2025 NFL Off Season Thread

9+ wins easy if Denver gets him.

FYP

My memory was that Wilson was ranked even higher than this but I thought Jones talent was always capped. Surprising that Maye is this high too tbh albeit he looked excellent in his rookie year

100% Jones was capped, more of a game manager. He'd have to be the best version of himself to succeed in the NFL.

The league was pretty high on Wilson, it just didn't make much sense. the COVID year had a ton of opt-outs, he was always throwing from a clean pocket, and BYU wasn't P5 then either. Fat numbers for one year in a soft situation, drafted more off highlight reels and workouts than actual college performance. (Similarly, Pickett's fat numbers I thought mostly came from being 23 years old and throwing to Jordan Addison.)

Generally I want to see someone starting by the time they're a sophomore and at least putting up solid numbers. The highly-regarded draft prospects like Lawrence and Williams won the jobs early and were 3-years-and-out guys. (So was Maye, for the record.) Now, the success of this year's super-senior crop has me reevaluating, because players stay longer in college in the NIL era and because all those guys were starters from an early age, even if they weren't super productive early on. So maybe that experience and finding the right system is important. Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels started as true freshmen; Penix won the job as a redshirt freshman and played some as a true freshman, he was just constantly getting injured.

But if I'm gonna draft a senior or super-senior QB who only won the job or put up big numbers late, they're gonna have to be titanic. Like Joe Burrow-- he didn't win a starting job until his fourth year of college, but his fifth year he broke records and won a national championship and Heisman while playing in the SEC. If you're that good against that level of competition, then maybe you have a shot. But that kind of player is rare (basically Burrow and Daniels, and Daniels was in his fifth year as a starter).

I was pretty high on Maye (I tend to not put much stock into a QB's numbers falling off a bit from sophomore to junior year if they're as good as Maye's were as a sophomore) and had no problem with where he went, and thought he played well for being thrown into the awful situation the Patriots had him in. (They've never been good at drafting wide receivers, but at least they used to build good offensive lines.)

Speaking of drafting wide receivers, the Deebo Samuel trade had me thinking about this again: Apparently Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch really prioritize drafting seniors at wide receiver. (I'm not sure offhand the source to confirm this, but their actual track record confirms it-- every single WR they've drafted since taking the reins spent at least four years in college, counting the JuCo stints for Danny Gray and Brandon Aiyuk.)

But being a senior or older wide receiver has a pretty strong negative correlation to NFL success. The large majority of the best WRs in the NFL are players who declared three years after college.

Just look at the top 15 wide receivers by yards of 2024:

Three years in college:

• Ja'Marr Chase
  
• Justin Jefferson
  
• Brian Thomas Jr.
  
• Drake London
  
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
  
• Jerry Jeudy
  
• Malik Nabers
  
• CeeDee Lamb
  
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  
• Garrett Wilson
  
• A.J. Brown
  
• Davante Adams
  

Four years in college:

• Ladd McConkey
  
• Terry McLaurin
  
• Courtland Sutton
  

(and Sutton should've declared after his junior year IMO-- his performance was more than good enough to justify it.)

The top eight-- Chase through Lamb-- are all three-year early-declares. (Tight ends are different, mostly because they're often not as involved in the college passing game as their talent is capable of, but Brock Bowers, who tied with Lamb in receiving yards, was also a three-year early declare.)

Just strange that a team would have a criterion for drafting at a position that really limits them from the talent pool of the best players at it.

Drafting a senior also means they are likely to tail off quicker on their second contract. That’s a rich man’s problem tbh because it means you’ve drafted successfully and got 5/6 years of quality production but it’s a factor

Fantastic posts nayth. 👍

Then there's Reek who played a whopping 133 plays in college and scored a mind blowing 2 TDs. That's gotta be the least productive college career for anyone in the 10k club, right?

Yeah, and on top of that, there's the whole matter of the development curve. Most players keep growing and developing physically until 25 and then peak from 25-29 (QBs a bit later, RBs a bit earlier). If you get a player at 23, he doesn't have as much long to get better than a player who is 21. And a player who dominates college players at 19 has a better projected growth curve than someone who doesn't until 21, especially considering you're mostly playing against 22-year-olds.

Mike Evans, DJ Moore, Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf are other guys who immediately come to mind as 3-and-done. DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham were, too. Even looking at this year-- you think the Bears would rather have Rome Odunze or Brian Thomas?

Generally you want a guy who shows up as a big part of his school's passing game no later than his second year out of high school. (That's what made Calvin Ridley an interesting evaluation, he was a 3-and-done but he was older in college, turning 20 his true freshman year. But he also immediately led Alabama in yards and TDs and led the whole SEC in receptions, as a true freshman. Also Jameson Williams, who left after 3 years and had a killer third year but wasn't much of a factor his first two years.)

Big reason I wasn't high on Xavier Legette coming out; for all his physical talent, he was a dud until his fifth year of college. Keon Coleman I think will have a better career. Xavier Worthy was 3-and-done and led Texas in receiving all three years he was there, which is why I was optimistic on him (and over the back half of the season seems to have been steadily growing into the role).

