@greatwhitefish

regards openfolding vs hyperaggro k4s and 45s reshovers, the EV of openshoving seems to be fine - only case I can imagine is deep live to avoid variance, and would never choose that option online.

I believe these K4s reshoving guys are unfrequent outliers, and I wouldnt deviate without a (hard to get) concrete read - as baseline, sb is reshoving 20 bigs down to 98s, T8s vs button.

what Id actually prefer to consider in such a scenario is limping

after all we've a nice hand, we're on the button and we also get to play (more probable)

Not only suited, but even offsuit aces can be fine limps on the button, if we can’t legitimately raise them.

honestly Id shove too (in vacuum if I had no reads and no idea whatsoever about that player)

when it goes wrong it can feel like bad play, even though it felt brilliant just moments before, but one cannot unthink it and your view is reversed forever and ever ...

since we're prob not the only one who is shorter at the table, many players behind can misstep with weak holdings 3betting or shoving, which happens really often

if you call AQs and you get flatters you're the boss vs AJ, KQ, QJ ...

but if you call KTs and get flatters with KQ, KJ, AT you're ***

I think shoving is okay when you're for example deep in an mtt and surrounded by solid players who will properly attack your open (even though it’s quite hard for them to attack too loose),

but these players might call your shove even tighter than gto recommends in such a scenario - so pretty much just leveraging pure aggression and not leaving oneself open for counteraggression.

we may probably go as wide as shoving all suited aces except for the ones we want to induce with.

if there are no obstacles to realize play, then play > shove - especially live

like what small blind is gonna shove 20 bigs with KToff, QToff, JToff, any pair and any aceX vs your button open?

we're opening offsuit aces, so I hope suited ones will perform even better.

shoving feels bad.

if I had reads on opps being aggressive Id shove, or at least pretty solid (highstakes regs), then Id be open for playing more in line with gto recommendations.

feel like gto is trolling us a bit with these shoves, you gotta be really good turning wheels for it to be worthwhile.

it goes on your nerves when any time you shove they have A8off or 55 and call.

Im for minraising suited wheelaces, and believe it has more EV in almost any field.

what's going on here, when you check, is that your opps often think

"oh, he must be not strong, let's go get value... and maybe we can make it look bluffy"

😉

just flat don't 3bet. otherwise you likely fold out all worse Ax and KQ stuff.

with your stacks and positions, his 4bet will indeed be weighted toward aces and kings.

in vacuum with larger stacks, he may also have 4bet bluffs that include for example suited aces like A5s.

suited broadways want to realize more by flatting, offsuit blockerus broadways can bluff3bet. overall it depends on conrete stacks, positions, cards, opponents

- AQs or KQs will be better flats here, but if you want to play KQoff or KTs, you may be better off 3betting

only aggrofish would bluff here (possible in a 11$ mystery), but you've had no reads.

considering all variables,

after you check flop, he's like "haha, he must have 45hearts, I'll bomb pot to make him fold"

no, of course not, you're not checking air except you're fish (and then he'd not need to bluff pot), and 8 on turn connects fantastically with your flop checkback range that contains Q9off, 89off, T8off, ...

yeah actually everything connects here except for some ace highs.

but even without that consideration, it's not the situation and tourney to bluff yolo when opps being capped is so secondary to opps being calling stations, especially when you'd kind of seem to have many bluffs (when in reality there are ZERO)

and yeah, maybe if you had Q9off best play vs his big sizing on turn would be to jam, but calling doesn't cap you - opp doesn't know what you're thinking and how you'd play Q9off. it's a 11$ mystery, who fucking knows how to play that well?

turn snapfold, not a bluff in a million years. flop cbet.

coincidentally I also had QQ in BB after EP raise and EP 3bet that had a dynamic and timing that if I let that read come through in my awareness, focus and go with it I couldve folded in a deep run where people can be tighter

in vacuum, average opp will be tighter than below across all stakes, but wide enough for QQ to make it through for us

wouldn't loose my thoughts about his motives to clickraise, when he may not have any (online).

if he had AA and would prefer to trap, wouldn't he just call?

if he had JJ or TT and reshoved, wouldn't he fold out many of the hands he's dominating?

