Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack where hundreds of spam threads were created. In the case where, for example, I see a single spam thread and delete it, that is called a soft delete, and mods can still see them but forum members cannot. Those deletion can be undone.
When a massive attack hits with hundreds of threads, an admin uses a different procedure where the hundreds of spam threads are merged and then hard deleted, where the threads are gone, and no note is left behind. As I have mentioned with my own experience of just soft deleting a large number of posts, sometimes a post or thread gets checked or merged accidentally and is deleted by mistake. Dealing with hundreds of spam threads takes a sledgehammer, not a scalpel.
It appears that our Ukraine thread may have gotten caught up in that recent net of spam threads. If so, it is likely gone for good. I cant say this for sure, and am awaiting comments from admins on this issue. Yes, this sucks. And hopefully there was some other software glitch that caused the disappearance, and we may recover it in the future.
But in the meantime, I have created this new Ukraine-Russia War thread to enable the conversation to continue. Obviously continuity with earlier discussions will be lost. There is no way around that. So as best as possible, let's pick up the conversation with recent events and go from there.
If you have any questions about this, please post them in the mod thread, not here. Let's keep this thread going with posts about the war, not the disappearance of the old thread.
Thanks.
Was anyone under the illusion it could be turned into a client state like Saudi Arabia?
I stole this quote from somewhere: "when Mccain called Russia a gas station masquerading as a country, it was aspirational".
Er... $45 trillion GDP (G7) is bigger than $27 trillion GDP (BRICS), most of which is China.
Trump bans UK from sharing intel with Ukraine
https://www.joe.ie/news/donald-trump-ban...
Er... $45 trillion GDP (G7) is bigger than $27 trillion GDP (BRICS), most of which is China.
Except for the US the G7 has no manufacturing capacity or military, and even the US has limited manufacturing capacity.
Listened to the beginning of an interesting podcast between Sam Harris and the historian Niall Ferguson. Sam shares the first half of his podcasts, and the rest is behind a paywall, so only got about 30 minutes. I generally dont find Harris podcasts that interesting that I feel compelled to pay for the rest, but this may be an exception. Was very interesting.
Anyways, Ferguson argues that the US empire is basically done as its interest payments on its debt are too high. He said that is how it works; you pass a threshold and you are done.
Anyways, for all its blustering, he says based on actions the Trump administration seems to share this perspective, and what we are seeing is the beginning of a managed decline. And this includes attempting a detente with Russia and China.
He also emphasizes that Ukraine (and the ME) isn't the main theatre of conflict. It is very secondary. The main theatre is Taiwan and the South Pacific. And Trump realizes we dont have the military power or manufacturing capacity to win a war in this theatre, so he is trying to orchestrate a detente so that the fight never happens. Even if that means gradually giving up Taiwan and the South Pacific as a sphere of influence.
The Black Sea ports and access are seen as strategically vital. Not to mention, there are a lot of ethnic Russians there. Russia will see Ukraine be a buffer state. I think very few people (and I'm not one of them) fully understand the significance of the area to Russian security concerns. But the point is Russia understands. They have articulated the significance and what they are willing to risk to protect it from NATO control.
I don't know how to defeat Russia militarily or choke it economical
So nato excuses now is not true ?
Because they could « invade » easily from the 3 others borders .
No, the difference is that Putin never accepted Ukraine not being part of Russia .
Never accepted the independence Ukraine won .
It’s that simple ….
And probably many natural ressources and other $h!t .
NATO like Nazism is just excuses like trump uses fentanyl and illegal immigration from Canada to impose tariffs .
Yeah he is a free market capitalist. It's been interesting to see how Russia has been viewed over time. It started off in the 80s as the authoritarian enemy of freedom in a propaganda framework where freedom was conflated with market freedom.
Then the Soviet Union fell apart but so did our excuse for massive defense spending, causing something of an internal crisis for us.
Then we were like yay let's welcome the Russians into the international capitalist system by applying all of our economic theo
Thx.
That’s pretty much confirm the thoughts I had about you .
Mixed up in conspiracies and deep state things about Russia ….
IMO you have some great points in many subjects but about Russia you are totally out of your mind …. …
Listened to the beginning of an interesting podcast between Sam Harris and the historian Niall Ferguson. Sam shares the first half of his podcasts, and the rest is behind a paywall, so only got about 30 minutes. I generally dont find Harris podcasts that interesting that I feel compelled to pay for the rest, but this may be an exception. Was very interesting.
Anyways, Ferguson argues that the US empire is basically done as its interest payments on its debt are too high. He said that is how
Not trying to be a dick because I do think this is an interesting line of thinking BUT how are we still pretending to give Trump any kind of 3D chess credit. You have a president with minimal foreign policy, theory, or historical contextual interest and we are trying to say that he has played it all out and come up with this answer?
On a more serious note, he's doing the last things you would do for a managed decline. He's blowing the whole system up and threatening to tank the stability of the american dollar which will destroy foreign demand and accelerate potential debt and interest issues...
