Official Online NLHE Chat Thread

What do you guys think of Precision Poker on Upswing? I have never heard of Alexandre Vuilleumier, but that is probably because I live under a rock.

The content looks interesting, and I was happy with Uri's course a couple years ago. But I do worry that it is trying to cover too much ground in too little time... tournaments, cash games, solvers, MDA, and opponent specific reads in just 5ish hours.

I just folded AA on an AdTd8c3d8d runout in a 3way all-in because I didn't notice that I boated up on the river. They had QdJs and A8s, and I was like "wait, why did the flush lose? OMG I FOLDED THE NUTS AND LOST $470!!!"

I had to sit out for a minute because I was laughing so hard. Ivey did that **** twice on TV, so he has likely done it dozens of times in his life. It's part of the human experience.

brutal

Yeah, I've barely heard of this guy and on the website it advertises a "15bb/100" winrate at 2knl which is a pretty stupid claim to even make. Would pass on this, and the majority of course anyway.

I think that they had the nerve to take his 5 BB/hr live 10/20 winrate and call it 15 BB/100 without mentioning the "live" part. 15 BB/100 live is $100/hr. 15 BB/100 online is $600+/hr... just entirely different levels. That is quite scummy of them imo.

It is Upswing.

Just yesterday I asked in a Slack group about members' win rates on Ignition over the past several months, to find out if they were experiencing the same drop-off in winrate that people have been reporting on 2p2. The response I got from of the group members was, "I’ve been beating [Ignition] 100NL for about 30bb/100 for about the last 3 months or so. Was beating 50NL for the same winrate for many months prior."

I mean, maybe he is lying, or otherwise incorrect, but I don't think either is the way to bet.

I was sitting next to a friendly, outgoing senior citizen at Commerce 40/80 one time who was playing about 70/5... just a textbook loose-passive. He told me that he never has a losing poker trip and uses his winnings to fund his fishing trips. Even though he seemed like a really nice person, I still don't believe him.

I have noticed there are way more good regs on there now so the games have gotten a lot tougher. There is still plenty of recs but it is noticeably tougher. Ive switched to omaha recently. I only play holdem now if there are few omaha tables available. Of course on the 1 holdem table i played i lost a 400bb pot to a moby dick w a set of 2s to 42s 2pair when it went runner runner putting trips on board for a bigger boat. So they are still out there. Glad to contribute to another reg being able to win those 400bb back from him : )

huh? There's no maybe, he is incorrect. There's 0% chance a 30bb winrate is his real winrate in the aggregate.

Anyone can have a 30bb winrate over a short sample, you just need to run hot.

30bb winrate is obviously not sustainable though. If you believe it is sustainable then you don't understand where winrate comes from.

I'll let Patrick Howard explain it since he is much better than me.

For the 100nl prodigy (lol) in your slack channel who claims a 30bb winrate, he would have to be playing with at least 3 recreational players at all times. And most likely 4 recreational players. If it's 3 recs it's -90bb/3 = 30bb winrate but rake makes it less.

Complete nonsense.

As an aside, here is my month so far. Obviously I'm a 26bb winner. Put me in coach!

in that example the recreational is -30bb/100 and he therefore attributes 6bb to 5 other regs at the table
but surely the recreational loser of -30bb/100 has to pay rake too. And his rake is likely above average because he plays too many hands and is too calldown happy.

so in the example where regs pay 4bb/100 (and lets say the rec pays 6bb, its probably more but for the sake of argument) this is the math:
recreational loses 30bb/100, of which 6 goes to operator. 24 goes to other players.
5 regs take 4.8bb/100 each but are paying 4bb/100 so on average these regs win 0.8bb/100 and not 2bb/100
And with a rake of 6bb/100 they will not be breakeven, they will be losing

Having played 100 on there as my primary game up until recently yeah 30bb is ridiculous.

idk what it is, but I'm throwing my name in the hat as someone who has run super bad on Ignition in particular. Only 75k hands, but it's the worst I've run anywhere in my life by a wide margin. Though I was only a 4bb/100 EV winner and $0 actual. Whatever it was I had to try something else if nothing else but for a mental break.

Ironically I've moved back to ACR and trying out Global which have been better so far. I actually win some of the time I'm a 95% favorite which is nice.

I would guess that there are plenty of pools at 100NL and 200NL where a lot of people can win at 15bb+/100. I've been at 15 in my pool since mid-November, and there are definitely skills and concepts that I'm lacking. I just don't punt and spew off stacks and play pretty well against the fish. Only 25k hands, but I haven't run especially great or horribly, and that makes me think better players than me will at least be capable of winning at the same rate.

Are you on a fenced in site?

I do think 15bb is possible on those sites but 30bb is just too much imo.

Yeah. There's no way that 30 is possible over the long term. 15 shouldn't be controversial.

Yeah 15 is not. Even I was at 15 in my first 15k hands until the doomswitch button was pressed.

Last year my 2 best months were

20bb over 13.5k hands
35bb over 11.7k hands

Then during a 3 month stretch

21bb over 37k hands

even 30 is possible if you game select like crazy

Also WR wont depend somewhat on position it will depend a LOT! Last time i check for that average WR of reg in my DB was around 2bb, it was 10bb if fish was to their right and close to zero if fish was sitting to the left side.

what stake are we talking about?
on 10nl it should be doable to get a 30bb winrate without only playing 1 or 2 tables, but on 100nl i would say its impossible while getting a decent hands/hour over a large enough sample

I had a 5bb wr at 200 last year (soft ass ring fenced site tho) and I ****ing suck.

Talking about 15-30 at 100 or 200 is extremely rare and basically exclusive to ring-fenced sites that are not available to 95% of players. The way the games play on those sites I'm pretty sure I could train someone to win at 5bb in a week.

As for the 95% on GG, ACR, Stars, Party, even Ignition (which is not ringfenced like the regulated sites, there are lots of strong South American and Canadian players), 15bb is impossible. Hell, 10 is basically unheard of. I've looked at the data as well for GG/ACR, even with rakeback there's almost nobody cracking the 10bb mark and you'd have to game select so hard you'd probably get banned for bumhunting on GG.

As for the guy who claims he wins at 30bb on ignition, most likely he is a fishreg who has sunrun for 10k or so hands and thinks its a sample.

One thing that continues to shock me is that lying so rarely comes up as the most likely explanation for these things. In the PTR era, countless 2p2ers were exposed for lying about their winrates over the years when they could barely break even on PTR. They talked a big game in the forums and regularly posted fake results.

A high % of poker players are liars and/or delusional. If someone is winning online for 15+ BB/100, what is their incentive to share this information? They have obviously made some intuitive leaps that are way over peoples' heads. Wouldn't it make more sense to stfu and go crush nosebleeds on GG?

Feb 2024

Ran and played bad.

Onwards to March.

As far as bad months go, that's a good one! Blame the colluding bots and wreck them in March imo.