LeBron > Jordan GOAT Super AIDS Containment, solved #22999 post by Matt R. (addendum #23174)

Totally agree.

Kobe wasnt just aesthetically pleasing in his actions. The whole Mamba Mentality alpha male thing displayed a killer instinct that we wanna see from our athletes in every sport.

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Effective FG% on all jumpshots for MJ, Kobe, Lebron


Lebron 2004: 35.6%, 324/998
Lebron 2005: 39.9%, 400/1136
Lebron 2006: 41.7%, 423/1166
Lebron 2007: 39.5%, 372/1066
Lebron 2008: 39.4%, 338/1001
Lebron 2009: 42.2%, 366/1024
Lebron 2010: 43.4%, 356/970
Lebron 2011: 45.4%, 393/968
Lebron 2012: 43.7%, 290/726
Lebron 2013: 49.0%, 333/784
Lebron 2014: 47.0%, 288/736
Lebron 2015: 43.1%, 280/788
Lebron 2016: 39.0%, 181/543
Lebron 2017: 44.8%, 226/643
Lebron 2018: 47.2%, 304/802
Lebron 2019: 47.2%, 210/563


Bryant 2000: 38.5%, 328/851
Bryant 2001: 43.0%, 460/1141
Bryant 2002: 41.8%, 478/1184
Bryant 2003: 44.1%, 597/1494
Bryant 2004: 40.3%, 282/787
Bryant 2005: 43.5%, 346/947
Bryant 2006: 46.5%, 709/1724
Bryant 2007: 46.7%, 556/1358
Bryant 2008: 44.6%, 468/1217
Bryant 2009: 45.0%, 519/1285
Bryant 2010: 43.8%, 444/1226


Jordan 1997: 51.2%, 727/1528
Jordan 1998: 42.4%, 600/1449

^^^Lebron shoots about 39-40% at the higher volumes of 1000 attempts, while MJ/Kobe were shooting 45% or more at 1000-1500 attempts

Lebron needed lower volume of 700 attempts to have better efficiency of 45% or more.

So Lebron lacks the jumpshooting skill to shoot well at high volume, while MJ/Kobe shot great at high volume due to elite jumpshooting skill.. Since Lebron cannot have high jumpshooting volume due to low efficiency, he must execute ball-dominant rim attack game, which prevents elite ball movement and offensive sophistication that can compete well on the championship level (22-33).

..................eFG% All Jumpshots

Lebron 2006....... 41.7%, 423/1166 <----- lebron's highest VOLUME year
Lebron 2013....... 49.0%, 333/784 <----- lebron's highest EFFICIENCY year

Jordan 1997........ 51.2%, 727/1528 <----- nearly twice the volume with better efficiency than lebron's best

1st options and franchise players are more than just statistical robots like secondary or tertiary options are.. So OTHER STATS must be evaluated to determine the level of chemistry, strategic capacity/coaching, and brand of basketball (such as ball movement) that a 1st options' skillset yields.. Let's perform this advanced statistical analysis...

Kobe has far superior jumpshooting stats (volume & efficiency - see previous post), which allows a superior assisted rate (playing off-teammates, aka off-ball) and therefore higher ball movement/team assists and great chemistry with in-out bigs, who saw statistical highs alongside him - these are all verifiable stats.. Otoh, Lebron has weak jumpshooting volume and efficiency, so he cannot have high assisted rates/play off teammates and therefore has low team assists.. His low assisted rate/inability to play off-teammates also prevents him from fitting with in-out bigs like Love, Bosh, Pau, or Shaq, who all cratered and saw statistical lows alongside him.. Again, all of this is verifiable stats, aka low assisted rate causing low-assist teams and bad fits (teammates cratering).

Essentially, Lebron turns high-assisted rate position like forward into low-assisted rate one, thereby lowering the assist capacity of the team.. His scoring is "elastic" with teammates, which means that it fluctuates in direct correlation with how much he has the ball in his hands and how little his teammates do.. Otoh, Kobe's goat scoring diversity was "inelastic", so it remains high even when teammates have the ball in their hands a lot, because he was a goat assist-target (off-ball).

Of course there are other stats like TO's, FT's, clutch ppg and clutch plus/minus that tell the story as well.

