 to 25 bigs.

UTG's flop cbet is raised by cutoff. I fold top tair top kicker with the backdoor nutflushdraw.

Is it too much hand too fold?

How do you see cutoff's range?

stage: itm last 15%

I complete in the big with A6s having around 10 bigs. We see the flop threeway with two average recs / regs in midpositions.

on the king high broadway flop we hold the nutflushdraw.

Donkshove for our stack which is around pot, or go into another line?

If I donkshoved flop I would have definitely avoided complex decisions on later streets, and maybe that's the most important reason already

Some average or bad player limps his 10BB stack in the SB into my BB, I have A6off. we're itm, last 10%.

In general Id like to exploit here by just raising and not risking too many chips with a shove where the latter is standard solver play.

If I raise him to 3 bigs and he 3betshoves, we kind of end up getting chipEV odds to call him off, even if his range is premiums+

what do you recommend [exploitatively]?

some players may never have bluffs here if they raise us, some may always have them.

let's say we have a read on a player being good and punishing you if he perceives weakness with any backdoor stuff he has [wasn't sure about that at the time of the hand],

what flop cbet sizing do we go for in this hand (or check) on king high flop with nut 2nd pair backdoor nutflush draw?

what sizing would you choose against population if you assume it's not fish but some good / average recreational?