2025 NFL Off Season Thread

You make it sound like it's much easier to just find a franchise QB than it actually is.

The team is loaded with veteran talent and made the Super Bowl in 2023. I guess you could blow that up if being efficient with your cap dollars is more important than winning. But I don't think that's a sound approach.

who is talking about "blowing it up"

the discussion is why pay non-ELITE QBs ELITE $$$?

it makes no sense paying Purdy more than JOE

none

but i dislike the 29ers, so i'm all for it. hope he gets a 6-8 yr mega-bag

You apparently think it's worth paying a guy drafted in the 7th round top of the market. So it can't be too hard.

This.

No one is going to argue that Najee Harris should get Saquon's deal just because he's the next man up for a new contract.

Sure. That's why teams find franchise QBs in the 7th round all the time, because it's easy. I mean, Tom Brady was a sixth-rounder, so why would any team even draft a QB before then?

Najee is replacement level and only notable for his capacity for tremendous volume. If you think Brock is a replacement level QB, then no, you shouldn't pay him. Obviously the 49ers do not think that; they think he's their guy. And while I don't think he's ELITE, I think he's good enough that they're justified in thinking so.

A ton of the 49ers best players are in that 27-30 range (let alone Trent Williams). Their core will be out of their prime in 2-3 years. If you decide it's fine to stink for a couple of years because you don't want to pay Purdy, then why even keep those guys around? If you don't blow it up, they won't be nearly as effective by the time you're ready to compete again, so you might as well.

But if you don't pay your QB, where do you get one? And if you don't have a QB, how do you run your offense? And if you don't have an offense, how do you compete?

If you think you have a franchise guy at QB, then you gotta pay him the going rate. Yes, that means a lot of teams overpay second-tier QBs who aren't at the Lamar / Mahomes / Allen / Burrow level. But the alternative is worse. So it goes.

I agree with nath on this as the alternative is almost always bad.

Is Jalen on that pay level (stats wise at least), probably not, but pay him because at least you have that done and aren't looking for another QB.

Or Trevor, or Jordan Love, or Dak, or Tua (who I know is a tiny bit less). Or the next few guys up until Pat and Joe and Josh get their restructures.

The issue is that the very top QBs are paid less than they’re worth. It’s way worse in basketball

Baseball is imo the only one of the major American sports that is relatively ‘fair and market driven’ in free agency but of course that sport utterly ****s most of the players in their early and mid 20s

Who’d have thought that the land of the free would have so many restrictive practices?

what's the rush? he's under contract this year for $5.3mm

if i'm the owner, i want to see another year where it isn't all gold-plated roads lined w roses like he had early in his career. is he a QB capable of really elevating an offense?

call me crazy but i'd need to know first before backing up the proverbial Brinks truck

Yes. It’s a theoretical discussion vs a practical discussion

Nothing wrong at all with the argument in a vacuum but in reality with jobs and fans and teammates and owners etc etc, going with the B+ guy you know over an unknown future that could result in complete irrelevance is the rational decision. and the way the salary market works for QBs, is that B+ starters get paid the same % of the salary cap as A+ starters. You have to be a B-, C+ starter to get significantly less...Mayfield, Geno, Carr etc. And even those guys are very difficult to find.

Look at how the Colts and Falcons and Saints and Steelers etc have struggled and floundered since their franchise QBs disappeared. The Seahawks ran way above expectation with their Geno signing but they’ve still never been close to a true contender

You only think you do because that's what teams have done recently and you're used to the status quo.

How's that been working out for teams that have over paid average QBs?

Yeah, that's it. In theory, you want to be as efficient with your cap money as possible. In reality, QB is by far the most important position and there are not enough good ones to go around. So guys who are long-term starters but not MVP-caliber get overpaid. If you're only willing to pay a top-4 or -5 QB on a long term deal, you might be mired in mediocrity or worse for a very long time.

And on the fans and teammates stuff, that's something worth highlighting. It's still a people business. What players are gonna want to sign with a team whose goal is to minimize spending inefficiency even at the cost of wins? How do you keep team cohesion and chemistry if you let everyone go who might be paid a dollar more than they're worth? And who's gonna show up to watch a team that goes 6-11 every year but at least has a clean cap?

I'm arguing for "very good but not All-Pro" level, not "average," so that's not relevant.

