Israel/Palestine thread

Well, except Israel is a democracy; so a new govt can just come in and undo everything down the line. Which seems likely. In which case sacrificing the few hostages they may have gotten back alive was for naught.

First off, approval was low because the people felt Hamas wasn't doing enough to take the fight to Israel, on top of generally being poor at running a society. And then Hamas did 10/7 and their approval skyrocketed. This is something Richard Hanania has talked about, but one of the biggest unacknowledged problems with having an eventual peace with Palestinian society is that because of how much violent resistance is glorified, actors like Hamas will always have veto power to derail any peace movement. The people will always rally behind violent actors, even if results are disastrous. It just is what it is.

As far as the current incentive structure. Due to tremendous amount of propaganda and conditioning, the Palestinian people generally believe they are fighting a Holy War to remove the Jews from Holy Land. And as long as Western aid is meeting all their basic needs, they are perfectly content with the status quo.

The Western world chooses to ignore this reality, but there has been no meaningful progress towards a 2 state solution, because there is no interest on the Palestinian side. They actually view setting borders for 2 separate states as an impediment to their objective to completely expel the Jews. As I have said many times before, the 2 state solution exists nowhere but in the Western imagination.

Now, if/when aid dried up, the people would invariably decide on more productive, rational objectives. It is hard to devote your life to Jihad on an empty stomach. You can frame this as genocide and say it is a non starter. But that doesn't mean I am wrong. If western aid stopped, or the incentive structure was modified in some other way, and Palestinian society was incentivized to have more rational, productive objectives; everything else would fall into place quickly.

I even think Israel would agree to give back most of the West Bank in a fair land swap deal in return for a real peace.

bruv

fantasy land

Don't worry. I am sure Victor will corroborate the attacks were designed to make sure no oil spilled. At this point I imagine even the IRI is questioning the prudence in giving these shitheads more weapons to attempt to create an environmental catastrophe.

maybe the West should stop delivering oil to the people who are burning children alive by the hour.

btw, oil still hasnt spilled from the first attack. nor these.

What was his methodology for distinguishing that it was October 7, and not the fact that Israel killed tens of thousands of Gazan civilians, starved the survivors, then abandoned the areas "under their control" allowing Hamas to come in, feed them, and play the hero?

Q01) In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the
Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days?
1) Very good 1% 1% 1%
2) Good 8% 8% 9%
3) so so 16% 14% 18%
4) Bad 35% 40% 28%
5) Very bad 38% 34% 45%
6) DK/NA 2% 3% 0%

While you are likely using "basic needs" to mean the absolute minimum required to survive, apparently Palestinians view their basic needs as not being satisfactory cared for. As we've seen in an article I posted earlier, there are some who think it is bad enough to risk what you say is the unriskable because the inevitable outcome is torture and death. (I missed the part where they were actually upset that Hamas was not attacking more.)

There's no need to frame it as genocide, starving a population as collective punishment in an attempt to either kill them or destroy their will is genocide. It doesn't matter how much you appeal to the moralities of antiquity, or frame this in the light of a moral code that is thousands of years out of date.

Israel's allies aren't going to allow them to be starved to death, they will have their basic needs met to avoid genocide (the definition of "basic needs" that I'm assuming you are using) because the majority of Israel's allies don't believe in genocide as a viable policy. That does not mean that there is no incentive for Gaza as we have been over before.

Where the actual incentive exists is in rebuilding the rubble. We've already discussed the reality of this months ago, and you even quoted it and mentioned it in a non-disparaging way. If Gazans are viewed as committed to violent acts that will result in another October 7, which will then result in Gazan being destroyed again, then no country is going to invest to rebuild Gaza just to see it be destroyed again. This means that Palestinians will live on top of rubble.

It's a strong incentive; no one wants to live on rubble. Currently the predominant reason we are witnessing widespread rejection of this incentive is the strong desire for retribution for the casualties of the IDF's operations. The currency that Hamas uses for recruitment is violence, and Israel has played into their hand.

literally impossible for the West to do genocide apparently

Is this referring to it being a Greek ship that had two Russians on board?

I agree it's outrageous Greece has been helping Russia avoiding sanctions. I'm not sure this is enough to determine that this is part of the shadow fleet though especially since it stopped in Iraq.

I don't know how you came to this conclusion, since I did not suggest this at all. I also don't know what point you think you're making.

was it delivering oil to Russia?

No clue, could only find info on who was on board, which is why I said I don't know if that's enough to determine anything.

it seemed the bolden pronouns referred to the Gazans.

regardless, the last bolded sentence is pretty absurd considering history.

It does refer to Gaza. It also does not suggest that it is "literally impossible" for the West to do genocide.

The bolded sentence is in no way absurd.

really, the only reason this wont be a genocide is bc the West will make it illegal to even say it was a genocide. they are arresting journalists and dissidents right and left for calling it a genocide.

