I'd bet 6k on turn and then giggle when they all fold

They're not too strong after all these checks, and they're scared when someone barrels in multiway pots 😉 (they've also problems to defend their midvalue hands because of all the people left to act)

You may need one to two barrels depending on how things develop.

You've a fine enough drawing hand

Nah river is fold

Turn go into bluffing mode

Pre jam can be good depending on your assessment and reads of opps,

calling is perfectly fine too

It's close

Tryna just always be open to new ways things unfold, nothing's predetermined 😉 10 bigs a bit more than 5 bigs here, two opps, board they nicely connect with, striving for fold equity that may be relatively low or finding different value in an alternative strategy? Not that obvious, there are positives to other lines, but ultimately shoving flop will likely outweigh them.

Maybe we even want to bet something weird like 2/3 pot as pokerfan said.

with 5 bigs utg you're not forced allin in big next hand, you can still fold a decent chunk of your range in big or call, see flop with many hands, then donkshove or checkshove.

so you may want to shove decent hands utg, but not all. youll keep your 5+ big blind stack with fold equity potential if you pick up the blinds. you'll rarely get your shove through without being called though from utg with 5bigs. your shoving range will be wider than with 10 bigs, but no yolo crazy shoving.

some randos fold to 3 or 2 big blind shoves, it happens (rarely).

with 3 bigs in big you're somewhere around forced allin.
so if you're utg with 3 bigs, you may want to shove around top50% of your range.
say mp calls you, you win and stack up to 3+3+1+0.5+1 = 8.5bigs.

on the other hand, if you wait till you're in big with 3bigs, then get it in vs SB and win, you stack up to
3+3+1 = 7 bigs, or vs mp you stack up to 3+3+0.5+1 = 7.5bigs.

so you see 8.5bigs > 7.5bigs > 7bigs, another incentive to get it in as utg here and not wait for the next hand in the big.

another scenario: you shove 3bigs utg, mp calls, btn reshoves 25 bigs, mp folds. that's nuts for you, you're heads up for trippling++ up (until btn reveals crackers haha).

but consider the somewhat mirrored situation when you're with 3bigs in the big,

so say mp opens, btn 3bets, you're "forced" allin, mp flats the 3bet, and you're going 3way to the flop ... one player too much!

just showing that gtowiz is doing it, thus it may have a reason, and this reason may also be legit outside of gto.

so players can be doing it based on the same or any other reason, even if theyre not playing gto.

flats of premiums of decent players (even at these stakes many decent players can be found and their profiles, stats and plays make them somewhat identifiable) arent out of this world and can occur

exploitative framework or not, flatting is much better here imo than going for it pre

@asdamo

because of blind rollback,

do you think most $EV will be in just somehow sneaking into the final table (short),

like is there even less value in fighting for pots before the final table, winning chips and getting a decent stack or become chipleader?

welp @asdamo

50/50 that cutoff is somewhat adapting. my last post was quite independent of it though.

hard to estimate how many slowplays of premiums cutoff is going to have. I gave two reasons for them, you gave one against. I myself would slowplay as cutoff - three shoving stacks behind is a lot.

Why is utg minraising his 10BB stack? He could have AJs or something, and who knows how rando utg is going to react to a shove. He may just outright fold it pre. So slowplaying a premium will keep utg's bottom range stuff like AJs, ATs, KQs, TT, 99 in there.

Is utg actually going to open raise AK there? Probably not, AK will oftenly be a shove.

So utg's minraising range will be something along premiums (AA, KK, QQ, (JJ))) and AJs, ATs, KQs, TT, 99
[somewhat guessing into the dark, but that's all we can do]

Say you're cutoff and you wake up with AA. There's no problem in flatting instead of getting it in immediately, if UTG has a strong hand himself like KK, they will get it in postflop anyway for the remaining 10 bigs like always,

and if UTG has something like AJs or KQs, then we'd like him to flop a pair and then get it in postflop.

utg had 14% vpip and 9% pfr over around 150hands,

now I think we can somewhat confidently estimate his real pfr after that sample size to be in the range of 4% to 14%, so the top end of it isn't that tight after all (the bottom end is really tight though).