I don't understand the fixation on 2-point jumpshots

Elite jumpshooting volume and efficiency allows better fits, such as playing off "in-out" bigs like Pau, Bosh, Love or Shaq and winning the max with them.. (repeating with a sidekick that was worse than Bosh or Love)

Jumpshooting on 2's or 3's simply allows higher assisted rates (off-ball) and therefore more ball movement/brand of ball/chemistry, which allows winning with less.. (repeating with a sidekick that was worse than Bosh or Love)

Ultimately, higher Jumpshooting volume & efficiency allows better team offense by allowing better ball movement, strategic capacity/coaching, fits, and less turnovers than ball-dominance.

Ball-dominators have "elastic" scoring, so it fluctuates in direct correlation with how much they have the ball in their hands and how little their teammates do.. Otoh, Kobe's higher jumpshooting volume and off-ball ability made his scoring "inelastic", so it doesn't change even when teammates have the ball in their hands a lot, because they're assisting him (assisted buckets, aka assisted rate).

3 pointers? Not cool.
2 pointers? Super Cool.

Can you work out the actual percentages for all season combined, because Kobe and LeBron are a lot closer than 5%.

Assuming fallguy's numbers are correct (they probably aren't), I got 42.6% for Lebron, 43.9% for Kobe and 42.4% for MJ (excluding the 96-97 season). Of course, it's much better to just use career eFG% instead - it's 54.7% for Lebron, 50.9% for MJ and 48.2% for Kobe. Adjusted for the league, Lebron's been 8% better than league average, MJ 4% better than league average and Kobe was actually 1% worse than league average.

He's also decided not to include the start and end of Kobe's career (most of them being below 43.9%).

He's also decided not to include LeBron's last handful of seasons (all of which are higher than 42.6%).

I wouldn't be shocked if LeBron actually ends up with a higher eFG than Kobe on jump shots.

Solid list imo

Part of the reason that Jordan's eFG on jumpshots is so much better than Lebron's is because in addition to Jordan's massive edge in 2-point jumpshooting, he shot 37.4% on threes in 1997, on 3.6 attempts.. It turns out that Jordan always shot at today's standard when he had today's volume (3+ attempts) - this includes any regular season of his career, or playoffs series from the regular line.. He otherwise took "bailout volume", aka forced shots at the end of shot-clock, which everyone shoots poorly on - these many seasons of very low "bailout" volume is exclusively the reason that Jordan's career 3-point percentage isn't higher, since he always shot at today's standard when he had today's volume (3+ attempts).

Without practicing the shot, Jordan had a title run of 39% on 4 attempts (93' Playoffs & Finals), and the 92' Finals was 5 attempts at 42%.. Jordan shot 39% in all series of 3+ attempts (regular line), or 36.4% in regular season games of 3+ attempts from 85-93'.. Again, there are zero instances of Jordan shooting below today's standard when he had 3+ attempts, while there are tons of series or seasons that Lebron had weak efficiency at 3 attempts, or more.

Of course, Kobe proved that he was a good 3-point shooter many times, and the only reason for any fluctuation in his efficiency is due to the format - he largely missed Curry's spacing format where players get to stand around and wait for kickouts - 80% of today's threes are either "open" (4-6 feet from closest defender), or "wide open" (6+ feet) - Kobe never got this 3-point machine format that max produces open 3-point looks for everyone - his 3-point launching was ahead of its time but without the optimal format to minimize deviation of his efficiency.

And again, Kobe repeated with a 2nd option that was worse than Love or Bosh, so his jumpshooting volume and efficiency succeeded, regardless of the mix of 2's and 3's - his mix won more with less than Lebron's because he was capable of elite jumpshooting volume & efficiency.. The reality is that Kobe and MJ's jumpshooting volume is completely unmatched in history - they're the only guys that made over 700 jumpers in a season, which allowed maximum capacity for ball movement.

Lebron shoots about 39-43% at 1000 attempts, while MJ/Kobe were shooting 43-51% or more at 1000 attempts and up to 1500 attempts (50% more than Lebron's highest volume season).

Lebron needed lower volume of 700 attempts to have better efficiency of 45% or more.

Since Lebron cannot have high jumpshooting volume due to low efficiency, he must execute ball-dominant rim attack game, which prevents elite ball movement and offensive sophistication that can compete well on the championship level (22-33).. Otoh, Kobe and MJ's vastly higher jumpshooting volume (and efficiency) allowed greater capacity for ball movement.