Palestinians dont have to starve. They are an unproductive nation of beggars because they have chosen to be this. They could put aside Jihad and Islamism, make peace with Israel (even on terms they dont find fair), and become members of the productive world. The truth is most of Israel is barren desert. Israel didn't become a powerhouse by exploiting natural resources, they did it by becoming a modern economy; which Palestinians could if they chose to do so. And Gaza itself is pretty good coastal real estate that could easily become economically productive if there was a will and vision.

There would be no shortage of Western and Arab benefactors eager to help turn the Palestinian Territories economically productive. But under the current incentive structure there is no will or vision for this, and the Palestinians are more than content to be a nation of beggars devoted to Holy Jihad and dreams of conquering Israel.

Also, you give the West way too much credit of foresight IMO. As soon as the fighting is done, the West will immediately start writing blank checks to rebuild Gaza, regardless of how dysfunctional the political situation remains; as they have been doing for 75 years. And the contractors doing the work wont care one way or another. I suspect the entire "unity" fiasco that took place in China was China currying favor to get lucrative rebuilding contracts, and if this happens you can guarantee they will help Hamas rebuild the terror tunnels bigger and better.

no, its pretty absurd to think the West is above genocide. they do it all the time. killed millions in Vietnam, Korea, Indonesia, East Timor, Iraq, Latin America, Africa.

Europe and USA are literally built on genocide.

I have read the Houthis have attacked Russian shadow fleet oil tankers on numerous occasions; probably because they are viewed as soft targets because they dont have military assets to protect them.

--In other news Biden made the following comment when asked about ongoing ceasefire talks.

“We’re still in negotiations — not with him (Netanyahu), but with my colleagues from Qatar and from Egypt.”

--It's Biden, so who knows if he meant something completely different than what he said. But my gut is that ceasefire talks involving Egypt and Qatar (2 bad faith actors in their own right) that dont include Israel or Hamas are unlikely to bear any productive fruit.

Hamas is now releasing videos of the hostages they just executed, I guess to rub it in.

In a sane world, one would think such sadism would turn reasonable people against Hamas. But Hamas understands that western leftists support them unconditionally for ideological reasons. And their antisemitic Arab/Muslim supporters support sadism targeted at Jews. So Hamas actions are viewed as +EV given these realities.

Western media for its part seems to have memory-holed that Hamas are the ones that actually perpetrated the executions, and are now posting sadistic videos to gloat over it. And Western media is instead blaming everything on Netanyahu, while being mostly being agnostic that Hamas stopped attending ceasefire talks weeks ago.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/det...

It really is heading to a country that is "burning children alive by the hour." I wonder if this was done to try to prevent the Houthis from attacking.

The other was heading to Egypt, a country that is trying to help Gaza...

My 2 cents*:

Summary:
1)This is a war. Both Hamas and Israel have made that clear.
2)Hamas will accept nothing less than the destruction of Israel. I remain unconvinced this is merely a "bargaining" point. Absent that goal they really have no point to exist.
3)The end of WWII did not require the Nazi's to surrender. It required the end of the Nazi party and its goals. Really, any war that results in stability and lasting peace does so only because it is definitively agreed upon by both sides that there will be peace. No gimmicks. No fingers crossed behinds ones back. Using WWII as an example, part of the Potsdam Agreement called for the destruction of the Nazi Party and the abolition of 52 other Nazi affiliated and supervised organizations and outlawed their activities.
4) If Hamas is to remain in power, with their goal to destroy Israel intact, then there can only be a temporary cessation in hostilities. There can be no end to the war. There can be no peace. Without peace between Palestinians and Israel, Gaza will remain a perpetual bastion of despair. But Hamas is propped up by powerful and wealthy benefactors, and Hamas does not intend to go away.
5) Much of the world has has seemed to suggest that they could care less if there is peace. They just want a ceasefire so they can stop feeling bad about a situation that has no easy solution. Even if the majority of Palestinians want peace, and it is not clear if this is so, they are powerless to usurp Hamas.
6) Those who care about the Palestinians need to determine how to create a government structure that can take the place of Hamas. But this is currently an impossible task.

Context:
The Allies, ignoring the great cost to the civilian populations of their enemies, did not stop bombing Germany and Japan until an unconditional surrender was achieved. Israel seems to have made it clear that is their intention with Hamas. The theory could be that only by experiencing severe civilian suffering would the Palestinians be willing to embrace peaceful co-existence with Israel. We are certainly getting to that point of suffering, if we are not already there, and yet peace remains a universe away. So, maybe a different solution is needed. But I have heard of no workable alternative.

I suppose if Iran and Qatar wanted peace they could simply stop funding and protecting Hamas and its leaders, at which point Hamas would almost certainly crumble. By funding Hamas, and protecting its leaders, one could presume that Iran and Qatar do not have the safety and wellbeing of the Palestinian people as their primary concern. Hamas certainly does not have the safety of its people as a concern.

