suntauri
suntauri
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math magicianau$erirdischer arrival on open station south 1c completed succesfully
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play the best way you can as much as you can or play what way you enjoy most
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no, it's probably the most accurate way to play our hand preflop in this ICM situation with these stack sizes.
what's won with 3betting and bloating the pot OOP, where chips are much more likely to go in by the river vs the covering stack, than if we keep the pot small?
we increase bust% massively we a 3bet, if we then go postflop or get it in preflop.
if we were shorter, we'd be less incentivised to keep the pot small, as stack to pot ratio would be too small anyway.
the bubble will burst smoothly in this large field event, and we'll likely sneak comfortably into payouts even if we don't win this hand.
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now it would be interesting to see how those ranges change in our (soft) ICM environment.
what would villain's value and bluffing range and our bluffcatching range look like?
are there any heuristics?
if fish makes it 3bb+ shortstacked you can easily go 6bb(+) with aces. at least online. I get a lot of idiotic and delicious 4bet shoves.
what you mean balance? if you're balanced with blocker bluffs or suited blocker bluffs, your hand strength cannot be guessed.
for fish balance is something in far east monasteries. for us balance is fish.
I don't think we beat any value here on the river.
I'm sure it's a plus chip EV call, but perhaps hero can find folds here sometimes - there are not that many bluffs available for villain, and I'm blocking some combos of those with the Q♠ (but of course, blockers aren't everything).
a) why not? I dont know how thin one can go for value here without ICM considerations in baseline (if you do, let me know please),
but in practice someone might overvalue some pocket, or at least do so in that ICM situation, thinking
"he'll think Im bluffing, so I can valuejam lightly", if there's a general dynamic in such ICM situations between certain players who will bluff harder (how much can one bluff here, in baseline?) respectively call lighter.
b) happened to me thrice today: one villain went for a small 1.1bb (okay, not 1, but 1.1 😃) cbet on the bubble, and folded to a small checkraise by me on a different texture.
and then, I misclick cbet 1bb twice ..
Isn't that spot overbluffed, with the bubble near (by that type of player)? we also beat (potential) value. I call all day.
if it wasn't for his 1bb cbet on that flop ...
in general, we cant read thaaat much into 1bb cbets.
but here's it's really telling. Im curious if we can make that strong of a read. I think we can. and fold .. on river.
Id call probably anyway though xD and I looked up pre in some ICM scenarios, QQ can be a fine call.
yeah after thinking about it, maybe that 1bb (and the following bets) is just villain button clicking or he's just sizing like that on the bubble or on that texture or whatever. looks like a call.
each chip of the next 75% is worth less than one of the first 25% (ICM)
in general, we have to consider the complete picture - what does call us, what does raise us, etc. - we don't have the nuts (and then too, of course).
Maybe we actually do want to reshove aces vs 8 bigs stacked villain,
with 9 or 10 left and 8 paid, because well, he either folds and we chip up, or he calls with great odds to bust and we cash (or get closer to cash).
Does anyone know? What's the effect of him potentially busting?
with 8 tickets (let's ignore 9th payout to simplify) and 10 left best strategy here will probably either be
1) fold now, and then fold anything till you're blind allin
2) only reshove AA
and gotta say, I don't know if 2) is better. It may very well be not the case, and with 9 left, Im quite sure we'd just want to openfold any two cards (vs opens) until we cash, and potentially shove AA (or more) here and there depending on concrete situation. [simplified and not too accurate, not our entire strategy]
(at some point, if we should become extremely short and get a decent hand like AA, we might prefer to get it in straight away, instead of waiting).
maybe Im wrong though on the extent that we should go into nitting up and waiting mode on the immediate bubble (in some scenarios)?
it can easily be a bad player who's raisefolding, and with AK you have great blockers to shove and pick it up (or be called by a worse hand).
you're not all that close to the bubble, so these chips will help.
it can be someone who's openraising (only) premiums, but that's not necessarily him. except you can make a (strong) read or can be sure due to your outline of his game.
been curious, so the GTO EV of a shove is around ~1.4 vs ~1.45 of a call.
a call has more room upwards though, postflop.
the pure gto sb shove has EV around ~0.64.
from the big? Id favor a reshove from the small, and complete in the big
generally Id probably lean toward stacking off, it's a what? 100$ live tourney, guess they'll often just fire it off, bluffs, gifts or anything, even triple barrels with jacks.
and yes, in that turbo structure your sample is prob too small to draw a clear image of your opponent, but maybe you somehow feel it.
whether you'll want to stack off will depend on villain, by your description rather not.
you can still have the best hand, he can have worse (suited) queens or jacks and stuff.
turn I'd probably favor a call, and sometimes he'll check behind on river.
only with an idea of the player type of btn, say overcalling wide speculative ranges, Id see a case for reshoving as low as JJ+ in this framework.
Id fold, dont think theyre standing good against their ranges.
hard to say what btn is concretely doing there, in vacuum a lot is possible, but generally a pretty strong range.