Keep in mind that Kobe and Jordan are the only players in history to make over 700 jumpers in a season, since the stats began tracking in 1997, so their goat jumpshooting volume (coupled with elite efficiency) allowed max capacity for ball movement and strategic capacity/coaching.. And of course, the triangle and shaq NEEDED kobe to shoot all those jumpers.

The issue was jumpshooting volume.. Unlike Kobe or MJ, Lebron has low jumpshooting volume, so he can't fit with in-out bigs (Love, Pau, Shaq, Bosh) or have great ball movement, chemistry, and the best team offense.

At 1000 attempts, Lebron's jumpshooting efficiency craters, so he can't have high jumpshooting volume, which hurts ball movement and cannot fit with in-out bigs.. Otoh, the expert jumpshooting skill of MJ and Kobe allow the same jumpshooting efficiency at 50-100% more volume (1500 attempts).. The ability to maintain or even increase eFG despite nearly doubling the volume allows goat fits with in-out bigs, who require high-scoring teammates to stay out of the paint.

Of course, your career eFG numbers are irrelevant because they include at-rim shots (ball-dominance), and that's the issue we're talking about - Lebron's ball-dominant approach sacrifices ball movement, fits and brand of ball to achieve better individual efficiency.. That's why the story is always Lebron shooting well as chemistry and teammate performance suffers..

Given these inherently suboptimal natures of Lebron's game, his brand of ball requires exorbitant help and competes at a lottery caliber on the championship level (22-33) - he's incapable of producing "unbeatable" teams that mostly win for stretches (aka 3-peat or 3 in 5 like Curry or Duncan), and mostly loses regardless of cast.

You aren't valuing the most important aspects of scoring, which are quality of moves, diversity and shot-making ability.

Kobe is unmatched in these areas outside of MJ.

Who cares about percentages - it matters little unless they're really bad like Iverson, Westbrook, or the 3 times that Lebron lost as 1st option with under 40% shooting.. We all remember when Lebron was praised for playing exactly like Iverson in the 15' Finals, 08' ECSF, and 07' Finals by virtue of horrific efficiency at high volumes (chucking) and no defense.

So again, Kobe > Lebron by virtue of goat scoring diversity (i.e. jumpshooting volume and playing off teammates), which produced better chemistry (fits with in-out bigs, triangle), team ceilings (3-peat), and winning with less (winning with a 2nd option that was worse than Love or Bosh).

^^^ Am right winning the MJ vs Lebron debate so severely that now I'm even winning the Kobe vs Lebron debate?

Cause that's what it feels like

Nothing creates open shots better than attacking the rim

I don't know if you're winning the MJ/LeBron debate so much as people are sick of you not listening. I ignited the Kobe/LeBron discussion because (1) I'm not gonna argue that MJ isn't the GOAT and (b) you putting Kobe at #2 and LeBron at #12 is batshit stupid.

I don't know if the 80s was the greatest or toughest era. It was maybe the fastest of the more physical eras and is iconic for marking the beginning of basketball on the national stage. Moving from taped delays to must-see TV. But the 90s through the Curry-KD Warriors just kept getting better and better, IMO.

If we're just discussing peak, sure, Shaq and Bird get huge bumps, but I'm not just talking peak.

Just so we are clear. Jordan would be better at 3s if he took more volume. LeBron would be worse at mid ranges if he took more volume.

Anyway. I gave you a really simple task and you didn't do it. Because you know the result. LeBron had a better eFG% on jump shots than Kobe.

RIP Kobe > LeBron jump shooter.

Pure nonsense - literally the extreme opposite of the truth.

History shows that ball movement offenses led by expert jumpshooters (Curry, MJ, Bird), or fundamental bigs (Kareem, Jokic, Duncan) are the best and most frequent #1 offenses..

Otoh, Lebron never had a #1 offense.. His offenses always need for more talent because the "down-hill" skillset lacks chemistry - it isn't 5-man basketball and imposes spot-up roles.. The spot-up roles reduce teammates' assists, which yields low TEAM assists and a brand that has a lottery record on the championship level (22-33 in the Finals).

Ultimately, who cares if Lebron "elevates" guys into spot-up shooters that average 9 ppg like JR Smith - that isn't elevating anything at all - players cannot grow into good players alongside him because the ceiling is being a spot-up shooter.. Otoh, expert jumpshooters let the ball move and are assisted by teammates, so teammate develop into All-NBA such as Pau, Pippen or Klay - these guys developed into All-NBA after an expert jumpshooter carried them to titles.