It doesn't always work out: I thought Sammy Watkins would be great, but apparently his drinking and work ethic caught up to him in the NFL. Quentin Johnston improved a fair bit year two but still has a ways to go to be as good as fellow 3-and-done 2023 classmates JSN and Jordan Addison. Treylon Burks had the kind of production you want in a major college, but can't stay on the field (and might not be all that good when he is, although being injured all the time makes developing hard too). But you'll never be perfect at drafting, all you can do is improve your process.

2015 actually provides an ideal object example for this. Two wide receivers were taken in the top 10. Kevin White was bigger and faster than Amari Cooper and coming off a killer senior season. But he wasn't much of a factor before then and was two years older than Cooper. Meanwhile, Cooper had 1000 yards as a true freshman and led the nation in yards and receptions as a junior. Cooper might be hitting the end of the line at last, but he has 10,033 career receiving yards to White's 397.

I don't think 133 plays is right-- he had 133 touches and two TDs from scrimmage his only year at OSU, but he also returned kicks and punts and had three TDs doing that. And it doesn't count his time at West Alabama or two years of community college before then.

4.29 can go a long way in the NFL, it turns out.

Frequent transfers and guys with odd journeys like that are always gonna be trickier evaluations, which is why they go so late in the draft. And there are outliers and exceptions to every rule. Who the hell knew Puka Nacua was gonna immediately step into the NFL and play like a star? Even the guys I knew who were high on him were presumably shocked by just how good his rookie season was.

(Also, to the QB pool I'll add Cam Newton. He was only a one-year starter at the NCAA level, but he was so good he won the Heisman while accounting for 50 TDs, playing in the SEC, and led Auburn to a 14-0 season and national championship despite not having a lot of future NFL talent around them. If you're that talented that you can elevate your team that much-- Auburn went 8-5 before and after his one year there-- there's a good chance you have the talent for the NFL.)

Can Newton’s Auburn year must be up there with the greatest QB seasons in college football history. Same as Burrow. Late developing, sure….but omfg

And I totally agree re the early producer at college. Linemen who were 1st yr starters is generally a very good sign. Very very rare for a pass rusher to produce early though. D Ware hardly troubled the stats as a freshman. Even Peppers redshirted

Speaking of WR’s that are precocious young talents,

How high are you on Ryan Williams’ future career pro prospects?

I think he’s absolutely incredible. I don’t know how Bama keeps getting these generational talents at WR every single year.

+2

nath, I am curious about your take on DeVonta Smith (I know he was left out of your list because he didn't meet the yardage requirement). I doubt that he performed well his last two years of college was because he was older/more mature.

If Daniels stays healthy the Deebo pick up is going to make for a mega explosive offense for the Commanderos.

agree daniels stability should be of some concern
a headless mantis preying in locust land can only last so long

what is difficult to dissertation is deebo
also known as a perpetual drive dodger
yet can still afford to ram his head into a chevy fender again and again

I think Deebo is done. Looked washed this year and obviously has a bad attitude. Horrible trade for the Commanders.

Yeah. He just played like he didn't care. I would have preferred a hungry rookie, but that's just me.

I don’t know the commies cap space but assuming it’s massive there’s no real risk there other than Deebo’s propensity to be a fuckboi cancer bumass piece of shit whining about targets and dropping game winning tds you fucking cocksucker piece of shit i hope you get hit by a bus and die of dysentery

Sounds like it should work out then.

sick Oregon Trail reference.

the only way that this is a horrible trade for Wash is if they extend him. Otherwise, it’s a low 5th Rd pick ffs.

Yes they have to pay him $17m, but that’s manageable with a cheap QB. IMO they still need to draft or sign a second WR and then they have Deebo as a gadget guy. Of course there’s a chance he’s a reduced version of himself but it’s worth a risk

It's definitely worth the risk now that he has an elite QB throwing him the ball.

I feel like Cam Skattebo might be a perfect fit for the Broncos. It sounds like he can be had in the late third as of now.

It's not as important at some positions as others, and usually a redshirt is OK-- if they aren't doing anything by sophomore year, though, you get a bit concerned. Athleticism is a huge determining factor in successful pass rushers, especially the 3-cone (with some adjustments for weight)-- how well you can turn the corner and maintain speed/power leads to success. The broad/vertical jumps are useful for gauging explosiveness, too.

Of course, you do have to know what you're doing and develop your skills. Vic Beasley washed out because he only had one move and never grew past that. And all the athleticism in the world doesn't matter if you play like you don't know what's going on.

Wide receiver is a pretty technical position so raw athleticism isn't as important to productivity and future success.

Every reason right now to think he will be a very good player in the league.

Smith was an odd evaluation for me. I was shy because of his age and because his massive year was the COVID season when a bunch of players opted out. Between his later breakout and his slight build, I wasn't so sure his performance would translate to the NFL. But, maybe it's similar to the Burrow thing, where if you perform that well even at an older age then you have an NFL future. Maybe there was something he unlocked in his game technically in those last couple of years.

He seems to be at about the peak result I'd have thought he was capable of as a prospect, a very good WR2.

The 3-and-done rule is a lot about the upside as well as hit rate. There are still productive guys out there who stayed in school four years. But just not as many, and the best of the best, the real superstars, were all 3-and-done guys.

DeVonta was blocked by multiple first rounders his sophomore year and unlike DK and AJ was not NFL ready at 19... but he is a smart football player and is clearly talented. If he can stay healthy, I would argue he has more longevity than physical freaks