out of curiosity I checked a similar situation in chipEV for 20bigblind stacks in gtowiz, here's cutoff's strategy after utg's open:

yeah, even gtowiz is flatting KK and AA with almost 100% frequency here

okay, so my final thoughts:

cutoff has a lot of KK and AA in his range. reasons:

three reshoving stacks in next positions
utg minraising when he couldve shoved, thus utg has either some bottom of range hand that he will fold against a shove, or a strong hand that he will get in anyway post against cutoff

thats already a lot of combos that are ahead of us and that will like to hit the gas on the flop.

then it's reasonable to assume cutoff as an average opp of population will simply sometimes raise and sometimes flatcall holdings like KQ or JTdd on the flop with different reasons he may give himself [for raising, for example denying equity] or different feelings he may have.

so his range will look like

1) hands we'd like him to have:

{KQ, QJs} 10 combos
{JTdd, J9dd, T9dd, KJdd, KTdd} 5 combos

that makes 15 combos that in (estimated) 50% of the cases go into this line,
thus 7.5 combos

2) hands we're more or less indifferent him to have:

{AQ} 8 combos

3) hands we'd not like him to have:

{AA, KK, 55, 88} 15 combos

which I believe will in 75% of the cases go into this line,
hence around 11 combos.

11 combos > 7.5 combos and we easily fold.

KQoff may not even be in his preflop range here, of his one paired Qx holdings the frequency of him raising them on the flop will be greater toward stronger kickers (AQ much more often than QJs)

and UTG is left to act (he's pot committed, but either he's unaware of it, then it's irrelevant, and if he's aware of it, then he's much more likely to cbet a very strong hand than JJ or AK)

hence we fold flop

https://openpokertools.com/

for example [choose the range]

rando can call you with QJoff ;D

I want to know how average opponent (cutoff, somewhat reggish) is reasoning here.

Is it

{we're shallow stacked, I've around 50+% equity, thus let's get it in right here and now}?

For example, if he flopped decently with KQ (top pair) or JTdd (combo draw)?

Why would one want to raise a weaker q in cutoff's shoes? He may not exactly expect the bb to have a q that dominates him, but I'd see KQs likely as bottom of range of one paired queens for utg, so he will find himself under domination against utg like always.

If he dominates some one paired queen or other pair of BB but makes it fold on flop then he misses out on value.

I block nutflushdraws for cutoff, so there aren't many drawing hands left that are strong enough to get it in imo.

If he had a drawing hand, would he want to raise it on that wet board 3ways?

He may not generate a lot of folds as utg and bb can connect really well with that board, and utg cbetting here normally signals strength since a lot of hands from cutoff / bb will continue, so utg isn't incentivised to bluffcbet.

On the other hand, if he had a set, he may want to raise and get more value right here and now, because of the dynamic texture of the board, many things can change and scare his opponents who may not pay him off later if the flush completes, streets get in or an overcard to the q drops off.

In vacuum I'd oftenly open with a minraise here in your scenarios, or fold pre. You oftenly get, if the players aren't good, similar fold equity to your minraises as to your shoves, and exploitative opportunities postflop where you don't necessarily have to risk many additional chips if you don't have a set / overpair, and a small cbet may achieve a lot already. So minraising performs perfectly fine and we don't put all our chips at risk pre.

Any hand that you want to be called by on the river that is worse than yours will have to put you on a bluff, because they will only beat bluffs with stuff like JT or A9.

But what bluffs do you keep barelling into two players on the turn when you may not get many folds / may fail to realize your equity IP if someone raises? If it was QJ, with the 8 on the river QJ got there too.

So I believe that on average you'll have a hard time being called by worse if you don't have a concrete read on opponent (for example not being able to reason in above way and just calling off with any top pair since it's top pair).

