NFL Offseason 2026
it's the most wonderful time of the year for pretend GMs - the NFL Offseason!
Sure the games are fun, but the 7 months of
Jaxaboo could be a really fun combo for a few years. I'd consider joining you but my disdain for anything NFCEast other than the Cowboys runs too deep still.
Climb aboard!
It seems like a good spot for you imo. You might reverse jinx Jerruh's Kids to outperform. Or you might be riding a winner with the Giants. Win/win!
Spoiler
Or the Commanders could catch fire and you might feel twice as bad.
I'm probably going to ride with Jawsh one more year, the Other New York team. We'll see how the offseason goes.
Hot take: ARI over 4.5 wins. The other 3 teams in their division are o/u 10.5, which seems reasonable but I doubt all 3 go over.
Giants 75-1 to title... Worth a small fraction of my Trust Fun Money?
A playoff money line parlay would probably pay close to that. Assuming they don't get #1 seed and are priced +195 or better in each of the 4 games. That way you don't tie up $ for 4+ months and won't have to sweat them getting in playoffs.
Overround for SB odds usually is around 125%, which is not good obviously.
thx 4 info man, ur awesome
A playoff money line parlay would probably pay close to that. Assuming they don't get #1 seed and are priced +195 or better in each of the 4 games. That way you don't tie up $ for 4+ months and won't have to sweat them getting in playoffs.
Overround for SB odds usually is around 125%, which is not good obviously.
If I were gonna bet the Giants at this point (and I have), it wouldn't be with the hope that they eke into the playoffs and are underdogs in every game.
I will say, NYG 90-1 to win the SB was available, and 40-1 to win the NFC sounds better than 75-1 for the SB. In general, I'd agree with betting smaller or setting easier targets. Most people bet these futures and then inevitably hedge out when they get close to winning, paying the vig again.
Javonte Williams extends with the Boys 3/24-16. Can argue it both ways
decent value for a 25yo back without much tread on his tires who just rushed for 1200 yards and 11 TDs
OR...
paying for the outlier year and that should rather let him leave and go get another back on the 1yr $3m deal they paid Williams last season
EDIT: he also ranked 2nd in Broken Tackles and 6th in YAC/attempt and got his yards despite being below average in yards before contact. Good deal for Cowboys
If I were gonna bet the Giants at this point (and I have), it wouldn't be with the hope that they eke into the playoffs and are underdogs in every game.I will say, NYG 90-1 to win the SB was available, and 40-1 to win the NFC sounds better than 75-1 for the SB. In general, I'd agree with betting smaller or setting easier targets. Most people bet these futures and then inevitabl
The only way I would bet the futures would be a kelly overbet with good odds, so I could hedge later and make money conceivably either way. Something like 2-3u.
Hedging is usually the best way to go because 0EV hedges can usually be found later with adequate shopping. I got -4 -107 on Seahawks which was def +EV.
But you need to figure opportunity cost, and betting it now (even at 90:1 which seems +EV) needs to be discounted. I'd wait until closer to the season, tying $ up for 10+ months is a long time. Kalshi pays 3.25% interest, but you either get 99:1 or 49:1 because they don't have decimal bid/quotes, at least not yet for that market. Of course if you don't need to put up the cash then no big deal.
IRT +195 dogs all 4 games, if they get a home game sure they won't be much of a dog if at all. But they are likely < 3% to get HFA, and even if they average +150 for 4 games that is 38:1, with no care at all if they make the playoffs or not. And you can shop for the best odds on each game, instead of a future bet where you are stuck with the quoted odds from a single book. Also, game money lines are not very efficient, at least not as efficient as spreads. So line shopping will be rewarded.
I need to mention Seahawks as the exception to the rule. 60:1 future odds, and not much better than 3:1 on a 3 game playoff parlay.
Javonte Williams extends with the Boys 3/24-16. Can argue it both waysdecent value for a 25yo back without much tread on his tires who just rushed for 1200 yards and 11 TDsOR...paying for the outlier year and that should rather let him leave and go get another back on the 1yr $3m deal they paid Williams last seasonEDIT: he also ranked 2nd in Broken Tackles and 6th in YAC/attem
Seems fine, but I get your point. Gainwell will sign for much less and be a steal.
I don't think that was an unfair comparison. Neither guy is likely to go down as a top 15-20 QB of all time, but both had very solid and short elite peaks.
Chiefs pushed the can down the road another year on Pat's deal, creating a ton of room by turning his salary into a bonus and spreading the hit out over 5 years. https://overthecap.com/player/patrick-ma...interesting, as I assumed they would do an extension this offseason vs a restructure. As it stands next season he will have an $82m cap hit and $87m dead capThey could
mahomes looks like a top 5 QB when he has one of the best TEs to ever play the game along with a WR that is the best downfield threat the game has ever seen. When mahomes doesn't have the best pass catching duo the NFL has maybe ever seen he looks a league avg starting caliber QB.
The chiefs have known this for a long time which is why they brought in 8 or so pass catchers when they traded away tyreek. This is no different. They need to bring down his cap hit this year so they can reload more weapons for him.
itt bahbah calls mahomey a chump
I do think if Mahomes has another down year, we need to start reconsidering his place in the rankings
Unless I missed it, I (and Mark) are awaiting Dom's response to the question of if he thinks Brandon Beane is actually doing a good job.
Maybe I'll just add some keywords for him to find this post
Buffalo Bills suck Josh Allen overrated Chiefs Kansas City KC Mahomes Jackson Lamar Patriots Belichick Dolphins Jets Dominic
Mahomes passer rating w/ maybe the leagues best pass catching duo in history: 106.4
Mahomes passer rating w/o tyreek: 95
Other current recent elite QBs career passer rating:
Godgers: 102.2
lamar: 102.2
Russ Dangerous career excluding 6 games w/ the giants passer rating: 99.8
brees: 98.7
brady: 97.2
herbert: 96.3
cousins: 96.8
dak: 98.3
I'm not saying mahomes is a chump. He is a solid QB. He just isn't going to win you many games, but he won't lose you many either. He's the level of QB you have to surround with pass catchers which is why KC brought in an insane amount of pass catchers when tyreek left and why they are opening up cap space this offseason.
Welcome back bahbahmickey!!!
Saw a crazy stat.
For the 2nd straight year, every single defensive back at the combine this year ran a sub-4.6 40.