More optimistically, however, I think Qatar may want peace. But Iran is clearly the sticking point. If they lose Hamas, then they don't just lose power among the Palestinians, but every one of the other Iranian proxies in the Middle East will have to assume their days are numbered. Every country that tolerates Iran’s proxies today will see less reason to do so going forward, and these countries will gain more courage and resolve to oppose Iran. Ultimately, with respect to power, influence and leverage, Iran loses EVERYTHING. What would make Iran want to do that? What will they need to be given in return?

Peace with Hamas requires peace with Iran, and peace with Iran may be an unrealistic achievement. But, even if Iran consents to the destruction of Hamas, what will Russia think? Does Russia want its ally, Iran, to lose power and influence? Russia likes turmoil in the Middle East. There is currently a premium paid on every barrel of oil specifically because the Middle East is politically unstable. Given the fungibility of oil, peace in the Middle East will cause the price of oil to drop. China might like that, enough so that they could be on board. But Russia might choose to make life miserable for Iran if they agree to a peaceful end to the Israel/Palestinian war. How do we get Russia on board?

But this is not the worst of it. Even if Hamas is somehow removed from power, without the creation a strong replacement government then an even more radical Islamic group could take over. Every radical Muslim group would feel threatened by the end of Hamas and they would likely do everything in their power to prevent this, or, if needed, avenge this. Even worse, given the large numbers of radicalized Palestinians living in Gaza, there would almost certainly be a Civil War. Therefore, not only would a peaceful Palestinian government need to defend itself from radical Muslim forces from the outside, they would need to simultaneously fight a war from within.

Iran, Qatar, and ultimately Russia, would therefore need to agree to fight against such a radical Muslim revolt, or at least not stand in the way. Good luck with that. If a peaceful Palestinian government lost to radical Muslim forces it would ultimately create even more instability. Russia and Iran might like that, but the Israel, the US and its allies would hate it. I think this is the reason a solution is so elusive, and I am certain Hamas is aware of this, too. Israel, its allies, and probably most savvy world leaders, realize they lack the ability to solve the Hamas problem without risking a worse outcome.

At the same time, Hamas can't be allowed to actually win. This would be a tacit admission that radical Muslim groups should be allowed to win, and that the destruction of Israel is an acceptable and realistic goal. Israel, the US and its allies, would never let this happen. Everyone knows that Israel would light the Middle East on fire with nuclear weapons if their country was placed at actual risk of being taken over. This could be the reason the situation stands at a stalemate.

For now, because the world is incapable of achieving anything different, it is death and destruction with no end in sight. Israel is willing to fight at any cost. Hamas is willing to fight at any cost. Is the world willing to achieve peace at any cost? From the looks of it. No. But, at the same time, despite all the yelling, screaming and threats, nobody has actually prevented Israel from doing what it is doing. I really do not think Israel intends to stop until there is peace, or Gaza no longer exists. Ultimately, either Israel (and the US) come to terms with Iran, or things risk escalating into a multi-state war.

What confuses me:
If the Palestinians agreed to live in peace with Israel they would have peace, and a future. Nobody seems willing to say this. Not sure why. There is zero chance Israel would start a war with someone that is at peace with them. Some will argue that Hamas was justified in attacking Israel because Israel is an occupying force. But, oddly, it would stand to reason that Hamas can only safely attack Israel because of this arrangement. If Hamas were to lead an independent Palestinian State, completely free of any Israeli control, then they could no longer attack Israel under the guise that Israel is their occupier. They could only attack Israel because their stated goal is to destroy Israel. If Gaza, the country, attacked Israel, then Article 51 of the UN Charter would unambiguously apply. If Israel retaliated then not a single country in the UN could argue against the validity of a counter attack. Hamas would be obliterated. Gaza would be obliterated. So why doesn’t Israel simply give in and give Hamas this independent state, free of any conditions, and simply dare Hamas to attack again? Perhaps Israel is concerned that Hamas could obtain such severely powerful weapons that their attack on Israel would be devastatingly effective. This would require Israel, and the US, to directly attack any country that supplied Hamas with such weapons. Maybe that would be a more certain path to WWIII then the current scenario…

*This entire discourse is irrelevant if you think Israel does not have the right to exist.

Because Israel doesn’t trust these very countries denying Israel’s right to exist to uphold Article 51 for them.

There isn't much of a disagreement that Hamas is just trolling the ever loving **** out of Israel and should continue to be curb stomped in the most laughable means possible for maximum funzies if anything else, tbh.

But there is a serious disassociation between the level of empathy for those who have died living inside Israeli borders on oct 7th and those who died in gaza afterwords - and it's pretty ****ing disgusting to watch.

Even with removing all empathy and looking at it from a pure stategic pov, the death toll doesn't even help the case for protecting isreali lives for reasons that you stated.

I feel disgusted at the dead Palestinian, but the deaths need to be blamed on the terrorist group Hamas before we can even assess whether or not Israel has been too punitive in their action (and given how no one talks about how many actual Hamas they have killed and always want to pretend only civilians have been killed).

What a **** excuse