And then the river bet can easily become a gift to your opponent any time he has QJ, T8, AT or any other hand that beats you that aren't few of

Yeah obv there's a reason why I put it out for discussion 😀

So about the flop, in every other scenario we don't fold of course, bet raise is pretty much the only one where I'm willing to consider it, but I'm not sure about the dynamic in that spot

@deuce

Ive 18 bigs [it always shows my stack after the hand]

Ill never shove there since utg had 9% pfr over all positions, not to speak of how tight he's gonna be from utg

the whole story, also postflop, is based on that dynamic. on gg, we all see the same stats [vpip, pfr, , ats, 3bet] on eachother. that means cutoff also possibly adapted

only if we knew that cutoff did not adapt Id consider shoving flop

@deuce

yeah it's prob really a lot of AK. Then it's also more JJ than QQ, KK or AA [in heavily decreasing frequency toward AA]. but mainly it's AK. I fold

to the 25k that Ive left after the hand you have to add the chips I put into the pot in the hand, so the sum of all the yellow lines in blinds / preflop / flop / turn / river columns

AMA @crzzy

do you time with flow?

say youve thoughts floating around in your mind like

{if I tanktime it may lead to him being tricked}
{if I wait longer I may find a thought that will reveal the whole truth to me and Ill know better what to do}
...

do you go with your feel and snaptime, time with spirit's flow, to keep your grip on the luckstream of the universe?

ahh, I think we can handle (how we play overpairs on the river) like this:

we distinguish two cases:

a) european reg spend the last 7 hours on the phone

he has no idea of your 3bet frequency, he bluffcatches with J9ss because he also likes to have two flush blockers against random squeezes (that you do not have) that may have become flushes.

into someone who bluffcatches only with good bluffcatchers, like having a flush himself, we do not want to jam 150% pot with overpairs of course as he will only call off with better.

b) attentive european reg

he may have a better idea of your 3betfrequency and thus the range you end up with on the river.

then a 150% river jam with aces may become a real possibility.

If we feel that he's not too strong on the river, by a live read (or spirit giving you a message), we can really consider such a play.

two negative points though:

1) taking less value means you dont bust when jamming into stronger hands

2) in general, a one paired hand may feel less strong on an emotional level than a set or a flush, and thus one may feel less inclined to bluffcatch with it. So you wouldn't really achieve the desired result despite our previous thoughts. we have to also consider the emotional level.

if he puts you on flush or nothing after your 150% pot river jam,

and assesses your 3bet frequency accordingly:

you've around one 3bet per hour, assuming 30 hands per hour that makes an approximated 3bet frequency of 3%,

so your range will be something along {AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, AKs, AQs}.

then he'll view your value as

{AKss, AQss}: 2 combos

and your bluffs as

{AsK, AsQ}: 8 combos.

With his holding J9ss he has a flush with no blockers to your flushes or bluffs. He's bluffcatching.

I think the occasional AA / KK overplay from some amateurish player will be not that likely here in his eyes.

If he assumes you have the nuts to oftenly take one of your 8 bluffing combos and jam river, then he's in a great spot to bluffcatch you.

if I think about it more, things get interesting, and I hope someone can help me to clarify my next thoughts:

by above reasoning he's in a spot where he'd want to bluffcatch you with any pair+ on the river, since youve many more bluffs than value in your 150% river jam, as weve elaborated.

thus you can valuebet all your overpairs for 150% and get great value on the river.

is this what one should really do in OP's shoes? or is it some sort of confusing / levelling yourself into bad play?

you dont need the right mindset before the game,

you need the right soulset, you need to be tuned in and breath spirit the game to play, you need mind and make decisive decisions with spirit inzoned

Yeah that's how it works. I play like that too. Wanted to open some sort of thread on that.

vladimir korzinin in triton is a recent energetic example.

Im improving and cleaning my ability to access that higher spirit flow.

When on marihuana I happen to move smoothly into that zone of luck and flow.

Ill take days off marihuana now.

In my most recent deepruns I couldnt hold that clean connection to spiritworld and I want to realize it now.

Ill improve my grip on spirit luck flow and Ill base my grip in spirit and flow.

here for 17 bigs, closest situation regards stacks / raising and shoving ranges that I can replicate there.

with the standard UTG GTO opening range (probs wider than from our UTG)

and quite a wide shoving range from UTG1

AQs becomes indifferent between calling and folding for a stack of 17bigs in LJ.

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