So nato excuses now is not true ?
Because they could « invade » easily from the 3 others borders .
Russia obviously sees Ukraine differently and more forcefully insists it be a buffer state. I'm not going to go researching exactly why it feels that way. I don't see why we can't all agree that, for whatever reasons, Russia has always insisted Ukraine was a red line for NATO. They have their reasons. We have a buffer ocean and buffer continents. They can have a buffer state in which, by the way, reside a large percentage of ethnic Russians.
Invading Russia isn't easy. Just ask that idiot Napoleon.
No, the difference is that Putin never accepted Ukraine not being part of Russia .
Never accepted the independence Ukraine won .
ItÂ’s that simple Â….
And probably many natural ressources and other $h!t .
That's demonstrably false. But let's hold the truth value aside for a second. What do you care? Say Russia wasn't happy about Ukraine being "independent" as you say and that's why they invaded, to take it back under Russian control. That's the most fantastic fairy tale ever written, but let's assume it's true. So what? Some people halfway around the world are going at it? Why do you care? Don't tell me you care about democracy when you've never once complained about your government being besties with the Saudis.
There is one rational response to the threat Russia issued in response to NATO encroachment into Ukraine and that is "ok there is no pressing need to recruit Ukraine into NATO we're not interfering with Ukraine affairs"
NATO like Nazism is just excuses like trump uses fentanyl and illegal immigration from Canada to impose tariffs .
Sure. A military alliance with a history of wars of aggression, formed for the purpose of defeating you, wants to set up shop right on your border from where it can disrupt your economy, take away a key naval port, and threaten your largest cities at will. Sure that's just a contrived bs excuse.
Do you hear yourselves?
Not trying to be a dick because I do think this is an interesting line of thinking BUT how are we still pretending to give Trump any kind of 3D chess credit. You have a president with minimal foreign policy, theory, or historical contextual interest and we are trying to say that he has played it all out and come up with this answer?
On a more serious note, he's doing the last things you would do for a managed decline. He's blowing the whole system up and threatening to tank the stability of the a
What is 3D chess about it? It isn't a secret this is more or less the path Trump is taking. Trump explicitly talks a lot about decreasing the deficit and detente with Russia, and a lesser extent China. He even mentioned all 3 nations should agree to reduce their arsenals and military spending. And Hegswith has said similar things about the need to reduce military footprint around the world. And he is pulling troops out of Eastern Europe, stopping spying on Russia, etc.
I dont know how much you listen to Tucker (who seems to have some real influence with Trump) but he has done several podcasts recently that directly touch on these topics. I dont think this line of thinking is as out of the box as you seem too.
I know in liberal circles it is revealed truth that Ukraine is a great ally to the west that must be protected at all costs, and if we dont do so Russian tanks will be rolling through Berlin. But as recently as 2014 even Obama admitted Ukraine is more important to Russia than it is to us; and no one except Western liberals think Russia has any great aspirations West of Ukraine. And if they do this should be cause for Western Europe to finally start doing what the US has been trying to get them to do for the last 50 years; get involved in their own military preparedness.
Like I said, the interview cut out, so I dont know if Niall thinks Trump is actually doing a good job or not, or if that was even something they went over in the interview. He was just giving his best explanation in real time what is going on.
Western liberals are framing this as Trump giving in to Russia, but Niall gave this opinion this is a bad framing and that Trump is instead offering a detente with Russia as a more accurate portrayal of what is going on. He also said this actually puts Putin in a potentially tough spot, because Trump has seized the initiative and is setting the parameters of a potential peace/armistice, and if everyone views Trump is being more than fair with Putin, and Putin still wont come to the peace table, than he potentially loses the moral high ground he has with much of the world*.
*You and most of the western world dont agree with this, and you dont have to; but for good or bad much of the rest of the world really sees this as the West encroaching on Russia, and Putin's motivations as defensive.
Keep in mind, in the same way that we used to worry about the encroachment of Communism (and were willing to fight wars to stop that encroachment), the dictators of the world (even the ones with fake democracies like Russia) see the spread of democracy through Eastern Europe and see a strong necessity to stop it, at any cost.
Russia obviously sees Ukraine differently and more forcefully insists it be a buffer state. I'm not going to go researching exactly why it feels that way. I don't see why we can't all agree that, for whatever reasons, Russia has always insisted Ukraine was a red line for NATO. They have their reasons. We have a buffer ocean and buffer continents. They can have a buffer state in which, by the way, reside a large percentage of ethnic Russians.
Invading Russia isn't easy. Just ask that idiot Napoleo
Isn't Russia like 50 miles from USA?
Listened to the beginning of an interesting podcast between Sam Harris and the historian Niall Ferguson. Sam shares the first half of his podcasts, and the rest is behind a paywall, so only got about 30 minutes. I generally dont find Harris podcasts that interesting that I feel compelled to pay for the rest, but this may be an exception. Was very interesting.