Ive no data on this spot, but I know people are wider with clickraises than {AA, KK}.

I think BB will mostly play this spot by reshoving or folding, and then occasionally go for a call or clickraise.

and yeah, with QQ we're doing okay, but it quickly gets questionable around JJ and TT.

Id just read through the whole dynamic in the $150 gg masters and opps with their stats and plays and then go for the right deviation

yep bb has wide range

if opponent was shoving 6 combos of sets and now, affected by the reentry period, went yolo with 50 combos of flushdraws (23 diamonds, ...) our most optimal strategic reply would change to calling him off.

he's likely shoving 21 combos of two pairs though, with sets 27 combos of value, and also combodraws that are ahead of us.

he might fastplay his 10 combos of nutflushdraws more often that have around 50% equity, but unlikely worse flushdraws.

most of field's strategy wont be affected by the reentry period.

is he shoving worse queens? -> call, otherwise fold

Id fold any queen, think it's value heavy vs two opps: any two pair is possible (Q7off, Q9off, 97off, ...), snap jam to make it look semibluffy, but showing much strength vs big sizing and overcall, and even stuff like JT diamonds, T8 diamonds, 68 diamonds, A9 diamonds, ... is ahead of us.

I would call if I had a more concrete read on opponent stacking off lightly with bad top pairs or something similar.

some effect of the reentry period will be there, but rather negligible in the grand scheme of things

you know what's good about the spot?

when you'll raise him on river, he will inevitably ask himself if you're pouncing on perceived weakness of his sizing, and that may be enough to justify calling to himself, when it's otherwise struggling through letting go of aces.

he can shift from exploiting to self-exploiting before realizing

if I wouldn't have a read on him being some super local topreg, I'd probably clickraise him

as it played out, his sizings bigflop bigturn smallriver, from threeway on flop on board J74QT,

I think it will be AA and KK almost always and the other hands will have prob around 0%,

except for 44 and 77, though I think he'll usually find a larger sizing with them on river.

so it's mostly AA and KK: 12 combos vs 44 and 77: 6 combos at 25%? frequency, so less than 2 combos.

I wouldn't shove on xxJQT though.

yeah on JQT he may see many offsuit twopair combos for you and also never expect you to bluff.

still not many bluffs on xxxQT with xxx lowcards probably from you on average in an underbluffed riverraise, but he may not be aware of it and find a bluffcatch or call sometimes,

if he puts you on a sometimes overplayed queen or some bluff (hearts, 56, ...), or if he's jinxed by aces.

on xxJQT Id call river.

ah I misread your board, didn't have the jack in mind.

no, with the jack I'd checkcall river.

I thought it was a lowboard, then I'd checkshove.

tankallin

first hand

when villain 4x checkraises hero on turn he already folds out 30% of hero's aces in baseline (here it's 2x cr which is commonly regarded as valueheavier on average). solver is somewhat indifferent between calling and folding aces, and does fold further 30% of them when villain jams river.

villlain benefits crucially from folding out much more beyond aces:

twice as many of hero's folds are empty KJ, QJ, ... which he may never have in his checkflop, betturn line threeway on 665Ax

having that in mind, his opponent would be less incentivised to go for bluffraises.

If he does, he uses these hands in baseline (which are many and thus come at a frequency):

straightdraws (78, ...), flushdraws (Q8ss, ...), and blocker hands like Ks5 or As5 (it also likes flushdraws with an ace: A7ss, A8ss, ...).

board 665A6

villain bluffjams river with all his (ace) blockerhands, and none of his other missed draws, when hero folds his last missed draws and some more aces.

since hero wont really have any hands below an ace in reality, blocking it wont really matter, and there will be no dynamic of folding out at least empty hands or missed draws on turn and river.

it will be villain vs Ax and that's a fight he would probably only take on with bluffs if he was levelling himself

if someone's wondering -

if villain checkraises hero's one third turn bet, he does it in baseline with QJ, some J, flushdraws, gutshots and pure bluffs

and then hero ends up calling him down with any jack on the river