In contrast to Curry, MJ or Kobe elevating teammates to All-NBA, Lebron's teammates were already good before him such as Love, Bosh, Wade, or Zydrunas... However, they were all reduced unless they were already an elite shooter (Kyrie, Mo), or simply better than him (AD).

You're putting a lot of effort into trying to misunderstand.

lebron WAS worse at mid-range when he took more volume

jordan WAS better at threes when he took more volume

Again, none of the things I say are subjective opinion - I'm merely pointing out the historical record that you have been trained to overlook, or simply overlook.

Who cares about a 90% FT shooter that only shoots 1 FT per game.

At high volume, Kobe's jumpshooting efficiency was elite and destroys Lebron's, who Lebron shot like trash at 1000 attempts (~40%) and never reached 1200 attempts... Meanwhile, Kobe attempted 1200-1700 jumpers at 45-47% each year from 2006 to 2010.

Since Lebron cannot shoot jumpshoots efficiently at high volume, he cannot have a high assisted rate to facilitate ball movement and fits, such as playing off the in-out bigs (love, pau, bosh), or other spotty-shooting ball-handlers like himself (westbrook, ingram, wade, hughes, clarkson, etc).

So there's no comparison of the jumpshooting skill and efficiency of Kobe and Lebron.. Kobe had expert jumpshooting skill, touch, and bag, which allowed elite jumpshooting efficiency at high volume and therefore great ball movement teams.. Otoh, Lebron is a low volume jumpshooter due to stone hands and feet, so he must have dominate the ball instead and produce weaker teams/chemistry.

And again, jumpshooting volume is the key, because it determines if a player has the goat skillset of expert jumpshooting that promotes great ball movement, chemistry and teams, or whether they have lower jumpshooting volume and dominate the ball instead... The greater jumpshooting volume and the associated chemistry and team benefits is why the jumpshooting skillset is the best skillset and superior to ball-dominators - this is why my top 10 is ranked the way it is with the best jumpshooters over the best ball-dominators.

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Regular Season

Hornacek.... 17.7 PER.. 2.9 bpm.. 0.153 ws/48.. 42.1 vorp on 33,964 min.. 15/3/5 on 58.2 ts
Klay.............. 16.4 PER.. 0.7 bpm.. 0.110 ws/48.. 14.4 vorp on 20,380 min.. 19/3/2 on 57.5 ts

Playoffs

Hornacek.... 16.5 PER.. 3.1 bpm.. 0.145 ws/48... 14.1 vorp on 4766 min.... 15/4/4 on 57.5 ts
Klay.............. 14.4 PER.. 0.7 bpm.. 0.091 ws/48..... 3.1 vorp on 4570 min.... 19/3/2 on 56.0 ts

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"I didn't start making all-defense until AFTER i won the title" - Tayshaun Prince

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvgxM1xZQN0&t=04m17s

YouTube

Tayshaun Prince on Defending Kobe in the Finals | Knuckleheads Podcast | Players' Tribune

It's called "winning spotlight"... For example, Gary Payton was 9x All-NBA without ever winning a title, so he was truly great on his own by not needing the winning spotlight to be seen as good - this is similar to other franchise guys like Wade, AD, Love, Bosh, Kyrie - they were all viewed as great on their own without needing the winning spotlight to get All-NBA.

Otoh, we see many non-franchise players and secondary producers like Klay, Pau, Pippen, Dumars, and Tony Parker need titles to get All-NBA - they need winning spotlight to be seen as great.. (btw, they're non-franchise players because they're non-elite producers that weren't tasked with building a team from scratch).

Accordingly, the most overrated players of all-time are sidekicks that needed the winning spotlight to be seen as good and All-NBA.. For example, look at Klay - he's probably a more egregious case than Pippen - he is destroyed by Hornacek across the board (previous post) but no one would think that Hornacek was a much better player because Hornacek was not part of a historic dynasty... (again, Klay and Hornacek are secondary options, who don't dictate brand of ball or chemistry like 1st options do, so their stats can be directly compared - secondary options are more like statistical robots).

Possible .
Depends where you are on the bell curve .
Since jordan was on the far left of it , yup the chances are higher he would have done better .
LeBron james would I guess be more on the middle of the bell curve I suppose so yeah he could do worse .