Anyways, Ferguson argues that the US empire is basically done as its interest payments on its debt are too high. He said that is how
WOAH YOU CAN'T KNOW THAT. YOU CAN'T KNOW THAT. Don't tell us what we'll feel! You are in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel. We’re going to feel very good.
There is about 4000 miles of no mans land between any major russian population center and that 50 miles of sea
As I mentioned, I think it is less about concern the West is going to invade Russia, and more the disease (in Putin's mind at least) of relatively non-corrupt institutions and true democracy spreading. This is a concern most corrupt dictators worry about.
What's your point?
When the Warsaw Pact reconstitutes, orchestrates the overthrow the Mexican government and it's replacement with a pro Russia regime, starts training Mexican soldiers to Warsaw Pact standards, and sets up bases on the Yucatan Peninsula let me know.
As I mentioned, I think it is less about concern the West is going to invade Russia, and more the disease (in Putin's mind at least) of relatively non-corrupt institutions and true democracy spreading. This is a concern most corrupt dictators worry about.
Trump is letting his largest donor reshape our entire government like he is weeding his own personal garden. I don't think the Russians fear American integrity or rule of law.
Trump is letting his largest donor reshape our entire government like he is weeding his own personal garden. I don't think the Russians fear American integrity or rule of law.
And yet no matter how much he does in reshaping govt, in a little under 4 years if the American people decide they dont want him to be in power any more, he is gone. Obviously a very frightening proposition to the dictators of the world.
**FWIW, the replies to this tweet clarify that the Jews who stayed probably converted to Christianity first before Islam.
Came across this tweet because it was retweeted by Taleb. Now I am not saying he is an antisemite, but he does have a very peculiar pattern of being hypercritical of Israel, and has never found much fault in the actions of the Palestinians or Lebanese. If one was doing a statistical analysis of his tweets, I wonder what the odds of them determining whether he was profoundly biased or not would be?
Regardless, seems the biggest implication of this research is that it is actually the Palestinians who should be blamed for killing Jesus.
He also emphasizes that Ukraine (and the ME) isn't the main theatre of conflict. It is very secondary. The main theatre is Taiwan and the South Pacific. And Trump realizes we dont have the military power or manufacturing capacity to win a war in this theatre, so he is trying to orchestrate a detente so that the fight never happens. Even if that means gradually giving up Taiwan and the South Pacific as a sphere of influence.
That's not really what he says. He says that the US can't simultaneously fight a war with China, Russia, Iran and NK.
So, by inference Trump wants to not fight Russia while simultaneously moving them towards the US sphere of influence and away form China. This weakens China and strengthens the US, which will hopefully deter China from Taiwan. However, if it doesn't the US can mobilize all their resources to contest it.
Basically, he wants Europe to deal with Russia so they can concentrate on China.
And yet no matter how much he does in reshaping govt, in a little under 4 years if the American people decide they dont want him to be in power any more, he is gone. Obviously a very frightening proposition to the dictators of the world.
Democracy sounds nice. Let me know when we have it.
As things stand, if I had to choose between a "dictator" who grants universal healthcare and a "democracy" that lets healthcare companies kill people, where some weirdo headcase who is good at nothing but hyping stocks gets to decide (one might say dictate) how much of my government he can arbitrarily shut down based on his delusional idiot thinking, I've gotta say I'm pretty indifferent.
Democracy sounds nice. Let me know when we have it.
As things stand, if I had to choose between a "dictator" who grants universal healthcare and a "democracy" that lets healthcare companies kill people, where some weirdo headcase who is good at nothing but hyping stocks gets to decide (one might say dictate) how much of my government he can arbitrarily shut down based on his delusional idiot thinking, I've gotta say I'm pretty indifferent.
this is how you end up with the dictator, and without "universal healthcare"
What's your point?
When the Warsaw Pact reconstitutes, orchestrates the overthrow the Mexican government and it's replacement with a pro Russia regime, starts training Mexican soldiers to Warsaw Pact standards, and sets up bases on the Yucatan Peninsula let me know.
Comparing the military effectiveness of cartels and Russian military, at this point I would take the cartels with all their US equipment over Russian trained and supplied soldiers any day of the week.
That is kind of Russia's big problem right now. Is that their current kleptocracy is so corrupt and inefficient that pretty much anything else works better; so they have to resort to extreme brutality and overwhelming force to keep their chickens in line.
Democracy sounds nice. Let me know when we have it.
As things stand, if I had to choose between a "dictator" who grants universal healthcare and a "democracy" that lets healthcare companies kill people, where some weirdo headcase who is good at nothing but hyping stocks gets to decide (one might say dictate) how much of my government he can arbitrarily shut down based on his delusional idiot thinking, I've gotta say I'm pretty indifferent.
There are lots of countries with dictators and universal healthcare. But it is no place you or I would ever choose to live in, because they suck. And if your vision for America ever happened, then America would suck too. I am endlessly amused by American "radical leftists" who will endlessly extoll the virtues of third world shitholes, but would never leave to live in one. But if any of them ever got their wish, they would probably be on the first plane out of town.