Anyway, a team with a QB under contract for over $50 million a year, who isn't one of those four I named, just won the Super Bowl. And the three of those four who are not Mahomes have a combined 0-1 record in Super Bowls.

Christian Kirk to the Texans makes the Samuel trade look a little better. Less draft capital and $2m less for the year for Kirk but I would much rather have Deebo than Kirk

I will grant that this is the first time in seven years that a QB who wasn't Brady or Mahomes won the Super Bowl, so in the sense of using Super Bowls as a benchmark, that's a tough nut to crack. But the Eagles have remained consistently competitive even with Hurts getting over $50 million a year. (And I definitely don't think they would've won the Big Game with Kenny Pickett at QB.)

If you build a good team and draft well, you can win championships even with a second-tier guy on a big contract, like the Eagles did. If you try to cheap out and draft poorly, you aren't going to win championships even with a top-tier guy, like the Bengals are doing now. (Did we mention they just gave Trey Hendrickson permission to seek a trade?)

Hurts being overrated and underpaid is really weird.

Whoops, second time, overlooked the Rams somehow.

totally agree

however, if i'm Lynch, i'm waiting to see how Purdy performs in 2025 to ensure he is a second-tier guy. he could be. are we sure right now? nope

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you were spot on fw

Thanks for coming back to this [emoji106]

I just saw the headline. Guessing it isn’t quite what it seems and it might end up being a 6 + incentives but he really is quite remarkable to be playing that position at such a high level at his age. He must be very smart as well as having an incredible body

Wash appear to be really going for it which I guess is the right thing to do given where they’re at with Daniels. I do wonder (I don’t know) whether they rode variance very well last year and might return to the pack but it must be great for their fans to a) be excited about the team again and b) have an aggressive and seemingly competent FO

Or maybe they're bad for twenty. See Bears, Jets, Browns, Bengals before Joe etc. Just move on and draft a QB, everyone can do it!

Ok, so it's Cousin 2.0, as already said.

Well one just won the Superbowl. Calling Purdy average is ridiculous, he's not replacement level.

If it were up to this forum Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Joe and Herbert (for some ****ing reason even though he hasn't sniffed the kind of success Purdy has) would be the only QBs getting paid

Rap reported $8mm guaranteed worth up to $9.5mm

today i witnessed live with mine own eyes the cancelling of Matthew Stafford

Spoiler

Show

it's a bluntish instrument but I do believe QBR is the best/least worst overall QB stat organiser easily available (I couldn't find the lists by year of Approx Value)

(if anyone has access to it or a better advanced stat measure, pl share)

Purdy's last two years he has come 1st and 7th in QBR

Before we start getting too excited about supporting cast and Kyle's coaching, the previous 5 years under Kyle the QBs came.....

- Jimmy G (a C+ QB who was also paid close to the top of the market at the time btw) 16th, 13th and 12th
- Nick Mullins (your standard late rd flier who probably outperformed most late rd QBs) 30th and 21st

He might not be as tall and big armed as Herbert or as all rd 'talented' as the others and that's why he as a 7th rd pick. But he is clearly an above average QB with a decent arm, great accuracy and smarts and above average mobility. I would argue that he is at the bottom end of the second tier and thus in the top 10 or at the very lowest, 11th.

1. Pat, Josh, Lamar, Joe

2. Jalen, Herbert, Jayden, Stafford, Goff. Brock, Stroud,

Perhaps he doesn't have the potential to get into the first tier like a few of the others do but I'm not sure there's an argument for anyone other than the QBs above to be ranked ahead of him.

Eh, he's been one of the most efficient QBs in the league since he got the job. First in most efficiency metrics in 2013, 6th in ANY/A last year even in a "down" year and with his top receivers missing significant time.

Now, he's not an elite guy who makes the offense by himself like Lamar / Allen / Mahomes, but he's proven he operates the 49ers offense very well, and Shanahan doesn't actually like QBs who are talented enough to become the system instead of running his system. They dumped a guy they spent three firsts on to go with Purdy instead. He's only 25 and QBs typically peak at 28-32. With all that in mind, I feel like lowballing him or not extending him is just cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Lol. I did catch myself!

(Does Stafford count as overpaid and "average"?)

Nix is poised to enter the feel wrath list at 2.

Not kidding-- I thought he looked very good being thrown into a horrible situation, almost definitely the worst OL+WR crew in the league.